Policy and Co-ordination Committee
Policy and Co-ordination Committee
Due to Scottish Government guidance relating to Covid-19, this
meeting will be held remotely
Thursday, 13th May, 2021 - 10.00 a.m.
AGENDA Page Nos.
1. APOLOGIES FOR ABSENCE
2. DECLARATIONS OF INTEREST – In terms of Section 5 of the Code of
Conduct, members of the Committee are asked to declare any interest in
particular items on the agenda and the nature of the interest(s) at this stage.
(i) Policy and Co-ordination Committee of 1st April, 2021. 3-8
(ii) The following Sub-Committee minutes are submitted for noting only:-
• Environment and Protective Services of 25th March, 2021 9-11
• Economy, Tourism, Strategic Planning and Transportation of 12-15
8th April, 2021
• Assets and Corporate Services of 22nd April, 2021 16-18
4. FIFE COUNCIL REFORM AND RECOVERY PROGRAMME: 19-46
WORKSTREAM UPDATE – EMPLOYABILITY AND POSITIVE
DESTINATIONS FOR ALL OUR SCHOOL LEAVERS – Report by the Head
of Education and Children's Services.
5. PASSENGER TRANSPORT REFORM AND RECOVERY PLANNING: FIFE 47-55
BUS RECOVERY SERVICE IMPLEMENTATION PLAN – Joint report by the
Executive Director (Enterprise and Environment) and Executive Director
(Finance and Corporate Services).
6. EDINBURGH AND SOUTH EAST OF SCOTLAND CITY REGION DEAL 56-66
AND REGIONAL GROWTH FRAMEWORK – Report by the Executive
Director (Enterprise and Environment).
7. EDINBURGH AND SOUTH EAST OF SCOTLAND CITY REGION DEAL: 67-210
DUNFERMLINE STRATEGIC TRANSPORTATION INTERVENTION
MEASURES (STIM) BUSINESS CASE – Report by the Head of Planning.
8. LEVENMOUTH RECONNECTED PROGRAMME – Report by the Head of 211-257
Assets, Transportation and Environment.
9. SCOTLAND EXCEL JOINT COMMITTEE - SUBSTITUTE MEMBER – 258-259
Report by the Head of Legal and Democratic Services.
Head of Legal and Democratic Services
Finance and Corporate Services
Fife, KY7 5LT
6th May, 2021.
If telephoning, please ask for:
Michelle McDermott, Committee Officer, Fife House
Telephone: 03451 555555, ext. 442238; email: Michelle.McDermott@fife.gov.uk
Agendas and papers for all Committee meetings can be accessed on
2021 PC 141
THE FIFE COUNCIL - POLICY AND CO-ORDINATION COMMITTEE – REMOTE
1st April, 2021. 10.00 a.m. – 1.10 p.m.
PRESENT: Councillors David Alexander (Convener), David Barratt, John Beare,
Tim Brett, Altany Craik, Dave Dempsey, Linda Erskine, David Graham,
Judy Hamilton, Andy Heer, Linda Holt, Helen Law, Mino Manekshaw,
Karen Marjoram, Tony Miklinski, David Ross, Fay Sinclair, Jonny Tepp
(substituting for Donald Lothian), Ross Vettraino and Craig Walker.
ATTENDING: Steve Grimmond, Chief Executive; Eileen Rowand, Executive Director
(Finance and Corporate Services), Morag Ferguson, Head of Legal
and Democratic Services, Laura Robertson, Finance Operations
Manager and Michelle McDermott, Committee Officer, Legal and
Democratic Services, Finance and Corporate Services; Gordon Mole,
Head of Business and Employability Services and Adam Dunkerley,
Opportunities Fife Partnership Manager, Business and Employability;
Paul Vaughan, Head of Communities and Neighbourhoods Service,
Craig Waddell, Corporate Development Service Manager and
Andrew Stokes, Programme Manager (Communities), Communities
and Neighbourhoods Service; Derek Crowe, Senior Manager (Roads
and Transportation Services) and Tony McRae, Service Manager,
Passenger Transport Services, Assets, Transportation and
Environment; Fiona McKay, Divisional General Manager, Health and
Social Care; and Kathy Henwood, Head of Education and Children's
Services (Children and Families and Criminal Justice).
279. CHANGE OF MEMBERSHIP
The Committee agreed to note that Councillor Linda Holt had replaced Councillor
Neil Crooks as a member of the Committee.
(i) Policy and Co-ordination Committee of 4th March, 2021.
The Committee approved the minute.
(ii) The following minutes were submitted for noting:-
• Assets and Corporate Services Sub-Committee of 4th March, 2021
• Education and Children's Services Sub-Committee of 16th March, 2021
• Community and Housing Services Sub-Committee of 18th March, 2021
The minutes were noted.
281. DECLARATIONS OF INTEREST
No Declarations of Interest were submitted in terms of Standing Order No. 7.1.
282. CHANGING TO DELIVER PROGRAMME: CONCLUSION
The Committee considered a report by the Chief Executive updating members on
the conclusion of the Changing to Deliver Programme and benefits achieved.
The Committee noted the terms of the report.
Councillors David Barratt and Helen Law joined the meeting during consideration of the
283. NO-ONE LEFT BEHIND: COMIMSSIONING FRAMEWORK
The Committee considered a report by the Head of Business and Employability
Services which set out Fife's proposed approach to delivering employability
services under the Scottish Government No One Left Behind framework and
requested members to approve the Fife Framework for procuring provision.
(1) noted the consultation undertaken with service users, delivery organisations and the Opportunities Fife Partnership in the design of the procurement
framework for employability services in Fife;
(2) noted the No One Left Behind Fife procurement framework for employability services for the period 2021/2022 as set out in Appendix 1 to the report;
(3) approved the allocations from the Council's allocations of No One Left Behind, Young Person's Guarantee and Parental Employability Support Fund for delivery of services to adults, young people, families and those requiring specialist support as set out in Appendix 2 to the report, subject to confirmation of funding from the Scottish Government; and
(4) delegated to the Head of Business and Employability Services, in consultation with the Head of Finance and Head of Legal and Democratic Services, to complete all necessary contracting arrangements for delivery of the No One Left Behind Fife programme from the end of April, 2021.
The meeting adjourned at 11.15 a.m. and reconvened at 11.20 a.m.
Councillor Linda Holt left the meeting during consideration of the above item.
The meeting adjourned at 11.45 a.m. and reconvened at 11.55 a.m.
284. PASSENGER TRANSPORT REFORM AND RECOVERY PLANNING
The Committee considered a report by the Head of Assets, Transportation and Environment which set out the findings of the Passenger Transport Reform and
Recovery Review and sought approval to implement the Action Plan. The report also provided feedback on the Spaces for People and Active Travel policy issues
that were added to the Working Group remit.
Councillor Tim Brett, seconded by Councillor Jonny Tepp, moved the following:-
"It is recommended that the Committee:-
(i) Notes the work of the Recovery Group in looking at a range of passenger transport issues, but believes that it is premature to make a decision on
the rail concession scheme until there has been further consultation with service users about this and that a full environmental assessment should
(ii) Agrees that the remit from Policy & Co-ordination Committee on 8th October ,2020 to consider(i) Spaces for people and(ii) Active Travel
has been discharged".
Councillor David Ross, seconded by Councillor John Beare, moved the following:-"Replace recommendation iii) from the report as follows and renumber para iv) iii) authorises the Executive Director Enterprise and Environment to prepare for
and implement the Fife Bus Recovery service expansion by April 2022 including the requirement for one-off expenditure for the purchase of buses
in the current year, and remit to the Service and Finance to identify funding options and bring them back to the next Policy and Co-ordination Committee.
iv) agrees to continue the current rail concession scheme but to review this and develop a new scheme that meets the needs of and delivers more equitably
for the residents of Fife, taking account of the changes to the rail service in Fife, including the extension of the Fife Circle to Leven, the ending of the Scotrail franchise in 2022, and the need to encourage passengers back onto the railway as part of the recovery from the pandemic".
With the agreement of the Convener, the mover of the motion withdrew their motion and agreed to support the Administration's amendment with the following
extra recommendation being included:-
"agreed that if any changes to the rail concession scheme were proposed, an environmental impact assessment would be carried out and that the consultation
would be undertaken with service users and the community on the proposed changes."
The amendment was accordingly agreed.
(1) noted the deliberative, detailed and rigorous process used to reach a Working Group consensus on the proposed Action Plan for Passenger Transport Reform and Recovery (as detailed in Appendix 1 of the report);
(2) endorsed the Passenger Transport Reform and Recovery Action Plan resulting from the 6 month review by the Passenger Transport Working Group;
(3) authorised the Executive Director (Enterprise and Environment) to prepare for and implement the Fife Bus Recovery service expansion by April 2022 including the requirement for one-off expenditure for the purchase of buses in the current year and remitted to the Service and Finance to identify funding options and bring them back to the next Policy and Co-ordination Committee;
(4) agreed to continue the current rail concession scheme but to review this and develop a new scheme that met the needs of and delivered more equitably for the residents of Fife, taking account of the changes to the rail service in Fife, including the extension of the Fife Circle to Leven, the ending of the Scotrail franchise in 2022 and the need to encourage passengers back onto the railway as part of the recovery from the pandemic;
(5) agreed that the remit from Policy and Co-ordination Committee on 8th October, 2020 to consider (i) Spaces for People and (ii) Active Travel had been discharged; and
(6) agreed that if any changes to the rail concession scheme were proposed, an environmental impact assessment would be carried out and that
consultation would be undertaken with service users and the community on the proposed changes.
285. FUTURE OF COMMUNITY FACILITIES AND LEISURE
The Committee considered a report by the Executive Director (Communities) which presented the conclusions from work undertaken to shape the future of
Community Facilities and Leisure in Fife in recovery from the impacts of the pandemic.
(1) noted the challenges and risks encountered as a result of the coronavirus pandemic and consequent impact on attendances and income and the Council's response to that;
(2) noted the ongoing development of the physical activity and sport strategy;
(3) agreed the approach to developing the policy on pricing and concessions to improve customer access and inclusive participation;
(4) agreed the improved operating arrangements for the management and delivery of sport and leisure in Fife; and
(5) approved the development work on new models and delivery arrangements for community assets.
286. ANNUAL UPLIFT IN PAYMENTS TO THIRD PARTY PROVIDERS AND
SOCIAL CARE CHARGES FOR 2021/22
The Committee considered a report by the Director of Health and Social Care providing the Council with information on the proposed uplift in payments to Third
Party Providers of Social Care Services for financial year 2021/22.
(1) noted the current position regarding the rates increase paid for the care of residents who had been placed in long-term care in a registered care home
setting and that the increase for 2021/22 was subject to ongoing negotiations and had yet to be agreed by COSLA and Scottish Care;
(2) noted the proposed increase in the Free Personal and Nursing Care
(3) agreed the revised charges for Social Care Services for 2021/22 as detailed in Appendix 1 to the report with the exception of the charges for Meals on Wheels for 2 courses; Meals on Wheels for 3 courses; Community Alarms; and Day Centre Rate which were to be frozen for 2021/22.
287. ASSISTING UNACCOMPANIED CHILDREN AS PART OF THE ASYLUM
SEEKER DISPERSAL SCHEME
The Committee considered a report by the head of Education and Children's Services which sought continued agreement on the proposed assistance to
enable young people to come to Fife as part of the UK Government's Asylum Seeker Dispersal Scheme and updated members on the four young people who
arrived in Fife following Committee agreement in July, 2020.
The Committee agreed:-
(1) to an offer being made to COSLA and the Home Office to assist young people to be accommodated and supported in Fife as part of the Dispersal Scheme when resource availability permitted; and
(2) that the multi-agency response to support children coming to Fife would be co-ordinated through the Syrian Vulnerable Persons Core Group.
288. TREASURY MANAGEMENT AND INVESTMENT STRATEGIES 2021-24
The Committee considered a report by the Executive Director (Finance and Corporate Services) outlining the revised Treasury Management Strategy and Investment Strategy of the Council.
The Committee approved:-
(1) the Treasury and Investment Strategies; and
(2) the Statutory Repayment of Loans Fund Advances Policy.
289. DUNFERMLINE FLOOD PREVENTION SCHEME
The Committee, under Section 50(A)(4) of the Local Government (Scotland) Act 1973, excluded the public from the meeting for the following item of business on
the grounds that it involved the likely disclosure of exempt information as defined in Paragraphs 6, 8 and 12 of Part 1 of Schedule 7A to the Act. The Committee considered a report by the Head of Legal and Democratic Services providing information of the settlement of the final claim against the parties who carried out work for the Council in connection with the Dunfermline Flood Prevention Scheme and reviewed the circumstances leading to the claims, the handling of those claims and identified lessons learned for the Council.
(1) noted that resolution of the claim against the parties had been achieved by means of mediation, with a settlement in the Council's favour;
(2) noted the particular circumstances of this project that gave rise to the subsequent claims in respect of this matter;
(3) noted the financial overview of the project and the settlement of the subsequent claims; and
(4) noted the lessons learned and consequential improvements in process and procedure for projects of a similar nature.
THE FIFE COUNCIL - ENVIRONMENT & PROTECTIVE SERVICES SUB-COMMITTEE REMOTE
25 March, 2021 10.00 a.m. – 11.55 a.m.
PRESENT: Councillors Ross Vettraino (Convener), David Barratt, Rod Cavanagh,
Gavin Ellis, David Graham, Sharon Green-Wilson, Jean Hall-Muir,
Andy Heer, Gordon Langlands, Alice McGarry, Derek Noble,
Dominic Nolan, Jonny Tepp and Jan Wincott.
ATTENDING: Ken Gourlay, Head of Service, Derek Crowe, Senior Manager (Roads
& Transportation Services), Rick Haynes, Lead Consultant, Flooding,
Shoreline and Harbours, Assets, Transportation and Environment;
Nigel Kerr, Head of Protective Services, Lisa McCann, Service
Manager, Environmental Health (Food & Workplace Safety),
Economy, Planning & Employability Services; Elizabeth Mair,
Committee Officer, Legal & Democratic Services.
Stuart Neill, External Affairs Manager, Kevin Poot, Technical Manager
and Kylie Bishop, Environmental Engineer, ExxonMobil (for Para. 183
only); Chief Superintendent Derek McEwan, Police Scotland.
APOLOGIES FOR ABSENCE:
Councillor Judy Hamilton.
181. DECLARATIONS OF INTEREST
No declarations of interest were submitted in terms of Standing Order No. 7.1.
The Sub-Committee considered the minute of meeting of the Environment and Protective Services Sub-Committee of 28th January 2021.
The Sub-Committee agreed to approve the minute.
183. PRESENTATION - FIFE ETHYLENE PLANT, MOSSMORRAN
Kevin Poot, Technical Manager and Kylie Bishop, Environmental Engineer, ExxonMobil, gave a presentation providing details of a proposed new enclosed
ground flare to reduce flaring, noise and vibration from the Mossmorran Plant, along with information on their Environmental Monitoring Plan. Following this,
Mr Poot, Ms Bishop and Stuart Neill, External Affairs Manager, answered questions from the Committee.
The Sub-Committee thanked Mr Neill, Mr Poot and Ms. Bishop for their
attendance and the information provided.
184. APPOINTMENT TO PARTNER ORGANISATION - FIFE ENVIRONMENTAL
The Sub-Committee considered a report by the Head of Legal and Democratic Services in respect of a change of membership on the Fife Environmental
Partnership following the resignation of Councillor Derek Noble.
The Sub-Committee agreed that Councillor Neil Crooks be appointed to the Fife
185. ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH (FOOD & WORKPLACE SAFETY) SERVICE
DELIVERY PLAN 2021-22
The Sub-Committee considered a report by the Head of Protective Services advising of the primary areas of regulatory activity undertaken by the Environmental Health (Food and Workplace Safety) Team and presenting the Environmental Health (Food & Workplace Safety) Service Delivery Plan 2021-22.
(1) approved the Environmental Health (Food and Workplace Safety) Service Delivery Plan 2021-2022; and
(2) noted the impact of the Covid 19 Pandemic on the Environmental Health (Food and Workplace Safety) Team activities, along with the work undertaken to restart inspection and intervention programmes when restrictions and demands permitted.
186. POLICE SCOTLAND PERFORMANCE REPORT QUARTERS 1, 2, 3 2020/2021
The Sub-Committee considered a report by the Chief Superintendent, Police Scotland, presenting the Fife Division Performance Report for Quarters 1, 2 and 3
The Sub-Committee noted the information contained in the report.
187. SEVERE FLOODING - AUGUST 2020 UPDATE
The Sub-Committee considered a report by the Head of Assets, Transportation and Environment providing an update on progress of investigation and mitigation
works relating to the August 2020 flood events across Fife.
(1) noted that work continued with the investigation and development of solutions where appropriate on the collated Priority Flooding List;
(2) noted that the Head of Assets, Transportation and Environment would consult with the Convener with a view to clarifying the RAG status relative to the investigation at each location where flooding occurred; and
(3) agreed that a further update report be provided to this Sub-Committee at its next meeting.
188. ENVIRONMENT & PROTECTIVE SERVICES SUB-COMMITTEE FORWARD WORK PROGRAMME
The Sub-Committee noted the current Environment, and Protective Services Sub -Committee Forward Work Programme, which would be updated as
THE FIFE COUNCIL - ECONOMY TOURISM STRATEGIC PLANNING AND TRANSPORTATION SUB-COMMITTEE – REMOTE MEETING
8th April, 2021 10.00 am – 11.35 am
PRESENT: Councillors Altany Craik (Convener), John Beare, Ian Cameron, Dave
Coleman, Bill Connor, Colin Davidson, Sharon Green-Wilson, Jean
Hall-Muir, Jane Ann Liston, Mino Manekshaw, Ross Paterson, David J
Ross, Alistair Suttie, Ann Verner and Jan Wincott.
ATTENDING: Keith Winter, Executive Director - Enterprise and Environment; Ken
Gourlay, Head of Assets, Transportation and Environment, Derek
Crowe, Senior Manager (Roads & Transportation Services), John
Mitchell, Service Manager, Sustainable Transport & Parking, Derek
Beveridge, Lead Consultant - Bus Network & Stations, Steven Sellars,
Lead Consultant, Road Safety & Travel Planning, Assets,
Transportation and Environment; Gordon Mole, Head of Business and
Employability, Sandra Montador-Stewart, Service Manager -
Economy, Tourism and Town Centres, Adam Dunkerley, Opportunities
Fife Partnership Manager, Economy, Planning & Employability
Services; Lesley Robb, Lead Officer (Committee Services), Legal &
160. DECLARATIONS OF INTEREST
Councillors Verner and Suttie declared an interest in Para. 165 - 'Support for Voluntary Organisations'. Councillor Verner due to being a Fife Council appointed
Member of Opportunities Fife Partnership and Councillor Suttie due to being a Fife Council appointed Member of Fife Employment Access Trust. Both Councillors advised that as their interests were insignificant they would remain in the meeting and participate when the item was discussed.
The Sub-Committee considered the minute of the meeting of the Economy,
Tourism, Strategic Planning and Transportation Sub-Committee of 4th February
The Sub-Committee approved the minute.
162. AREA PLACE MAKING AND PARKING TRIAL FINAL REPORT
The Sub-Committee considered a joint report by the Head of Assets, Transportation and Environment and the Head of Business and Employability detailing the findings of the Area Placemaking and Car Parking trial in the Kirkcaldy Area.
1. noted the findings of the Area Placemaking and Car Parking Options trial in the Kirkcaldy Area that identified placemaking as the key factor in town centre regeneration;
2. agreed that the next phase of placemaking would focus on the delivery of Town Centre Strategies with Area Committees;
3. agreed that the Parking Pilot was now concluded; and
4. noted that Area Committees would be key stakeholders in the development of the new Local Transport Strategy for Fife and subsequent Area Transport Plans would be aligned with the local Town Centre Strategies.
163. BUS PARTNERSHIP FUND
The Sub-Committee considered a report by the Head of Assets, Transportation
and Environment providing an update on partnership work in preparing bids to the
Scottish Government Bus Partnership Fund from Fife and through the City's
Region Deal's Transport Appraisal Board.
The Sub-Committee agreed that:
1. Fife Bus Partnership bids to the Scottish Government's Bus Partnership Fund, as endorsed by the Public Transport Working Group on 24th February 2021, be submitted to the Scottish Government by 16th April 2021;
2. Fife Council would contribute to the Tayside Bus Alliance bid to the Bus Partnership Fund, as endorsed by the Public Transport Working Group on 24th February 2021; and
3. City's Deal's Transport Appraisal Board, of which Fife Officers are members, would prepare a collective South East of Scotland regional bid for submission to Transport Scotland for funding from its Bus Partnership Fund, subject to agreement by the six individual Councils.
164. LOCAL TRANSPORT STRATEGY FOR FIFE
The Sub-Committee considered a report by the Head of Assets, Transportation and Environment updating the Sub-Committee on the need to review the Local
Transport Strategy for Fife and the proposed timescale and measures.
1. noted the current development of key local, regional and national strategies relating to the economic, environmental, transportation and landuse
sectors and the need accordingly to review Fife's Local Transport Strategy;
2. agreed that officers proceed with the development of the Local Transport Strategy for Fife with a view to completing by late Summer/Autumn 2022; and
3. noted that update reports on progress would be presented to this Committee as appropriate during the process.
165. SUPPORT FOR VOLUNTARY ORGANISATIONS
The Sub-Committee considered a report by the Head of Business and Employability detailing recommendations for the level of support to voluntary
organisations within the Enterprise and Environment Directorate for the period 2020-2022.
1. approved the level of funding to voluntary organisations by the Assets, Transportation and Environment Service, as detailed in Appendix 1 to the report;
2. approved the allocations given through Service Level Agreements from Business and Employability, as detailed in Appendix 2 to the report; and
3. noted the allocation awarded by the Opportunities Fife Partnership, for delivery of Employability Pathway activities to be used as part of the match for the final year of the European Programme, as detailed in Appendix 3 to the report.
166. FIFE ROAD CASUALTY STATISTICS 2020
The Sub-Committee considered a report by the Head of Assets, Transportation and Environment advising of the numbers and severity of casualties on Fife's
roads in 2020 and the performance against the Scottish Government Road Safety Casualty Reduction targets.
1. noted Fife's road casualty statistics for 2020 and the performance in respect of the Scottish Government reduction targets for 2020;
2. considered and commented on the 2020 road casualty statistics and noted that road safety partners would continue to innovate to meet the casualty reduction targets in the revised Scottish Government Road Safety Framework from 2021 onwards;
3. agreed that a further report be presented on the recently published Scottish Government Road Safety Framework to 2030 and the impacts on Fife Council;
4. noted with much concern the upward trends in fatalities since 2017, in serious injuries since 2015 and serious injuries to children since 2012; and
5. requested Officers to provide a briefing note to Members of the Sub- Committee detailing further information and data on the ten most common contributory factors for crashes over recent years and how this data benchmarks against similar Local Authorities.
167. ECONOMY TOURISM STRATEGIC PLANNING AND TRANSPORTATION
FORWARD WORK PROGRAMME
The Sub-Committee noted the forward work programme for the Economy, Strategic Planning and Transportation Sub-Committee.
THE FIFE COUNCIL - ASSETS AND CORPORATE SERVICES SUB-COMMITTEE – REMOTE MEETING
22nd April, 2021 10.00 a.m. – 10.45 a.m.
PRESENT: Councillors David Barratt (Convener), David Alexander, Alistair Bain,
Alex Campbell, Mick Green, Gary Guichan, Garry Haldane,
Kathleen Leslie, David MacDiarmid, John O’Brien, Ross Paterson,
Bill Porteous and Andrew Verrecchia.
ATTENDING: Keith Winter, Executive Director - Enterprise and Environment;
Ken Gourlay, Head of Assets, Transportation and Environment,
Alan Paul, Senior Manager (Property Services), Michael O’Gorman,
Service Manager (Estates), Assets Transportation and Environment;
and Michelle Hyslop, Committee Officer, Legal and Democratic
APOLOGIES FOR ABSENCE: Councillors Jean Hall Muir and Graham Ritchie
180. DECLARATIONS OF INTEREST
No declarations of interest were submitted in terms of Standing Order No. 7.1.
The Committee considered the minute of the meeting of the Assets and Corporate Services Sub-Committee of 4th March, 2021.
The Committee agreed to approve the minute.
182. SECURITY ARRANGEMENTS FOR VACANT PROPERTY
The Committee considered a report by the Head of Assets, Transportation and Environment which provided an update on the arrangements to the security of
vacant property, further to the report submitted to Committee on 29th October,2020.
The Committee: -
(1) agreed that local members would be engaged when the status of a council asset is proposed to change;
(2) endorsed the approach outlined for the management of vacant properties;and
(3) agreed that an annual report be brought back to Committee
183. ASSETS AND CORPORATE SERVICES SUB COMMITTEE FORWARD WORK PROGRAMME
The Committee noted the current forward work programme for the Assets and
Corporate Services Sub-Committee.
184. DUNFERMLINE LEARNING CAMPUS
The Committee considered a report by the Head of Assets, Transportation and Environment advising of the intention to acquire and dispose of land in order to
create the Dunfermline Learning Campus which was proposed to house the replacement Woodmill and St Columba’s High Schools together with Fife College.
The Committee noted;
(1) the information contained in the report; and
(2) that a further report detailing the financial terms would be considered in private later in the meeting.
185. DUNFERMLINE LEARNING CAMPUS (PRIVATE REPORT)
The Committee resolved, under Section 50(A)(4) of the Local Government (Scotland) Act, 1973, to exclude the public and press from the meeting for this
item of business on the grounds that it involved the likely disclosure of exempt information as defined in Paragraphs 8 and 9 of Part 1 of Schedule 7A to the Act.
The Committee considered a report by the Head of Assets, Transportation and Environment seeking authority to enter into an agreement to acquire the land to
create the Dunfermline Learning Campus (DLC) for the co-location of the replacement Woodmill and St Columba's High Schools together with Fife College.
The Committee approved:-
(1) the entering into conditional agreements to acquire land from Shepherd Offshore and Fife College;
(2) the subsequent acquisition of the sites following completion of the education consultation process and the required site due diligence and feasibility work;
(3) the disposal of land to Fife College; and
(4) the production of a planning development brief, that would inform and support the subsequent marketing of the existing schools.
and otherwise on the terms and conditions imposed by the Head of Legal and Democratic Services.
13th May 2021
Agenda Item No. 4
Fife Council Reform and Recovery Programme: Workstream Update Employability & Positive Destinations for all our school leavers
Report by: Maria Lloyd, Head of Service, Education and Children’s Services
Wards Affected: All Wards
The purpose of this report is to provide members with an update on progress in this workstream. This workstream is part of Education recovery and feeds directly into one of the five cross-cutting themes within the Council’s wider Reform & Recovery Programme, specifically the Leading Economic Recovery established in response to the ongoing impact of the global Covid-19 pandemic. This area also compliments the Reform of Attainment of Children & Young People and The Promise-set out in recovery plans within the Education and Children’s Services Directorate. The report outlines the key challenges facing young people in terms of employment and positive destinations in Fife and how this reform area through a comprehensive Employability Recovery for Young People Plan has been set out to try to address these in the challenging context of COVID 19. There is some reference to the Senior Phase Outcomes report presented to the E&CS committee on 16 March 2021 regarding participation and positive destination measures for Fife in 19/20. Report on Senior Phase Outcomes in Fife 2019-20.
The report will outline the work that has been done in this area of reform so far and what is still required over the coming year in terms identified of next steps and links to the aspiration for the Plan4 Fife Opportunities For All Theme Report so that there are ‘Opportunities for all’, ensuring that no-one is left behind.
It is recommended that the Committee:
1. Reviews and comments on progress and next steps of this workstream;
2. Considers this work alongside reports previously been submitted to Committee on progress and outputs from the other cross-cutting workstreams within the Reform & Recovery Programme;
There are no immediate resource implications associated with this report.
Legal & Risk Implications
There are no specific legal & risk Implications associated with this report.
An Equalities Impact Assessment has not been completed and is not necessary at this stage, as the proposals within the report do not currently represent a change to policy.
The Fairer Scotland Duty requires the Council to consider how it can reduce inequalities of outcome caused by socioeconomic disadvantage when making strategic
decisions. This reform approach focuses on reducing disadvantage through increased access to employment and positive destinations.
As part of the reform agenda the main area of work was the development of the Employability Recovery for Young People plan. This has been the subject of wide
consultation from a range of stakeholders. These include local business leaders via the DYW - Developing the Young Workforce, Department of Work and Pensions (DWP), Skills Development Scotland (SDS), Fife College, Partners in Communities team, Secondary Headteachers and Council services. This comprehensive consultation took place between June 2020 and September 2020.
There were 2 workshops offered and delivered to Elected Members whereby any comments and suggestions were considered and gathered at this time. The workshops were jointly delivered by the Heads of Service for Education and Children’s Services and Business & Employability. A further 2 sessions were held with key members of Enterprise and Environment (E&E) and E&CS Directorates to identify next steps and the Opportunities Fife Partnership Youth Employability Delivery Group (YEDG) has also met fortnightly to address their areas.
The work of this reform area also draws upon ongoing engagement with external stakeholders through existing and recently established channels of communication within the No One Left Behind Fife (NOLB) programme.
1.1 The 2020 global Covid-19 pandemic has had an unprecedented economic impact, the full scale of which has still to fully emerge. This has particularly affected the 16-24 age group who are in the industries of tourism and hospitality, who has greatest amount of people furloughed. In January 2021 this was nationally looking at 11.1%. The number of people claiming out of work benefits in Fife fell from 14,410 in November to 14,205 in December. Fife’s claimant count rate (6.1%) was still above the rate for Scotland as a whole (5.9%). The over 50 age group was the only age group in Fife to see an increase in claimants, though its claimant rate (4.3%) is still much lower than that for the 18-24 and 25–49 age groups (8.5% and 7.1% respectively). On 16 January 2021, the latest employment and unemployment figures for Fife for the period October 2019 to September 2020, show the unemployment rate rose from 4.0% to 4.5% whilst employment remained at 72.8%. (information taken from the Regional Skills Assessments Fife January 2021 Regional Skills Assessments | Skills Development Scotland)
1.2 The remit of the Youth Employability reform area is to ensure that the needs of young people are met through effective working of the Council and partner agencies This area has a large scope and covers key elements of the strategic remits held by Education and Children Services (EC&S) and Enterprise and Environment Directorates in Fife. There is also a close partnership working with Opportunities Fife and Developing the Young Workforce Fife to provide integrated services which will support young people and effectively implementing of Scottish Government policies and initiatives
1.3 Initially, this reform written in August 2020 set out 7 areas to focus on as outlined in appendix 1. This was mostly about how we worked and what we had learned from the initial lockdown in March 2020.
1.4 A clear early priority of this reform was to improve outcomes and opportunities for school leavers, given the interruption to their learning experiences during Covid-19 and high unemployment rates for younger people, to ensure they have a range of appropriate offers of training, employment or work to benefit the long-term economy of Fife by having a skilled range of young people able to fulfil a broad range of vacancies.
1.5 As the impacts of Covid-19 continued , an Employability Recovery for Young People Plan was developed (as set out in Appendix 2 to this report). This plan was
developed between July and September 2020 with a wide range of partners including Communities, Education and Business & Employability services, and the
Opportunities Fife Partnership. It should be noted that this area is specifically focused on young people up to and including 18-year olds.
1.6 The aim of this Employability Recovery for Young People Plan (ERP) was to:
• ensure youth employability is on everyone’s agenda across partners within and out with Fife Council
• maintain or improve School Leaver Destinations. Initial positive destinations from 2019 levels of 94.4%, Improve follow up positive destinations from 2019 level of 91.0% and maintain or improve Participation Measure from 2020 level of 91.7%
• achieve better joint working across the council services including DYW, employers, college and third-party organisation so all pupils have more meaningful experience of education and the world of work
• ensure young people are accessing all the relevant Scottish Government monies/options
• provide a curriculum offer in schools is relevant to, meet the Labour Market needs and has clear progressions for all.
1.7 Eight key challenges were identified as areas needing addressed by a wide range of partners who were consulted:
• high unemployment levels for young people aged 16-24 (in Scotland for 19/20 8.8% and in Fife 16.1%)
• lack of training opportunities in work experience
• improve opportunities for apprenticeship – given the no real “hands on” experience in the workplace
• disengaged young people i.e. some people who don’t want to be there
• still need to get more Young People upskilled in Data Driven Innovation (DDI) the curriculum or courses offered in education need to be relevant for the Labour
• reduce the drop out at Further Education and Higher Education (in 18/19 this was approx. 300)
• identifying this year’s leavers cohort
• connecting with young people referred to partners.
1.8 The purpose of this Employability Recovery for Young People Plan (ERP) was to identify ways of addressing these challenges and to get all partners involved and included to support this priority area with appropriate offers to meet the needs of young people. This aspect of the reform will be delivered in the main by the Youth Employability Delivery Group (YEDG) and overseen by the Opportunities Fife Partnership (OFP) Executive and will be a standing agenda item on all groups
related to Employability.
1.9 Once finalised, the ERP was distributed between partners to use for their work with young people. It is expected that all partners use this plan to inform their practice and where possible either use aspects to amend their practice or create a plan for their service or area of work. Part of the decision making from the OFP was to establish a Youth Employability Recovery Group, established to focus on some key aspects. This group is led by a Senior Manager from Fife College and has
representatives from Communities, Business & Employability, Education and Skills Development Scotland, the work of which is contained within the progress aspect of this report.
1.10 In August 2020 SDS published its annual Participation Measure report for Fife. This data reflects the level of sustained post school destinations, as measured by the participation in the local economy of 16-19 year olds.
1.11 The Participation Measure summarises the overall level of sustained post-school participation by those aged 16-19 over the full course of the financial year. The August 2020 report provides a view of participation for the full period April 2019- March 2020 and, as such, reflects a picture of participation for the period leading up to the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic in Scotland. The data shows a period of sustained improvement in Fife, with participation levels increasing from 88.3% in the year ending March 2016 to 91.7% in the year ending March 2020.
1.12 A key factor in the improving levels of participation was employment, with a 4.7% increase in the percentage of 16-19-year-olds in employment over this period (an increase from 14.1% in 2016 to 18.8% in 2020).
1.13 Even with this positive story it should be noted that prior to the Covid-19 pandemic slightly more young people were unemployed in Fife than nationally (1.4% seeking work and 2.0% not seeking work in Fife, versus 1.1% and 1.7%, respectively, at the national level).
2.0 Working Group Input and Progress to date
2.1 Two workshops were held with members of the Education and Children’s Services Subcommittee and Co-Leaders of the Council. The first workshop on 3 November 2020 was aimed to develop elected members’ understanding of the challenges being faced by young people in the current context. Members were provided with the Reform area plan (see Appendix 2), and Employability Recovery Plan (see Appendix 3). Members noted the need to support and understand the more immediate need for shorter-term actions to support business survival, adaptation and diversification, and work happening in schools to support young people.
2.2 A subsequent workshop was held on 9 December 2020 provided further time for discussion with Elected Members specifically around the work of the Youth
Employability Delivery Group (YEDG) who were tasked to focus on a ‘sprint’ piece of work for Christmas leavers. Whereby 217 pupils left school, and this was unpicked in these discussions to see what we were learning from this given Covid-19 and to discuss lessons learned and next steps to use for best practice going forward.
Sprint work on Christmas leavers
2.3 To undertake this piece of work effectively it was necessary to allocate the responsibility of the destinations of the winter leaver cohort to the YEDG. The group
considered all 217 winter leavers, discussed every young person and explored the appropriate options for each of them. Initially, there were 64 young people not in a positive destination. The YEDG have gathered all options for these young people from various partners and the group are identifying and filling any gaps in the current provision for the 23 young people who are still not in a positive destination. SDS are the key lead in this, who will signpost any young person to other partners as part of the coaching relationship and our wider offer. The information gained here will be used to improve outcomes for all current leavers and future leavers.
Other provision we have increased/improved during this time
2.4 Career Ready in Scotland - Career Ready is a programme working with employers, educators, and volunteers across the UK to give young people the career support, experiences, and insights they need to kick-start their futures. Fife Council is an active participant in Career Ready and has a total of 22 mentees with Fife Council, with 15 young people starting this year, who will be mentored by Council officers for the next 2 years to help them raise their aspirations.
Developing the Young Workforce (DYW)
2.5 In August 2020 we were able to continue some of the work of the DYW coordinators in Secondary schools with the support of the council budget of £75,000.
Subsequently, in November 2020 we were successful in bidding and receiving a Scottish Government Grant for DYW until March 2021, this was for £196,106.67 and also another bid for a total of £593,520 to allow for DYW coordinators to continue a day per week in every Secondary school until June 2022. The key priorities for the year ahead will be Local Partnerships, with a “No Wrong Door” approach to ensure that young people have seamless access to individual support, advice, guidance, and engagement with employers.
2.6 For the first time, within the grant from Scottish Government the Council has received £35,000 to help young people with additional needs who attend any of the five Fife Special Schools to progress into a positive destination. This programme commenced in April 2021 and will initially run for one year until March 2022.
2.7 A teacher has also now been appointed for 3 days per week until June 2022, to focus on improving destinations for Care Experienced (CE) young people including successfully guaranteeing an interview for all CE young people to Fife College. There is a SLWG currently looking at how we can work with other partners to improve outcomes by increasing the number of CE young people in education, training and employment.
2.8 The DYW Fife board has developed a new social media and website https://dywfife.com/ offer to actively target businesses.
Foundation Apprenticeships (FA) offer in Fife schools
2.9 10 FA Frameworks to young people in our schools, in a range of disciplines including IT, Business, Childcare, Social Services, Scientific Technologies and
Engineering. Session 2020/21 saw 366 young people enrol as year one and final year apprentices on the SCQF level 6 programmes. 8 frameworks are delivered by Fife College, with two offered by Fife Council. FA deliver for session 2020/21 has been through digital and online learning. Foundation Apprenticeship delivery in Fife is overseen by a joint Fife Council, Skills Development Scotland and Fife College Governance Group, supported by an Operational group. These groups have helped to increase the numbers taking up FAs by jointly promoting programmes via direct contact with schools, the DYW, Council and College digital marketing.
Curriculum development in schools
2.10 Following a thorough self-evaluation review of the curriculum in all 18 Secondary in January 2020, using HGIOS 4 (https://education.gov.scot/improvement/selfevaluation/HGIOS4). Five professional learning sessions have been completed with Education Scotland, Secondary Headteachers and Depute Headteachers over a number of months, with a focus on considering all aspects of the curriculum. An important aspect of this was how to make the curriculum relate to labour market information and develop skills for employment, life and learning. Schools are further reviewing their offers to young people in light of learning from these sessions.
School College Partnership
2.11 As reported to members in an Elected Members briefing on 2 December 2020, a strategic group of Secondary Headteachers and senior officers from Fife College and Education meet quarterly to review the work of the SCP, this includes quality assurance and includes pupil ‘drop out figures’ for the SCP programmes. Since 2017/18 SCP pupil enrolments have increased from 542 to this session enrolling over 1,000 pupils on SCP programmes including Foundation Apprenticeships at SCQF levels 4, 5 and 6. Working closely with schools the SCP withdrawal rate has reduced from 21% in 2017/18 to 12.5% in 2019/20. We are addressing drop outs by meeting with schools and discussing their needs. Fife College in session 2019/20 also had the best PD figures for colleges in Scotland at 93.3% from 91.1% in the previous session.
2.12 Fife College have developed a flexible and progressive learning pathway from S3 to
Degree level study, including the apprenticeships family, articulation to university and
streamlined employer engagement.
Skills Development Scotland (SDS) data
2.13 SDS is now producing monthly management information related to the learning, training and work of 16 and 17 year olds in Scotland. The interactive report provides an overview of the participation status of 16 and 17 year olds, at a national and local authority level per month. The link senior officer in Education meets monthly with the SDS team manager to review these figures and school’s figures and a Short Life Working Group is looking at how schools can effectively use this data and what other information is needed by schools in order to address issues.
3.0 Initial Positive Destinations and Next Steps
PD figures published at end of Feb 2021 for school leavers in 2019/20
3.1 The Scottish Government publishes an annual report on the initial destinations of school leavers, each February, based on the data held by SDS. These are classified as: positive destinations (including those entering employment, training, further and higher education, voluntary work, etc), and negative destinations (including those who are unemployed – whether seeking employment or not – and those whose destination is unknown).
3.2 The most recent positive destinations report, published in February 2021, provides a snapshot of the destinations that 2019/20 school leavers had transitioned to by the first week of October 2020, 6 months into the Covid pandemic. This data reflects the impact of the Covid pandemic on the opportunities for young people.
3.3 There had been a steady improvement in the proportion of school leavers entering a positive destination in the years leading up to 2018/19, both nationally and in Fife. Positive destinations improved by 1.6% from 92.8% in 2015/16 to 94.4% in 2018/19 (nationally, outcomes improved by 1.5% from 93.5% in 2015/16 to 95.0% in 2018/19). In 2019/20, however, as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic, there was a fall in the levels of positive destinations across Scotland and in Fife. In Fife, positive destinations fell by 2.5% to 91.9%; nationally, positive destinations fell by 1.7% to 93.3%.
3.4 The table below provides a breakdown of the data for Fife, by destination, over recent years. The table reflects:
• The role of employment in enabling improved levels of positive destinations over the period up to 2018/19.
• The significant fall in the proportion of school leavers entering employment in 2019/20, due to the impact of the Covid pandemic. This was partly offset by an
increase in the proportion of school leavers entering further education.
Table showing Initial leaver destinations by category for Fife school leavers.
Some identified next steps
3.5 Implement the MCR pathways will be implemented in 3 schools for 3 years. The planning for this is ongoing via the Learning with Care monies and as part of delivering on aspects of The Promise and is part of our duties under The Children and Young People (Scotland) Act 2014 Statutory guidance part 9 Corporate Parenting Children Young People Scotland
3.6 This is a designed programme to capture young people at the point of leaving schoolwith no positive destination and guide them on an employment pathway. The aim is to extend this in the first instance to Dunfermline and Levenmouth committee catchment areas in 2021. With the aim to roll the programme out Fife wide with the support of third sector organisations. (See appendix 1 for more details).
NOLB Employment Access and Support for Young People (EASYP)
3.7 Through the awarding of additional monies work already underway in Fife will continue to be supported via the NOLB funding. The OFP and the NOLB group to
monitor and evaluate the new award of monies. Fife council EASYP will support approximately 300, 16-18 year olds progress. This funding is spread across partners in Fife council and supports a range of young people from those at risk of leaving school without a positive destination, needing mentoring after school or for those with disabilities, lone parents, ex- offenders and with any other barriers that impacts negatively on their success in entering the labour market.
Developing the Young Workforce (DYW)
3.8 To build on the good work already being done in this area, a new campaign is being launched called Made in Fife. The campaign’s aim is to engage and inspire Fife’s young people to career success by celebrating the careers of people from the region and how they built the foundations for their career in Fife
3.9 This June, as schools are not changing timetables until August, all schools will have access to relevant Developing Young Workforce activities that will provide engaging contexts for the development of skills for work that can be used to support them in thinking about the world of work. (See appendix 1 for more details).
School College Partnership
3.10 Fife College in partnership with the schools, need to continue to review their offering to ensure there is a fit for purpose of young person’s understanding of what the programme is, prior to enrolment to clear pathways for progression to study at the next SCQF level of increased alignment to Labour Market Information and SDS Regional Skills Assessment i.e. what are the need of employers. This will help to reduce the drop out rate from college by ensuring the right young people attend the correct courses.
4.1 The economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and the closures of schools and colleges remain highly uncertain now. As such, we continue to remain in a response phase focussed on supporting young people into employment and positive destinations by continuing to address the key challenges by:
• learning from the work we have done so far
• continuing to work collaboratively across both the E&E and the E&CS Directorate and to report more collectively on success of in terms of priorities of work
undertaken to support young people and identify together clear next steps
• using and sharing information and data more effectively across directorates and partners to help identify gaps or good practice
• listening more to stakeholders on an ongoing basis and be responsive to needs
• continuing to increase the offer of taster and short courses at Fife College at different times of the year to suit the needs of young people in Fife
• actively seeking other accredited providers partners who can support effective transitions
• promoting and creating clear links to the Young Person’s Guarantee and NOLB and using available monies to support the ERP and recovery more widely
• re-organising and focusing the work of school teams to ensure that they have the correct knowledge and access to the information and person to support them, by having a focused network and other partners sharing information with them
• using the extended team across Fife Council and beyond including business partners via the DYW Board to create more apprenticeship opportunities for
young people in Fife
• bringing together the information on all the opportunities available in one place, ensuring understanding of these offers by all and promoting them widely, whilst
addressing any gaps
• continuing to support the attainment reform work in order to give all young people more opportunities.
4.2 The continuing uncertainties associated with the economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and continuing school closures make assessment of future service
demands extremely difficult at the current time. This reform area needs to be for the longer term and developed in conjunction with the wider Economic recovery work. The plan for ERP has been extended with the agreement of the OFP until at least March 2022 and is being updated and revised for June 2021 to take cognisance of the information contained in this report.
List of Appendices
2. Reform Employability
3. Employability and Recovery for Young People Plan
The following papers were relied on in the preparation of this report in terms of the Local Government (Scotland) Act, 1973:
• Plan for Fife 2017-2027
• Fife’s Economic Strategy 2017-2027
Head of Education and Children’s Services
Telephone: 03451 55 55 55, Ext 480217
Email - Maria.firstname.lastname@example.org
The Participation Measure records the post school experiences of young people aged 16- 19 years. Data is drawn from a database accessible to a range of partners and managed by Skills Development Scotland (SDS). SDS report annually at national and local authority levels on the proportion of young people, aged 16-19, in education, employment and training.
Positive Destinations data is published each year by the Scottish Government. It is based on the database maintained by SDS for 16-19 year olds in Scotland. There is an annual report on the initial destinations of school leavers, published each February, which provides a breakdown of the destinations of all school leavers in October. Destinations are classified as: • Positive – e.g. employment, training, further and higher education, voluntary work, etc
Young Person’s Guarantee - Scottish Government in November 2020 published the Young Person’s Guarantee, phase 1 action plan. It proposes that within two years, every person aged between 16 and 24 will have the opportunity, depending on their circumstances; to study, take up an apprenticeship, job or participate in work experience or formal volunteering. As such, young people will need to easily access the Guarantee and be supported in reaching opportunities which are available to them. This involves a 'no wrong door' approach where delivery partners work collectively to connect young people to positive outcomes.
No One Left Behind - Scottish Government first announced its No One Left Behind (NOLB) approach to employability provision in Scotland in 2018, following a review of the allocation of employability resources nationally. This first report recommended the establishment of a new single framework for employability funding to be placed with local authorities. The first tranche of funding, covering Activity Agreements for 16+ clients and Employer Recruitment Incentive funding were transferred to local authorities in the year 2020/2021. This provision has been delivered within Fife Council.
Employability Access & Support for Young People (EASYP) - This is a strength-based employability pathway for young people transitioning from Education age 16-18 years of age or disengaged from Education facing difficulties engaging with mainstream programmes such as Foundation & Modern Apprenticeships, Fairstart, Further Education or open labour market.
We will use Fife-Wide established partnerships recently strengthened through development of People and Place Leadership Teams in each of the 7 localities. These will support us to identify young people for the project. These teams bring together Council, Health & Social Care and third sector providers including Social Work (Children & Families, Criminal Justice and Care Experienced Young People’s Teams), Housing, CLD (e.g. Community Support Groups), Education (including DYW) and Health partners (e.g. Health Improvement Service, CAMHS) and other partners such as DWP, SDS, Fife College and third sector specialist provision. Partnership liaisons will ensure EASYP is responsive to identified need and we are able to identify young people who would benefit from participation in EASYP.
Developing the Young Workforce (DYW) - is the Scottish Government’s Youth Employment strategy to better prepare young people for the world of work.
This is a designed programme to capture young people at the point of leaving school with no positive destination and guide them on an employment pathway that will be supported by the UK Government Kickstart programme, Scottish Government Youth Guarantee and No One Left Behind agenda. Additional financial support for this programme will come from the Fife Job Contract and practical support from the Locality Response and Skills Development and Conference Centre training teams.
Schoolbuild is a short, 3-week engagement programme Students will attend 9-12 days training over the space of 3 weeks. The aim is to inspire pupils at the point they leave education, giving them a very hands-on experience of the world of work.
After pupils have attended the Schoolbuild programme they will be offered a structured 8-week volunteering opportunity, a position with the Local Response Team (LRT) or will be able to attend college or move directly into employment.
Young people have the opportunity to move into a volunteering placement or waged placement with the LRT on completion of the Schoolbuild Academy.
Each pupil will take part in a mixture of hands-on and certificated training, previous Academies have been successful in gaining qualifications in Health and Safety in a Construction Environment Level 1, Manual Handling and Diversity. These qualifications are a good starting point for anyone looking to enter the world of work. They include construction activities such as fencing, paving, use of hand tools and small plant. They will also gain experience in landscaping and rural skills such as tree planting, path and shrub clearing and general maintenance.
MCR Pathways - MCR Pathways' is a Mentoring Programme, helps young people build Motivation, Commitment & Resilience since 2007. MCR Pathways is a school-based mentoring programme. The charity was founded in 2007 to address the outcome gap between care-experienced young people and their peers. We support young people in or on the edges of the care system to realise their full potential through education. MCR recruit, train and matches each volunteer mentor with a young person.
The vision for this programme is that every care-experienced young person, or those who have experienced disadvantage, get the same education outcomes, career opportunities and life chances as every other young person.
MCR Pathways is dedicated to eliminating the education, job choices, and life chances gap that exists between care-experienced young people and their peers.
Plan4 Fife Feb 2020, The Current Plan4 Fife Council
Opportunities for All - Opportunities for all is about ensuring that no-one is left behind. We aim to ensure that everyone can access opportunities in education, training, jobs and wider society, and have equal access to the support and advice they might need to support a fulfilling and decent life.
It is important that we as a partnership focus on removing barriers to allow our communities to maximise opportunities that are open to them. We need to focus on small and big changes so that individuals can progress.
There are a number of opportunities that we want to sound the Partnership Board out on in order to test whether we are in the correct territory for the specific areas we want to enhance. These include: -
• Harnessing the procurement activity across the partnership to spend local and at the same time pursue the payment of the living wage to ensure we increase
earnings and prospects within Fife.
• Making use of the NHS and Fife Council as local “Anchor Institutions” to work with communities to address inequalities
• Working with Opportunities Fife Partnership to increase activity related to mental health and increasing wellbeing amongst the Fife working age population
• Consider the role of Community Wealth building in our future community partnerships
• Using your influence to engage and encourage local businesses to become business links with schools to allow young people the opportunities to see what
types of work can be available in Fife through the private and public sectors
• Promoting the opportunity for staff across our organisations to become part of mentoring schemes for our young people who may find seeking a positive
destination quite a challenge
• Building on our community-led work to encourage parents and local communities to develop and run parent/community led childcare facilities.
The Opportunities for All section of the Plan4 Fife has 7 areas of focus and 21 shorter term
This is a discussion report for consideration by partners and partnership groups before being finalised and presented to the Fife Partnership Board at its February 2020 meeting. This should enable challenge questions, issues and solutions to be identified and discussed
prior to consideration by the Partnership Board.
Reform Area: Employability & Positive Destinations for all our school leavers
Sub-Committee: Education and Children Services
Lead Officer: Maria Lloyd
Date: 4th September 2020
To improve outcomes and opportunities for school leavers, given the interruption to their learning experiences during COVID19 and the high unemployment rates, to ensure they have a range of appropriate offers of training, employment or work to benefit the long-term economy of Fife by having a skilled range of young people to fulfil a broad range of vacancies.
The scope of the reform covers key elements of the strategic remits held by EC&S and E&E directorates in Fife and depends on the collaboration across directorates. We will be working with Opportunities Fife and Developing the Young Workforce Fife partners (e.g. Fife College, regional partners, Skills Development Scotland, NHS Fife, DWP) to provide integrated services which will support young people. We will use Scottish Government policy and initiatives to help direct our work.
- Review the partnership working across the directorates including role and responsibilities of the teams within EC&S and Business & Employability who support
this area of work, this should include Education’s OFA key workers, DYW lead and coordinators in schools and alignment to relevant Employability teams (adult and strategic employability and skills provision will be captured within the Leading Economic Recovery reform strategy)
- The strategic groups across Fife will need to be reviewed and possibly condensed to ensure there is clarity and greater accountability. Consideration of one key person driving this agenda in this area should also be part of this.
- Increasing the workforce capacity to deliver a range of services to young people in a ‘one touch’ approach to young people.
- Review the impact of resource allocation for strategic work and teams to ensure support for schools and should include the sharing of good practice and lessons learned through multiple forums.
- Capitalising on the successful approaches taken during lockdown to develop a renewed approach to working with young people and reducing the need for multi-agencies or people meeting young people. This could be by reviewing Service Level Agreements with third party contracts with partners, where possible to ensure any of these have an element related to employability and their role in supporting this.
- Continuously review our senior curriculum and college offers to young people, ensuring that this offer reflects the LMI and that all pathways are progressive and in line with the 15-24 Learners Journey report from the SG Employability and Skills committee.
- All curriculum design from 3-18 will provide breadth and depth of learner choice to equip them with the skills, knowledge and positive attitudes they need to participate and progress to their next stage of life, learning and work. We will create an informed industry driven curriculum led by the needs of employers and delivered in partnership with them.
3.0 How the work will be taken forward
A comprehensive employability youth recovery plan (which has key areas) has been developed and shared with a wide range of partners to address the challenges and effect of COVID 19 on this group. These partners are making this a focus of their work going forward, so that working collectively we can address these challenges.
This area of reform is a key aspect of Directorate Agile Action Plan 20-21 and will continue to drive improvement through our longer-term Directorate Plan 20-23. It also links directly with the Leading Economic Recovery plan.
4.0 Initial Workplan Sep-Dec 2020
5.0 Issues for Policy & Co-ordination
FIFE COUNCIL EDUCATION AND CHILDREN’S SERVICES
Employability Recovery for Young People Plan
Key objectives to be achieved
Objective: Ensure youth employability is a central theme of the agenda of all partners within and out with Fife Council.
Objective: Maintain or improve School Leaver Destination Report Initial positive destinations from 2019 levels of 94.4%, improve Follow Up positive destinations from 2019 level of 91.0% and maintain or improve Participation Measure from 2020 level of 91.7%. (Too optimistic
given COVID and second lockdown).
Objective: Achieve better joint working across the council departments including DYW, employers, college and third-party organisations to
ensure all young people have a more meaningful experience of education and the world of work.
Objective: Ensure young people are accessing all the relevant Scottish Government monies/options by upskilling all in what these are.
Objective: Ensure the curriculum offer in schools is relevant, meets local and national Labour Market needs and has clear progression routes for all young people.
The purpose of this plan is to identify ways of addressing the key challenges arising from the COVID 19 pandemic by involving and including all partners to support this priority area and as a result, provide appropriate offers to meet the needs of young people, without duplication.
It is proposed this plan will be delivered in the main by the Youth Employability Delivery Group (YEDG) and overseen by the OFP
Executive but should be a standing agenda item on all groups related to Employability.
13th May, 2021.
Agenda Item No. 5
Passenger Transport Reform and Recovery Planning: Fife Bus Recovery Service Implementation Plan
Report by: Keith Winter, Executive Director – Enterprise and Environment, Eileen Rowand, Executive Director - Finance and Corporate Services
Wards Affected: All
The report outlines the timeline and implementation plan to deliver the expanded Fife Bus Recovery Service as agreed at Policy & Coordination Committee on 1 April 2021 and sets out the related funding proposals.
It is recommended that Committee:-
i) Agree the implementation plan and timescales for the expanded Fife Bus Recovery Service as detailed in section 2.0 a) of this report; and
ii) Agree that the revenue & capital costs identified in paras 2.6 & 2.7 associated with this proposal are met corporately from funding as identified in para 2.8 of this report.
Delivery of the Fife Bus Recovery Service proposed from 2022/23 requires both Capital and Revenue resources. One-off Capital costs (£0.240m) are required to cover the ordering and purchase of 4 new vehicles in 2021/22. In addition, to establish and set up the expanded service there is a funding requirement of £0.101m in 2021/22 rising to a recurring demand of £0.371m from 2022/23 to fully deliver the Fife Bus Recovery Service. The costs associated with this proposal will be met corporately from funding identified in 2.8.
Legal & Risk Implications
No legal or risk issues have been identified with this proposal.
An Equality Impact Assessment is not required as the report proposes a minor expansion of a highly valued service that is designed to advance equality of opportunity. A Fife Environmental Assessment Tool has been completed and is attached as Appendix 2 to this report which indicates the proposal is acceptable in environmental terms.
This proposal arose from the Passenger Transport Reform Working Group, September 2020 to February 2021 following the Let’s Talk about Transporting People Participatory Budgeting (PB) public engagement process, September 2019 to March 2020. Roads & Transportation Services, Finance, Procurement, Education & Children’s Services, Communities & Neighbourhoods, and Fleet Services have all engaged in the process.
1.1 On 1 April Policy and Coordination Committee (2021 PC 141 para 284) considered a report that set out the findings of the Passenger Transport Reform and Recovery Review.
1.2 The Committee endorsed the Passenger Transport Reform and Recovery Action Plan resulting from the 6 month review by the Passenger Transport Working Group, and authorised the Executive Director (Enterprise and Environment) to prepare for and implement the Fife Bus Recovery service planned expansion by April 2022 including the requirement for one-off expenditure for the purchase of buses in the current year and remitted to the Service and Finance to identify funding options and bring them back to the next Policy and Co-ordination Committee. This report discharges that committee recommendation.
2.0 Fife Bus Recovery Service
a) Proposed Service Expansion
2.1 Fife Council directly delivers demand responsive transport through Fife Bus, providing a free door-to-door transport service for people who are unable to use conventional public transport.
2.2 Pre COVID-19 the service operated both a Ring and Ride Service (on demand/travel anywhere within zone) and a Dial a Ride Service (fixed route/destination/ times). The Ring & Ride Service was only available in the main towns of Dunfermline, Glenrothes, Kirkcaldy and Leven and hence was seen as being inequitable across Fife.
2.3 The Passenger Transporty Working Group agreed that the previous Fife Bus provision of amix of Ring and Ride (allowing customers to choose a destination and travel time) and Dial a Ride (fixed destination, such as a shopping centre, at a fixed time) was not providing the optimum service for users. The Recovery style of operation, full Ring and Ride, was accepted as providing a more equitable level of service that better met users' needs and helped achieve key Council priorities.
2.4 The option accepted for expansion was Option 2b, described as the ‘Fife Bus Recovery Service’ which is designed to provide a Ring & Ride Service across the whole of Fife as detailed in Appendix 1 to this report. To enable this implementation requires the purchase of additional vehicles as well as new software, extra drivers and back-office staff.
2.5 In terms of timeline, following a period from Autumn 2021 of preparation, recruitment, set up and marketing/publicity, the new service will be planned for launch in April 2022. However, the new vehicles require to be purchased this financial year due to lengthy manufacture lead in times.
b) Funding Requirements & Proposals
2.6 The resource requirement are summarised in the tables below:
Table 1 – Capital Resource Requirements in 2021/22
Resource Requirement Budget required
Additional Vehicles x 4 One-off Capital cost
(Mercedes Benz Sprinter Minibuses - Converted with accessible £0.240m
tail lifts, wheelchair spaces etc.)
Table 2– Revenue Resource Requirements in 2021/22
Resource Requirement Budget required
(a) Purchase, installation, deployment & licenses for specialist Item (a) plus part
software/hardware to enable expansion. year costs of (b)
(b) Recruitment and scale up of drivers and dispatch staff £0.101m
including training etc. to allow phased expansion of Service
in readiness for full delivery.
Table 3 – Revenue Resource Requirements in 2022/23 (Recurring)
Resource Requirement Budget required
3 Additional Dispatch staff £0.084m
5 Additional Community Transport Operatives £0.141m
1 Additional Driver/Supervisor £0.031m
4 Additional Vehicles Fleet/Fuel Costs* £0.070m
Annual Software licences/maintenance (driver mate) £0.025m
Additional Uniforms/sundries, vehicle cleaning, etc £0.020m
*The recurring vehicle costs comprise: Contract Maintenance by Fleet Services (covering insurance, licence fees, tyres, annual servicing & an average cost for wear & tear repairs etc.) and the additional costs for the actual fuel used and repairs of avoidable damage (bumps & scrapes) etc.
2.7 In summary, for 2021/22, £0.101m revenue is required to scale up the operation in advance and £0.240m capital for the fleet expansion. It takes around 12 months from ordering to delivery of the new fleet vehicles meaning that the new service could commence in April 2022. The funding requirement thereafter is for £0.371m recurring from 2022/23.
2.8 The costs associated with this proposal will be met corporately from funding that had been set aside to cover a potential cost increase associated with pensions. Recent indications suggest that the pensions increase is unlikely at this stage providing capacity in the budget to cover these costs.
3.1 As directed by P&C committee on 1st April 2021, the Fife Bus Recovery service will enable the Council to deliver a more equitable demand responsive transport service across Fife to support recovery post COVID-19 and onwards.
3.2 Roads & Transportation Services will implement a phased implementation of the Fife Bus Recovery Service, as demand increases, and within the available resources.
Appendix 1 – Overview of Fife Bus Recovery Service
Appendix 2 – FEAT Assessment – Fife Bus Recovery Service Expansion
Passenger Transport Reform and Recovery Planning (Policy and Coordination Committee of 1 April 2021)
Passenger Transport Services
Finance & Corporate Services
Fife Bus Recovery Service - Points to Note
• Expanded service lends itself to a completely demand responsive service across the whole of Fife taking people to where they want to go, therefore, a more equitable and flexible service Fife wide.
• This will provide an enhanced service to the villages and towns previously receiving a limited service.
• The level of service (no of days operation/zone) has been allocated on a population basis to provide an equivalent level of service pro rata across Fife.
• Increase in vehicle availability during peak operating hours of 14:30pm – 16:30pm due to a change in shift pattern of driving staff moving from a 7:12hrs shift pattern on to a 9:00hrs shift pattern.
• Evening working has been removed providing a more cost-effective service and greater availability during peak demand hours.
• Dial-a-Ride has been removed from existing Ring & Ride areas creating greater flexibility of service provision and removing duplication of service delivery.
• This expansion allows us to provide journey specific requests in areas that previously never benefited from this which in turn increases passenger options and numbers travelling.
• Passengers can now choose where they want to travel and at what times, they are no longer time bound by having to spend x hours at a shopping centre waiting for their return journey on Dial-a-Ride.
• Creates greater flexibility to allow passengers to better plan their whole day.
• Actual time spent on the vehicle is reduced. A passenger is no longer getting picked-up 45 minutes before their actual drop off as can happen on the Dial-a-Ride runs.
13th May, 2021.
Agenda Item No. 6
Edinburgh and South East of Scotland City Region Deal and Regional Growth Framework
Report by: Keith Winter, Executive Director (Enterprise and Environment)
Wards Affected: All except 16, 17, 18, 19, 20
To report to Committee on changes to the Governance for the Edinburgh and South East of Scotland City Region Deal; update on its progress and on the Regional Growth Framework.
The Committee is asked to:
(1) approve the updated terms of reference for the Members Oversight Committee outlined in Paragraphs 2.1 to 2.4;
(2) endorse the vision and themes of the Regional Growth Framework (RGF), note the progress made on the development of the RGF, and the milestones for
reporting and consultation to complete it;
(3) note the update on the Edinburgh and South East of Scotland City Region Deal; and
(4) note the intention for a further report back on the Regional Growth Framework in Autumn 2021.
There are no new resource implications from this report.
Legal & Risk Implications
There are no new Legal and risk implications arising from this report. Legal and risk issues will continue to be monitored as part of the delivery of activities.
An EqIA and Carbon Assessment are not required because the report does not propose a change or revision to existing policies and practices. The Fairer Scotland Duty is also considered as part of this process.
Any EqIA, Fairer Scotland Duty and Carbon Assessment for the Regional Growth Framework will be considered as part of the report in Autumn 2021.
The Head of Finance and Head of Legal and Democratic Services have been consulted in the development of this report.
1.1 The Edinburgh and South East Scotland City Region Deal amounts to £1.3 billion of investment across the city region over 15 years. It was signed by the First Minister, Prime Minister and City Region Leaders on 7 August 2018. The Annual Report for 2019/20 for the Edinburgh and South East Scotland City Region Deal was taken to the Joint Committee in September 2020. Fife’s elected members were briefed on this by
Briefing Note in January 2021.
1.2 The Fife i3 Programme is funded by a £35m grant from the Edinburgh and South East of Scotland City Region Deal. Combined with the Council’s own capital funding and grants from the Vacant and Derelict Land Fund, this is a £50m programme of investment constructing new business space and providing immediately available serviced land. Policy & Co-ordination Committee approved the Full Business Case for Tranche 2 (Years 4-6) and considered an update on Tranche 1 (Years 1-3) of the Fife i3 Programme in November 2020. This Business Case was endorsed by the Joint Committee in March 2021. The Programme is now starting preparation activity for Tranche 2, which begins in April 2022.
1.3 In addition to delivering the Deal’s projects, a Regional Growth Framework (RGF), is being developed within the Deal’s Governance structure (see Appendix 1). This seeks to articulate the long-term aspirational goals for Edinburgh and South East Scotland and to guide the future direction of the local authorities and a range of other public sector organisations over the next 20 years. Non-statutory in nature, it will be a public statement of aligned vison, ambition and priorities for the city region, seeking to influence and be influenced by plans and strategies developed at national, regional and local levels. The Economy, Tourism, Strategic Planning and Transport Sub-Committee of Fife Council approved a brief to commence work on the RGF in January 2020.
1.4 A sub-committee of the City Region Deal Joint Committee, the Elected Member Oversight Committee oversees the development of the RGF. The Elected Member Oversight Committee was constituted in January 2021, and comprises two members from each of the six local authorities (City of Edinburgh, East Lothian, Fife, Midlothian, Scottish Borders and West Lothian Councils) and six members drawn from the regional Higher/Further Education Consortium and the Regional Enterprise Council (which comprises private and third sector interests in the city region). In January 2020, the Council agreed that Councillors Craik and Beare would represent the Council on the Elected Member Oversight Committee.
1.5 A progress update on the Regional Growth Framework was taken to the Joint Committee in December 2020.
2.0 Issues and Options
Revision of Terms of Reference for Elected Member Oversight Committee
2.1 Two revisions are proposed to the Terms of Reference for the Elected Member Oversight Committee (see Appendix 2). These are in Section 1 (Membership) and Section 7 (Meeting Frequency).
2.2 The first amendment to Section 1 (Membership) reflects the desire for flexibility in membership; and the fact that the Regional Enterprise Council and Higher/Further Education are considered equal partners in developing the Regional Spatial Strategy and Regional Growth Framework. It allows for greater flexibility in the other membership.
2.3 The second amendment to Section 7 (Meeting Frequency) reflects the desire of the Committee for thematic workshops. Members felt that holding informal workshops in the place of every alternate meeting would serve to keep them well informed on the progress of the Regional Spatial Strategy and Regional Growth Framework.
2.4 The Terms of Reference also state that the chair will be appointed by the Joint Committee and should be from the Council in the annual lead role for the City Region Deal. The Joint Committee has confirmed Cllr Altany Craik as the Convener for 2021.
City Region Deal Progress Update
2.5 The paragraphs below set out progress since the 2019/20 Annual Report was approved by the Joint Committee in September 2020.
2.6 The Full Business Cases for all 6 hubs funded through the Data Driven innovation programme are now approved. The Bayes Centre is complete. The Edinburgh
International Data Facility is expected to be completed by Autumn 2021. The National Robotarium is due to start on site in Spring 2021 with completion by 2023. The Edinburgh Future Institute is forecast to complete in September 2022 and the Usher Institute in 2023.
2.7 The Scottish Borders Innovation Park has paused its delivery to review market demand for office space following Covid to review the Business Case for Phases 2 and 3.
2.8 The Integrated Regional Employability and Skills Programme has now completed all its project Business Cases with delivery underway although some delivery is impacted by Covid restrictions. The procurement for the Integrated Knowledge Systems is underway with delivery in the short term to Councils with immediate need to replace their existing systems.
2.9 External consultants are carrying out in-depth consultation with key employers in the Financial Services, Health & Social Care and Construction sectors to inform future regional skills interventions to help those sectors recover from Covid and grow. A pilot Data Science course for the Financial Services sector delivered by Fife College in Fife is underway.
2.10 The Intensive Family Support project led by Fife Council now has 5 out of the 6 Local Authorities in delivery. This is integrating well with the Scottish Government’s Parental Employment Support Fund activities. Delivery has been impacted by Covid restrictions. The Covid-19 job portal has posted 3,000 vacancies since its launch last year. A Fife Care Academy pilot is underway.
2.11 Inclusion is a key goal for the City Region Deal, and each project demonstrates how they are reducing inequalities and tackling the city region’s inclusion challenges.
2.12 A Benefits Realisation Plan (BRP) has been produced to monitor the impact of the Deal.
The Plan aims to address two central issues:
• How the City Region Deal is performing against delivery plans as set out in approved programme and project business cases and the overall Deal Document
• What economic, social and other impacts may be generated as a result within the Region, Scotland and elsewhere in the UK?
2.13 The BRP initially sets out the key outputs for each Deal theme together with the projected levels of new jobs that will be delivered. The BRP was approved by Joint Committee in September 2020. The Fife i3 Programme has adopted this approach and is aligned with it.
3.0 Update on the Regional Growth Framework
3.1 The Regional Growth Framework seeks to set out a 20-year roadmap to help the regional economy address the significant challenges and opportunities ahead. In addition to supporting a post-COVID economic recovery. The region needs to be in a position to address the national priorities of Scotland becoming a sustainable, inclusive and zero carbon economy, supporting wellbeing for all of its people.
3.2 During 2020, analysis was undertaken to understand both the changing external challenges and opportunities that will impact on the region, as well as the unique strengths and weaknesses that the region has at present, and ensure that the RGF seeks to maximise the potential for the whole region in the decades ahead.
3.3 Early work sought to identify a vision for the region and the broad themes that seek to maximise the opportunities which the region offers, while addressing the challenges which is faces, both existing and as a result of COVID-19 and its impact. The view of regional partners is that there is a need to start from the premise that there are no boundaries within the region, and that a shared vison is as much about adopting the right approach and behaviours when we collaborating as it is achieving the positive outcomes.
3.4 The collective draft vision for the region is:
We will continue to drive the Scottish economy and successfully accommodate our growth to deliver a fairer and more inclusive distribution of wealth to all our communities. We will make best use of our existing assets to create adaptable, flourishing and smart places to ensure that the Edinburgh and South East Scotland City Region delivers for all its citizens as we transition to a zero-carbon economy.
3.5 Three broad interlinked Themes (Flourishing, Adaptable and Smart) have been identified to support this vision are displayed in the following diagram:
3.6 At the end of 2020 regional partners held workshops to consider how best to deliver a sustainable regional economy and climate change goals. The outputs from these workshops included identifying cross-boundary opportunities and priorities for the region.
Four priorities were agreed for regional partners to initially focus on:
• Assessing the risk impact of climate change consequences;
• Decarbonising Regional supply chains;
• Facilitating net zero Energy Management Systems; and
• Develop a regional investment prospectus for COP26.
3.7 Since being formed in January 2021, the Elected Member Oversight Committee have received regular updates as the RGF develops and have contributed to its development. The agenda and business for formal meetings of the Elected Member Oversight Committee can be found in the Committee library within City of Edinburgh Council’s website.
3.8 COVID-19 has had an impact on the timescale to produce the RGF as businesses and partners have focused on immediate response and recovery issues. The timescales have been revised and organised into five stages:
• Stage 1 – develop a response to NPF 4 Call for Ideas outlining regional aspirations (complete)
• Stage 2 – develop a logic model that identifies strategic aspirations and actions for each of the RGF themes (complete)
• Stages 3 and 4 – stakeholder engagement, develop a draft RGF for consultation, .consultation, finalisation of RGF and formal approval (Mar 2021 – Sep 2021). A draft for consultation is being prepared for the Joint Committee consideration in June. The final RGF is due to be considered by Joint Committee in September and will require to be considered by each of the constituent councils immediately thereafter.
• Stage 5 – delivery of RGF Action Plan (Sep 2021 onwards)
The RGF vision and Framework will be delivered through an action plan and project pipeline with a short-term focus, which will be updated frequently as projects are developed and delivered, with a refresh at 3-5 year intervals.
3.9 The action plan and project pipeline will be informed by a series of identified “big moves” - the major regional opportunities identified through the RGF development process. Each aligns with one or more of the themes set out above. These opportunities listed below cannot be fully realised without a regional approach and will deliver significant impact with the potential to reshape the region’s future. The 10 big moves
• Re-designing the economy: Data Driven Innovation - maximising the impact of the City Region Deal investment (talent, research, adoption, data and
entrepreneurship), building data capability across the public sector, businesses, sectors, schools, infrastructure and communities;
• Re-building communities (both new and existing): addressing affordability and connectivity within 20 min neighbourhoods, and re-thinking our High Streets, in both a city centre and a town centre context, focusing on new roles and new uses;
• Reducing the need to travel: and increasing family support, through new approaches to employment and working patterns ('working near home');
• Rethinking mobility and transport: making us the city region with the lowest car dependency in Scotland, but the best and most flexible, coordinated, integrated
connectivity locally, regionally, nationally and internationally. No one in the region will be without a public transport option for their travel needs;
• Regenerating the Forth estuary: from Rosyth to Cockenzie, linking to Grangemouth/Forth Valley;
• Re-imagining sustainable tourism: regionally and nationally connected, with sustainable assets and attractions across the region;
• Re-building support for business: to focus on good growth and a new wave of entrepreneurialism, with a strong focus on green businesses;
• Re-designing a new skills system: focused on emerging sectors and technologies;
• Re-inventing healthcare: “One Health” sits at the interface between human, animal and ecosystem health where the region has particular expertise. The activity is focused around the Bio Quarter, Easterbush, and the Edinburgh Science Triangle, working with the NHS Boards and regional Health and Social Care Partnerships;
• Responding to the challenges and opportunities presented by the climate crisis: the region will deliver a collaborative approach across energy management systems, regional supply chains, COP 26 investment prospectus and risk impact for climate change consequences.
• Utilising the Deal partners as anchors for embedding Community Wealth Building within the regional economy.
Regionally, the RGF is working closely with the team developing the interim Regional Spatial Strategy (iRSS) for the South East of Scotland. Alignment with the Plan4Fife refresh, the review of Fife’s Economic Strategy and the Local Development Plan will take place after the final RGF is considered by the Council in October.
4.1 This report summarises the progress on the Edinburgh and South East Scotland City Region Deal. The Deal continues to be successful and is addressing the challenges of continuing to deliver during Covid restrictions.
4.2 The production of the RGF is closely aligned with the existing ambitions of the City Region Deal Partners. It seeks to build on the inclusive, sustainable growth objectives within the City Region Deal and align closely to Programme for Government.
4.3 Key stakeholders from across the region are being consulted at each stage of development of the RGF. These include the Regional Enterprise Council (private/third sector forum for the City Region Deal), the third sector interface and the NHS. In June 2021, a draft for consultation will be published by the Joint Committee. The final RGF is due to be considered by Joint Committee in September and will require to be considered by each of the constituent councils immediately thereafter.
4.4 The proposed amendments to the Terms of Reference for the Elected Member Oversight Committee ensures that there is region-wide democratic accountability for the development of the Regional Growth Framework.
List of Appendices
1. City Region Deal Governance Structure
2. Terms of Reference for the Members Oversight Committee
3. Equalities Impact Assessment Summary Report
The following papers were relied on in the preparation of this report in terms of the Local Government (Scotland) Act, 1973: -
• City Region Deal Document (August 2018)
• Benefits Realisation Plan for the City Region Deal – report to City Region Deal Joint Committee (September 2020)
• Regional Growth Framework Proposition – report to City Region Deal Joint Committee (September 2019)
• Regional Growth Framework update - report to City Region Deal Joint Committee (December 2020)
• Regional Growth Framework report to the Economy, Tourism, Transportation & Strategic Planning Committee Edinburgh and South East Scotland City Region (January 2020)
• Briefing note to all Elected Members with the ESES CRD Annual Report 2019/2020 (January 2021)
City Region Deals Programme Manager
Email: email@example.com Telephone: 0795 664 6068
Appendix 2: Elected Member Oversight Sub-Committee –
Terms of Reference
Two Members from each constituent Council, up to six members from the Higher Education/Further Education consortium and the Regional Enterprise Council.
The chair will be appointed by the Joint Committee and should be from the Council in the annual lead role for the City Region Deal.
The Quorum will be one-third of the membership.
Substitutes are permitted from the same local authority.
Officers will attend to support meetings.
The powers and responsibilities of the Elected Member Oversight Sub-Committee cannot extend beyond those of the Edinburgh and South East Scotland City Region Deal Joint Committee. The remit of the Elected Member Oversight Sub-Committee would be: -
a. To provide oversight of the Regional Growth Framework and Regional Spatial Strategy.
b. Working in partnership with public authorities, public bodies and other public or private organisations it deems appropriate , including but not limited to the UK and Scottish Governments, SESplan and SEStran, to co-ordinate, plan, prepare, deliver, review and renew, any Regional Growth Framework and Regional Spatial Strategy for Edinburgh and South East Scotland, interim and final, or any replacement or reiteration or analogous such framework, strategy or plans, subject to the constituent councils’ agreement to policy proposals.
c. To co-ordinate amongst the constituent councils, a contribution to the preparation,review and renewal of the National Planning Framework (NPF4) and its subsequent iterations or replacements, subject to the constituent councils’ agreement to policy proposals, and to co-ordinate and support the constituent councils in their own contributions to it.
d. To support and encourage a sustainable approach to managing growth which aligns to local sustainability, energy and low carbon plans and strategies.
e. To encourage and facilitate a close working partnership with SEStran, SESplan and other relevant organisations.
f. To provide oversight and consider recommendations from the Regional Housing Board and the Transport Appraisal Board.
g. To scrutinise the work of the SESplan Officer Board in regard to the Regional Growth Framework.
h. To advise the City Region Deal Joint Committee in regard to the Regional Growth Framework and Regional Spatial Strategy.
7. Meeting Frequency
The sub-committee will usually meet bi-monthly but may meet more frequently if determined necessary by the Chair or the Sub-Committee.
Appendix 3: Equality Impact Assessment Summary Report
Which Committee report does this IA relate to? Policy & Coordination Committee
13th May 2021
What are the main impacts on equality? None – this does not propose any change to
current policies or activities
What are the main recommendations to enhance or mitigate the impacts
identified? Not applicable
If there are no equality impacts on any of the protected characteristics, please
explain. None – this does not propose any change to current policies or activities
Further information is available from: Morag Millar
City Region Deals Programme Manager
Email: firstname.lastname@example.org Telephone: 0795 664 6068
13th May 2021
Agenda Item No. 7
Edinburgh & South East of Scotland City Region Deal: Dunfermline Strategic Transportation Intervention Measures (STIM) Business Case
Report by: Pam Ewen, Head of Planning, Planning Services
Wards Affected: 2, 3 and 4
The purpose of this report is to seek approval for the Business Case for the Dunfermline Strategic Transportation Intervention Measures (STIMs) Programme, as
part of the Edinburgh and South East Scotland (ESES) Region City Deal, for submission to the Scottish Government. This Business Case will support Scottish
Government grant applications to part fund the delivery of the STIMs. Delivery of this infrastructure is essential to facilitate the unlocking and delivery of the Council’s approved Local Development Plan sites as part of the strategic growth of Dunfermline and to assist in achieving Plan4Fife outcomes.
The Business Case proposal, through the Housing Infrastructure Fund, will provide a means to unlock and accelerate investment in essential new strategic transportation infrastructure in the Dunfermline Strategic Development Area. This will facilitate largescale mixed-use development and investment in the Dunfermline and wider Edinburgh City Region economy including unlocking up to 2,000 affordable and 6,000 private homes.
It is important to note that it is not the purpose of this report to seek approval for the projected Fife Council capital funding within this report and the associated Strategic Business Case. Neither the Scottish Government nor Fife Council’s current budgets extend far enough into the future to cover the Programme’s full 15 year expenditure. Scottish Government grant funding will be applied for on a phased basis. Approval of Fife Council capital funding associated with the STIMs will be brought to this Committee and the Investment Strategy Group to align with grant phases and infrastructure spend profiles. Once a Scottish Government grant offer is received for phase 1, approval(s) for the Fife Council capital funding within phase 1, as required, shall be sought.
It is recommended that Committee:
1. Approve the strategic Business Case and authorise submission to the Edinburgh and South East Scotland City Region Deal Joint Committee and Government partners for final approval;
2. Authorise officers to submit a Housing Infrastructure Fund grant application to Government partners for phase 1 of the STIM Programme;
3. Delegate any non-substantial changes to the Business Case to the Executive Director, Enterprise and Environment; and
4. Note that further reports will come to the Committee, as stated at paragraph 2.8, as phases and related strategic interventions are advanced for approval and implementation.
There are no direct resource implications from this report other than the officer time required to submit the Business Case and associated grant application which will be undertaken within existing resources.
There is a timing gap within the Strategic Transportation Interventions Measures programme between when the transportation interventions require to be in place and when the funds will be received in full through developer contributions. This has always been expected and been estimated and accounted for in the capital plan.
However, capital costs are likely to be higher than the level that can feasibly be covered from receipt of developer contributions and this is not accounted for in the
current capital plan whilst all alternative funding solutions are explored. The Business Case will form part of a grant funding application for Housing Infrastructure Fund grant and, if successful, will bridge the projected capital funding gap. This will allow for a level of cost uplift across the programme and reduce some of the underlying financial risk to the Council.
Legal and Risk Implications
There are no direct legal and risk implications from the preparation of the Business Case.
An EqIA is not required because the report does not propose a change or revision to existing policies and practices.
A FEAT assessment is not required as this report does not propose any policy change and is reporting on implementing agreed Council policy contained within the Local Outcome Improvement Plan and Local Development Plan. In addition, the environmental implications of the Local Development Plan were previously assessed and mitigation identified during its preparation through the Strategic Environmental Assessment and Habitats Regulations Appraisal processes. This was reported to Committee as part of the approval process for the Local Development Plan. Furthermore, as planning applications associated with the transportation interventions are submitted, the environmental implications will be further considered.
The Fairer Scotland Duty, which came into force on 1 April 2018, requires the Council to consider how it can reduce inequalities of outcome caused by socio-economic disadvantage when making strategic decisions. There are not considered to be any implications under the Fairer Scotland Duty.
Planning Services have consulted with the Heads of Assets, Transportation and Environment, Legal Services and the Finance Service in developing the Dunfermline
Business Case and this report.
Dunfermline Strategic Development Area
1.1 Fife’s Strategic Development Areas (SDAs) are large scale, mixed-use, development allocations which are identified through the Strategic Development Plans of SESplan (for the Edinburgh City Region) and TAYplan (for the Dundee City Region). The delivery of the SDAs is central to the spatial strategy of Fife Council’s Adopted Local Development Plan (FIFEplan) which proposes several SDA sites across Fife for development. Cumulatively, it is estimated the SDAs have an investment value of £3 billion. Development of the SDAs are key components to achieving the outcomes of the Plan 4 Fife, Fife’s Local Outcome Improvement Plan (LOIP), and contribute to the themes of thriving places, inclusive growth and jobs and responding to the climate emergency.
1.2 The vision is that the SDA programme will have a transformative effect on Dunfermline, in terms of place making and inclusive and economic growth and will contribute to national, regional and local policy objectives. The Dunfermline SDA programme (see Appendix 1) represents one of the largest areas of strategic growth in Scotland. This programme has the potential to provide approximately 8,000 homes (including a minimum of 25% affordable units); 80 ha of employment land; 5 new primary schools and £36m in developer contributions to secondary education facilities in the Dunfermline area; and other community facilities. There will be additional benefits to the wider Dunfermline Strategic Transportation Zone where a total of 14,000 houses are programmed. The Dunfermline SDA programme will not only assist Fife’s post- COVID economic recovery but will also unlock the delivery of up to 2,000 affordable
housing units and help meet the Council’s affordable housing target and support the Scottish Government’s Housing to 2040 vision.
1.3 Fife Council will deliver a major investment programme in strategic transportation infrastructure in Dunfermline (see Appendix 2) to support the SDA delivery of homes, employment land and community infrastructure such as schools, shops and urban parks. This infrastructure shall create climate friendly and climate ready development linking to energy and transport infrastructure. Such investment will accelerate inclusive growth, create new economic opportunities, and new jobs that will help to reduce inequalities in the Dunfermline area and beyond. This will be achieved through direct investment by the Council working in partnership with private sector landowners and developers to leverage additional investment and funding into Dunfermline, Fife and the wider City Region. The funding challenges this creates are explored in the Issues/Progress section of this report.
1.4 The aim is to create a long-term investment programme in Dunfermline that will assist in the delivery of the objectives of the LOIP not only in Dunfermline but into Mid Fife and the rest of Fife through increased connectivity and economic growth. The importance and benefits of Dunfermline’s strategic growth to Fife and the wider Edinburgh City Region have been recognised through the Edinburgh & South East Scotland City Region Deal. Dunfermline is one of the seven strategic sites identified within the deal that can access monies to deliver infrastructure and unlock strategic growth.
2.1 There is a timing gap between when the interventions require to be in place and when the funds will be received in full through developer contributions. This has always been expected and has been estimated and accounted for in the capital plan. However, capital costs are likely to be higher than the level that can feasibly be covered from receipt of developer contributions and this is not accounted for in the current capital plan whilst all alternative funding solutions are explored.
2.2 Without public sector intervention to bridge both that capital gap and initial timing lag in infrastructure funding, the strategic growth of Dunfermline, as proposed through SESplan and FIFEplan, will not be able to be delivered by the private sector. The Business Case will support grant funding applications for Housing Infrastructure Fund monies to bridge the projected capital funding gap. This will allow for the unplanned cost uplift across the programme and reduce the financial risk to the Council.
2.3 Without additional grant funding, it is anticipated that the continued development of the SDA sites would stall due to the critical nature of the transportation network in Dunfermline. This would result in the non-delivery of the full SDA Programme in Dunfermline and as a result National, Regional and Local Objectives to deliver homes and economic growth through strategic growth would fail. The consequences of failing to deliver enhanced connectivity in Dunfermline would also impact on other parts of Fife, in particular Mid Fife and the wider Edinburgh City Region. If no Scottish Government grant funding is awarded, alternative funding options to address the funding gap will be considered and reported to this Committee.
2.4 It is approved Fife Council policy that developer contributions for off-site transportation interventions in Dunfermline will be collected, held within the Fife Infrastructure Investment Fund, and the funds drawn down as required for Fife Council to deliver the required infrastructure interventions. There is a risk that the cost of all the transportation interventions required to support the strategic growth of Dunfermline will be higher than the developer contributions alone will cover. Due to the strong Dunfermline housing market; many of the Dunfermline housing sites are now being considered through the planning process and programmed to be under construction at the same time. This accelerates the requirement for transportation infrastructure and contributes to the timing gap that requires to be filled to allow development to proceed.
The Business Case Proposal
2.5 Fife Council has worked closely with the Scottish Government More Homes Division and Scottish Futures Trust to arrive at the most appropriate source of funding that will work to reduce the funding gap in the Dunfermline STIM programme. Housing Infrastructure Fund (HIF) grant has been identified by Scottish Government contacts as the most appropriate funding solution for Dunfermline and the Business Case has been written to align with this funding stream. As Dunfermline is the first of the 7 strategic housing sites across the City Region programmed to submit a business case through City Deal, this collaborative working has also been focused on achieving a funding route for other strategic sites within the Region City Deal, where there are similar objectives.
2.6 In summary, the Business Case proposal seeks to secure HIF Funding of £16.5m, over three Parliamentary periods, towards strategic transportation infrastructure. An initial grant application shall be submitted for £4.85m. The grant would cover 25% of construction costs to align with the 25% affordable housing provision. The Scottish Government has advised that the City Deal HIF funding shall not affect the amount of potential HIF funding Fife Council could access through its affordable housing programme. HIF funding is required to unlock the 2,000 affordable units proposed and deliver the wider strategic growth of Dunfermline. Funding will be applied for, and phased, over three, five-year grant periods to align with the Scottish Parliament parliamentary periods (a requirement of HIF funding). An initial phase 1 grant application of £4.85m, covering 2021/22 - 2025/26 will be prepared on approval of the Business Case by the Edinburgh and South East Scotland (ESES) Region City Deal Joint Committee. Table 1 outlines the proposed grant over the 15-year delivery period:
2.7 Table 2 outlines the projected grant draw down over the first grant funding period. Draw down of funding starts at a low level and reflects the design costs being incurred as design work on the transportation interventions commences. As construction commences in the later years of phase 1, draw down of grant funding increases:
2.8 On receipt of a Scottish Government funding proposal, the terms, conditions and governance arrangements will be agreed with the Heads of Finance and Legal. As the business cases for individual transportation interventions are prepared, these will be presented, as required, to future meetings of the Committee.
3.1 The development industry is committed to investing in the Dunfermline housing market. The policy of the Local Development Plan requires developers to fund the strategic transportation interventions required as a result of the cumulative development impact. However, there is a capital gap due to an uplift in capital costs and a timing gap between the interventions being put in place and the funds being received in full through developer contributions. To secure the planned strategic growth of Dunfermline and deliver interventions when required, sites require to be unlocked through infrastructure provision. To achieve this, additional funding is required to ensure infrastructure delivery does not stall, otherwise development stalls.
The Business Case is intended to address this capital funding gap by means of Scottish Government capital grant.
3.2 Negotiations have continued with the Scottish Government on identifying the most appropriate source of funding that will work to reduce the funding gap in the Dunfermline STIM programme. Housing Infrastructure Fund (HIF) grant has been identified as the most appropriate funding solution for Dunfermline and the Business Case has been written to align with this funding stream.
3.3 The Business Case will seek to help address this through:
• An initial HIF grant application for £4.85m over the next Scottish Parliament parliamentary period (2021/22 – 2025/26) to unlock affordable housing - covering 25% of construction costs (to align with 25% affordable housing provision); and
• the stated potential for further bids for Scottish Government funding in successive phases of the STIM Programme (totalling £16.5m and unlocking approximately 2,000 affordable units over the entire programme).
List of Appendices:
Appendix 1: Dunfermline Strategic Development Area
Appendix 2: Dunfermline Strategic Transportation Intervention Measures
Appendix 3: Dunfermline Strategic Transportation Intervention Measures Programme Business Case
Craig Walker, Lead Officer (Local Development Plan)
Email – email@example.com
Purpose of this Document
This document sets out the Full Business Case, in support of the Dunfermline Strategic Growth Transportation Infrastructure Programme. The Business Case provides the evidence that the most economically advantageous investment programme is being delivered and that it is affordable. In addition, the Full Business Case explains the fundamentals of the Dunfermline Strategic Growth Transportation Infrastructure and outlines the detailed arrangements for its delivery, demonstrating that the required outputs can be successfully achieved.
“We can also deliver transformational change through our approach to housing. The [COVID-19] crisis has reiterated the fundamental importance of safe and good quality housing for all - that means continuing our programme of housebuilding, and ensuring both new and existing homes are energy efficient and high quality, creating jobs as part of our investment in construction and retrofitting.”
Extract from the introduction from the First Minister, Rt Hon Nicola Sturgeon MSP First Minister of Scotland to Protecting Scotland, Renewing Scotland: The
Government's Programme for Scotland 2020-2021, September 2020
“…. delivering on the vision and aspiration set out in this strategy [Housing to 2040] will require hard work, collaboration and commitment. But when the prospect of doing so will enable us to realise an equal and fairer Scotland, where everyone has the right to a home, and helps us deliver a greener Scotland with vibrant and flourishing communities, then that effort will be worth it and for the generations to come.”
Foreword extract from Aileen Campbell, the Cabinet Secretary for Communities and
Local Government, Housing to 2040 (March 2021)
This document presents a Business Case which seeks grants, from the Housing Infrastructure Fund (HIF), to part fund the Dunfermline Strategic Growth
Infrastructure Programme as part of the Edinburgh and South East Scotland (ESES) Region City Deal. Grant funding is required to address a capital shortfall within the Dunfermline Strategic Transport Intervention Measures (STIM) Programme. This will enable strategic transportation infrastructure to be delivered to unlock the
strategic growth of Dunfermline. By unlocking this growth and individual housing sites, up to 2,000 affordable housing units and up to 6,000 private units will be
The Business Case for Dunfermline shows a commitment to place-based investment which will see a co-ordinated approach to housing investment through
delivery of essential transport infrastructure, using the investment first principle, that will enable private investment, supporting regional growth. This will be achieved by the delivery of strategic transportation interventions, unlocking up to 2,000 affordable homes as part of wider mixed-use development and investment in the Dunfermline economy. The place-based investment aligns with a number of Scottish Government strategies, aimed at transitioning to net zero emissions,
driving inclusive economic growth and building resilient and sustainable places,. (including the recently launched Housing to 2040, the Infrastructure Investment Plan for Scotland and the Place Principle).
Figure 0.1, below, identifies the nine development sites which make up the Dunfermline strategic growth programme. Due to the scale of growth, significant
infrastructure is required to service the strategic growth of Dunfermline as identified in Figure 0.2. This proposal will provide a means to unlock and accelerate
investment in essential new strategic transportation infrastructure in the Dunfermline strategic growth area (see Figure 4.1) in order to facilitate up to 2,000
new affordable housing units as part of large scale mixed use development and investment in Dunfermline, Fife and the wider Edinburgh City Region economy.
Unlocking the seven strategic housing sites identified in ESES Region City Deal Heads of Terms Agreement and delivering innovative infrastructure solutions is
essential to remove existing physical barriers to growth. The development pipelines created by the regional housing programme contributes significantly to the £1bn programme of construction planned across the city region deal programme.
Fife’s Strategic Development Areas (SDAs) are large scale, mixed-use, development allocations which are identified through the approved Strategic Development Plans of SESplan (for the Edinburgh City Region) and TAYplan (for the Dundee City Region). The delivery of the SDAs is central to the strategy of Fife Council’s Local Outcome Improvement Plan (Plan 4 Fife) and the Adopted Local Development Plan (FIFEplan) which proposes a number of SDA sites for development. Development of the SDAs will help achieve the outcomes of the Plan 4 Fife; in particular the themes of Thriving Places and Inclusive Growth and Jobs.
At a national level, Fife’s SDAs will contribute to national outcomes relating to place making; social inclusion; and low carbon.
The Dunfermline SDA Programme represents an exemplar of strategic growth within the City Deal Programme. Within the context of the then Development Plan
a Dunfermline Strategic Framework (WMUD 2009) study was commissioned by Fife Council. It looked at how the land-use elements (housing, employment, and
community infrastructure) could be accommodated in Dunfermline in a manner which would result in “high quality, sustainable & distinctive place-making". The
starting point of the Framework was the development of walkable neighbourhoods based around mixed-use local centres and local employment land, supported by
improved transport facilities. Community interests, key agencies and the principal developers were involved in this iterative process.
The Dunfermline SDA Programme now represents one of the largest areas of strategic growth in Scotland. The programme has potential to provide up to 2,000
affordable homes; as well as up to 6,000 market homes; 80 ha of employment land; 5 new primary schools; £36m in developer contributions to secondary education facilities in the Dunfermline area; as well as other community facilities; all integrated with new transport infrastructure. There will also be benefits
to the wider Dunfermline Strategic Transportation Zone where a total of 14,000 houses are programmed (see Appendix 8.5). It was intended that all of the above infrastructure would be funded by developers, with either direct provision on site or via developer contributions. Additional costs have been identified which means this is no longer the case and there will be a capital shortfall. In the case of the off-site strategic transportation infrastructure, developer contributions are being collected in a Strategic Infrastructure Fund managed by Fife Council.
It is recognised that the Dunfermline SDA build out period will take the programme through the interim reduction targets to reduce greenhouse gases and potentially on to zero carbon targets as set out in the Climate Change (Emissions Reduction Targets) (Scotland) Act 2019. The programme of STIMs will work alongside new park and ride schemes and a new rail halt at Halbeath Park and Ride. Improved modal options which will promote sustainable and active travel in Dunfermline and the surrounding area.
Dunfermline is South East Scotland’s largest town. The Dunfermline housing market has a strong track record of delivery and performance compared to other similarly sized locations and provides a strong rationale for why this is a low risk investment (see Section 4 - Commercial Case and Appendix 8.3 Dunfermline Housing Market Report).
However, despite the strong housing market, developers have viability issues, particularly, in the early years of development, when most on and off-site
infrastructure needs to be provided. Extensive undermining in the area is resulting in significant ground remediation works for those already on site. Critical capacity issues in the school estate means that schools are required immediately or within the first few years of development, with interim temporary arrangements having to be put in place, and funded, by the developers. In addition, significant capacity issues exist in the Dunfermline road network, as identified in the Dunfermline Transport Assessment 2011 and the FIFEplan Local Development Plan Transport Appraisal 2015. To enable growth, new transportation interventions are required, alongside an increase in active travel opportunities. The Strategic Transportation Intervention Measures listed in Appendix 8.1 all have early triggers.
The response to COVID-19 and the subsequent impact on the development industry, and wider economy, is unlikely to be understood in full for some time. The
conclusions drawn later in this document have looked at national and local impacts.
The Financial Model supporting this Business Case has a built in COVID assumption which assumed the delivery of 25% of the Dunfermline housing
completions programmed in 2020/21 (due to construction pausing for 9 months), with recovery over the following 3 years. COVID-19 delays due to adaptions to
working practices and disruption to the supply chain are expected to also have an adverse impact on construction costs. A continency of 15% was included on
construction costs in 2020/21 and 10% has been applied for costs in 2021/22.
If a funding solution for the delivery of the transport infrastructure cannot be found, then strategic growth in Dunfermline (including the delivery of affordable homes) would be challenging to deliver and would be delayed. In addition, a grant to part fund the delivery of transportation infrastructure would allow Fife Council to manage and deliver its considerable education infrastructure responsibilities and challenges in Dunfermline and elsewhere in Fife.
The Dunfermline Business Case
- is seeking grant funding of £4.85m over the next Scottish Parliament parliamentary period (2021/22 – 2025/26), to unlock affordable housing -
covering 25% of construction costs (to align with 25% affordable housing provision); and
- sets out plans for future phases of the Programme which will require financial support after 2025/26 estimated at £11.68m.
The delivery of up to 2,000 affordable housing units in Dunfermline, as part of strategic growth across 9 sites, would meet the criteria of the Housing Infrastructure Fund. Funding would only be directed to infrastructure works which are outwith the curtilage of the affordable housing sites and which are of a scale that will open up larger sites for housing development. The HIF funding while unlocking the delivery of up to 2,000 affordable housing units, would further assist in enabling the delivery of up to 6,000 market housing units; employment land and other community infrastructure over the full Programme.
The Fund would not be used to:
- provide community infrastructure required as a consequence of new housing development, for example, schools;
- fund, or supplement, developer contributions towards affordable housing provision;
- replace other public sector contributions for major infrastructure which these bodies should be directly funding;
- fund works or other items which would normally be funded by the local authority, for example, general land acquisitions or acquisitions of property
and land made under compulsory purchase orders (CPOs); or
- fund major roadworks, such as upgrading or realignment of trunk roads, which will not directly support housing delivery within the five-year period.
HIF grant funding to assist with the delivery of strategic transportation infrastructure
in Dunfermline would: -
- enable housing and infrastructure delivery;
- support quality of life by promoting quality of place and the public interest in Dunfermline in line with A Plan for Scotland’, the Scottish Government’s
Programme for Government; A National Mission with Local Impact Infrastructure Investment Plan for Scotland 2021-22 to 2025-2026; and the Place Principle;
- enable the delivery of up to 2,000 new affordable homes supporting the Scottish Government’s Housing to 2040 vision;
- enable the delivery of up to 8,000 new homes, supporting the SESplan 19,000 target;
- enable the delivery of sustainable place making and new homes supporting Fife Council’s Local Outcome Improvement Plan;
- enable Fife Council to maintain an effective 5-year housing land supply and fulfil its statutory requirement to deliver the adopted Local Development Plan;
- enable the collection of over £66m in transportation contributions (required to improve the local transportation network), and the equivalent of over £100m
in education contributions; to sustain the growth from not only the strategic sites but the other 20 or so housing sites allocated in the Local Development
Plan, in line with Fife Council's Planning Obligations Framework Supplementary Guidance; and
- enable further economic growth in the Dunfermline area through the creation of construction jobs and the delivery of employment land, and local community
In line with requirements of the UK Treasury Green Book methodology the
business case highlights:
- Justifies the case for investment;
- Demonstrates Value for Money (VfM);
- Sets out the 5-Case model Strategic; Economic; Commercial; Financial; and Management.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................ 4
1.0 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................... 14
1.1 Context for the Business Case ................................................................................................................. 15
1.2 Structure of this Business Case ................................................................................................................ 17
1.3 Key Stakeholders ...................................................................................................................................... 18
1.4 Programme Description ............................................................................................................................ 18
2.0 STRATEGIC CASE ....................................................................................................... 20
2.1 Strategic Dimension .................................................................................................................................. 20
2.2 City Regions Aspirations to Deliver Inclusive Growth............................................................................... 21
2.3 Contribution to National Policy Objectives ................................................................................................ 22
Climate Change/Transitioning to Net Zero Emissions .............................................................................. 22
National Planning Framework ................................................................................................................... 23
A National Mission with Local Impact: Infrastructure Investment Plan for Scotland ................................ 23
Place Principle .......................................................................................................................................... 24
2.4 Contribution to Regional Policy Objectives ............................................................................................... 25
SESplan 2013 ........................................................................................................................................... 25
2.5 Contribution to Local Policy Objectives .................................................................................................... 27
Fife’s Local Outcome Improvement Plan 2017 ......................................................................................... 27
Adopted FIFEplan 2017 (Fife Local Development Plan) .......................................................................... 27
FIFEplan Planning Obligations Framework Supplementary Guidance 2017 ........................................... 28
2.6 Consultation .............................................................................................................................................. 29
2.7 Transportation ........................................................................................................................................... 29
2.8 Do Nothing ................................................................................................................................................ 31
3.0 ECONOMIC CASE ........................................................................................................ 38
3.1 The Edinburgh City and South East Scotland City Region ...................................................................... 38
3.2 Dunfermline Economic Context ................................................................................................................ 39
3.3 Dunfermline Housing Market .................................................................................................................... 40
3.4 Why City Deal? ......................................................................................................................................... 42
3.5 Alternatives ............................................................................................................................................... 43
3.6 Economic Benefits .................................................................................................................................... 43
Gross Value Added ................................................................................................................................... 43
Employment .............................................................................................................................................. 45
4.0 COMMERCIAL CASE ................................................................................................... 47
4.1 Appraisal of Delivery & Funding Options .................................................................................................. 48
4.2 Risk Sharing/Public Sector Collaboration Options Appraisal ................................................................... 55
SMART Investment Objectives ................................................................................................................. 56
4.3 Risks ...................................................................................................................................................... 56
5.0 FINANCIAL CASE ........................................................................................................ 60
5.1 Profile of Funding ...................................................................................................................................... 62
5.2 The Council’s Debt Requirement .............................................................................................................. 63
5.3 Affordability ............................................................................................................................................... 64
5.4 Debt drawdown and repayment profile ..................................................................................................... 65
5.5 Summary financial out-turn ....................................................................................................................... 65
5.6 Key Assumptions of Base Case................................................................................................................ 66
5.7 Cost Maturity of Estimates for Transportation Interventions .................................................................... 66
5.8 Inflation ...................................................................................................................................................... 67
5.9 Sensitivity Analysis.................................................................................................................................... 67
6.0 MANAGEMENT CASE ................................................................................................. 71
6.1 Governance ............................................................................................................................................... 71
6.2 Managing Change ..................................................................................................................................... 73
6.3. Contract Management .............................................................................................................................. 74
6.4 Benefits Realisation .................................................................................................................................. 74
6.5 Approach to Risk Management................................................................................................................. 74
6.6 Programme and Project Monitoring, Evaluation and Reconciliation ........................................................ 74
7.0 CONCLUSIONS & RECOMMENDATION ..................................................................... 76
7.1 Conclusions ............................................................................................................................................... 76
7.2 Recommendation ...................................................................................................................................... 78
8.0 APPENDICES ............................................................................................................... 80
Appendix 8.1 Strategic Infrastructure Transportation Measures ....................................................... 81
Appendix 8.2 Network Rail Joint Working Agreement ....................................................................... 82
Appendix 8.3 Dunfermline Housing Market Report ........................................................................... 85
Appendix 8.4 Dunfermline Strategic Growth Development Overview ............................................... 95
Appendix 8.5 Transport Zones ........................................................................................................... 97
Appendix 8.6 Local Outcome Improvement Plan Extract .................................................................. 98
Appendix 8.7 Financial Model ............................................................................................................ 99
Appendix 8.8 Timetable Dunfermline Strategic Transportation Interventions (STIM) ..................... 101
Appendix 8.9 Governance Structures .............................................................................................. 102
Appendix 8.10 Programme Risk Register Extract.............................................................................. 103
Appendix 8.11 Fife Economic Model 2018 ........................................................................................ 110
Appendix 8.12 Assessment for Economic Impact ............................................................................. 111
Appendix 8.13 Growth Scenarios to Project Future Housing Market Performance .......................... 114
Appendix 8.14 Risk Sharing/Public Sector Collaboration Options Appraisal .................................... 123
Appendix 8.15 Contract Management Team ..................................................................................... 132
Appendix 8.16 Benefits Realisation Register ..................................................................................... 133
This Dunfermline Strategic Growth Infrastructure Programme Business Case is seeking to secure a first phase grant funding of £4.85m of Housing Infrastructure
Fund (HIF) funding under the Edinburgh and South East Scotland (ESES) Region 20th City Deal Heads of Terms agreed with the UK and Scottish Governments on
July 2017. This funding will be supplemented with a Fife Council Capital Programme contribution, which is based on developer contributions. Over the length of the
programme funding will, therefore, come from the developer contributions and the Scottish Government with Fife Council funding the timing gap.
The proposal contained in this Business Case is to secure capital funding to part fund the infrastructure delivery of the Dunfermline Strategic Growth Programme.
This proposal will provide a means to unlock and accelerate investment in essential transportation infrastructure in the Dunfermline Area and will facilitate the delivery of up to 2,000 affordable homes, as part of large-scale mixed-use development and investment in the Dunfermline economy and wider City Region.
The vision is that this place-based investment programme will have a transformative effect on Dunfermline, in terms of place making; social inclusion and economic growth whilst contributing to national, regional and local policy objectives. This vision, therefore, supports not just the ambitions of national policy and the ESES City Deal but the Fife-wide strategic ambitions contained throughout this Business Case.
The Dunfermline Strategic Development Area (SDA) programme represents one of the largest areas of strategic growth in Scotland. The Programme has potential to provide up to 8,000 homes (including a minimum of 25% affordable – approximately 2,000 units); 80 ha of employment land – along with the related employment and training opportunities; 5 new primary schools and £36m in developer contributions to secondary education facilities in the Dunfermline area; and other community facilities. There will be additional benefits to the wider Dunfermline Strategic Transportation Zone where a total of 14,000 houses are programmed (inclusive of the SDA - see Appendix 8.5 Transport Zones and Appendix 8.7 Financial Model).
The delivery of up to 2,000 affordable homes, a part of the Dunfermline strategic growth programme, will contribute to the Scottish Government’s Housing to 2040 vision. The vision, is to deliver 100,000 affordable homes across Scotland by whilst 2031/32, adopting “a place-based approach so that homes and places work together seamlessly and people can live in communities that meet their needs and wellbeing”. support their health and Amongst the actions set out in Protecting Scotland, Renewing Scotland: The Government's Programme for Scotland 2020-2021 is the objective of the Scottish Government to “complete the delivery of affordable homes as quickly as it is safe to do so, and set out a 20 year vision for energy efficient, zero carbon housing, with access to outdoor space, transport links, digital connectivity and community services”.
The ESES City Region Deal has recently produced a draft paper on The Role of Affordable Housing in Regional Economic Recovery. The aim of the paper “is to
highlight the role of affordable housing to help rapidly rebuild the Scottish and city region economy, create jobs and revive our communities. The combination of strong demand for housing and the ability of regional partners to deliver affordable housing,
provides a huge economic opportunity”.
Dunfermline is well placed to help the Scottish Government deliver its affordable housing commitments. The strategic growth of Dunfermline is already on-site
delivering completions and is projected to deliver approximately 2,000 additional affordable homes, subject to resolving barriers to infrastructure delivery. Not only will Dunfermline contribute to meeting this affordable housing commitment, but it will help implement and deliver the Scottish Government’s 20 year vision for sustainable, balanced communities.
A quarter of new homes delivered in Dunfermline will be affordable. The developers are committed to working with Fife Council and Registered Social Landlords to
deliver affordable housing in each phase of their developments. Key to this scale of delivery is the unlocking of the City Region’s seven identified strategic sites,
including Dunfermline. The programme of new housing, supported by the partners and Scottish Government, aims to bring certainty to Small Medium Enterprises by maximising economic benefits from the construction process.
This proposal, therefore, sets out a high-level bid to secure capital funding to part fund the infrastructure delivery of the Dunfermline Strategic Growth Programme to assist the timeous and viable delivery of the Dunfermline Strategic Transportation Intervention Measures (STIM) (see Appendix 8.1); essential to unlocking the 2,000 affordable housing units and supporting the delivery of the wider SDA Programme in Dunfermline.
There is a mismatch between when transportation infrastructure is required to be delivered to allow development to proceed and when monies accrued from
development contributions will be available to fund these infrastructure interventions in their entirety. Due to this timing issue, there will be a capital shortfall to support infrastructure. In addition increased costs of £15.9m has meant that the capital shortfall is exacerbated which is why the Scottish Government is being asked to provide grant funding.
There is a direct timing relationship between the actual pace of development and the need for the delivery of the STIM measures. Should there be a delay to the
pace of development then the STIM programme can also be reprogrammed. This will lead to reprofiling of the capital plan.
Context for the Business Case
The delivery of strategic growth in Dunfermline is supported by the Scottish Government, the ESES Region City Deal and Fife Council. The ESES City Deal
aims to deliver inclusive economic growth and place based investment across the region through housing, innovation, transport, skills and culture. Investment in Fife is proposed through Strategic Growth as part of the Housing/Transport and Innovation Themes within the ESES Region City Deal Heads of Terms Agreement
on 20th July 2017. The ambition is to invest in essential infrastructure required to unlock development in Dunfermline thus accelerating growth and delivering large scale affordable housing, other market homes and jobs.
Although supported by national, regional and local planning policy and objectives, the Strategic Development Sites allocated in FIFEplan, (the Local Development
Plan), have failed to deliver the planned housing and economic growth across Fife at the programmed rate. The downturn in the economy over the last 10 years has meant that the private sector has been unable to invest in essential infrastructure to enable the development of strategic sites. Severe constraints on the availability of debt finance, over a sufficiently long period from traditional funding sources, particularly since the financial crash in 2008/9 has exacerbated the problem. Whilst this lack of financial viability is not unique to Fife, it is constraining the creation of much needed homes and community infrastructure, and the resulting economic and job creation opportunities.
Just prior to the current COVID pandemic, there had been an upturn in the housing market in Dunfermline, with three SDA sites consented for 1,100, 2,150 and 90 units and one approved subject to Section 75 (1,400 units). Looking Dunfermline-wide, all but one of the SDA sites has now been submitted to the planning process (see Appendix 8.4 – Dunfermline Strategic Growth Development Overview). Past completions data for Dunfermline during the last economic recession indicates that Dunfermline continued to perform well. Whilst sites slowed, they continued to deliver. Local developers are indicating a positive outlook (as of March 2021). This is possibly in part due to committed sales and pent-up demand. The pandemic has also resulted in an intensification of the home and its space through home working. After the successful operation of their ‘virtual office’ during lockdown, many companies are now questioning if they require the same quantity of office accommodation in the future. Looking forward, this trend in home working is likely to continue. This is likely to lead to a longer term reduction in the requirement for many Fife residents to commute daily to their employer’s physical base. The need for less daily commuting and greater home working in the ‘virtual office’ is likely to influence peoples’ locational choices for future housing. It is predicted that Dunfermline could benefit from this trend as some people relocate from the city to a more competitively priced market such as Dunfermline, still within easy commuting distance of Edinburgh and with excellent public transport links.
However, the capital funding gap and lack of upfront funding available to deliver some of the essential transportation infrastructure, including a new Western
Distributor Road and a Northern Link Road (see Appendix 8.1) may result in consented sites stalling. The Council believes that the opportunity presented under
the City Deal will contribute to achieving the aim of securing long-term investment in the delivery of growth in Dunfermline, supporting the wider City Region. The
Queensferry Crossing, a major public sector infrastructure investment, opened in September 2017 after investment of c£1.4bn. This investment helped improve
connectivity (both by bus and private car) for businesses and residents in Fife to Scotland’s central belt and the principal cities of Edinburgh and Glasgow. By both
reducing journey times and improving resilience in adverse weather conditions, the new crossing is helping to improve the region’s economic performance. In addition, the Forth Bridge enables improved bus services, with enhanced journey times, connected to the very successful Park and Ride facilities at Ferrytoll and Halbeath.
In the context of the current City Deal proposal in this business case, complementary investment in strategic transportation interventions in Dunfermline
will help capitalise on the increasing strength in the market stimulated by the new crossing over the next 10 years and beyond.
Fife Council has made significant investment over many years in transportation infrastructure in the Dunfermline area through its capital programme; including
parking upgrades at Dunfermline Town and Queen Margaret railway stations; the provision of a new bus station; upgrades to primary routes through the town e.g.
Sinclair Gardens Roundabout and Whitefield Road; as well as encouraging active travel through enhanced provision of cycle and footpath networks with links to the bus and rail stations. The investment has aided the Council’s Objectives around improved social, economic and environment issues.
However, the scale of planned growth over the next 20 to 30 years in Dunfermline requires significant new investment in transportation infrastructure, as set out in the Dunfermline Strategic Land Allocation Transport Assessment (TA) 2009 and the FIFEplan TA 2015. The measures listed in Appendix 8.1 will assist network capacity and flows whilst providing for active travel (which will be an integral part of the transportation measures on and off the development sites).
Further transportation modelling work was commissioned in the autumn of 2020, in order to review the current STIMs, traffic assumptions and delivery programme. The purpose of this re-evaluation was to establish if there was a more efficient way to deliver these works. The additional transport modelling concluded that all programmed Dunfermline Strategic Transportation Intervention Measures are still required and that no additional transport infrastructure is necessary to support the strategic growth of Dunfermline.
Revised cost estimates were also prepared for the Dunfermline STIMs in autumn 2020. These estimates valued the cost of the STIMs at £50.055m in 2020 prices
and £66.8m when indexed to date of delivery (and £69.1m when interest is added at £2.4m). This is an increase of £15.9m compared to the original cost estimates.
The objective of the business case is to provide a clear and justified basis for City Deal grant funding to deliver significant infrastructure in Dunfermline. It sets out how the proposed investment meets strategic objectives at national, regional and local levels and how it will assist in delivering national outcomes relating to place making; social inclusion; and low carbon. Furthermore, it highlights the anticipated economic outcomes and why investment is required; how the proposal will be delivered in commercial terms; the viability of the investment proposal and, finally, how the proposal will be achieved and managed.
1.2 Structure of this Business Case
This business case adopts the 5-Case structure and together these show how the
- Closely aligned to wider strategies and objectives – the strategic case.
- Best value for money – the economic case.
- Achievable in commercial terms – the commercial case.
- Affordable – the financial case.
- Achievable in practical terms – the management case.
1.3 Key Stakeholders
The principal stakeholders for the purpose of the business case comprise of Fife Council, including senior officials and local
elected Members, and private landowners and developers. In addition, a number of other organisations are jointly involved in the delivery of this project, in particular Transport Scotland, Network Rail, Scottish Power and Scottish Water. A collaborative approach has been adopted with client and consultancy teams and national bodies and the local authority all working together. Fife Council has adopted a key co-ordination and facilitation role. Fife Council and the developers have contributed to Transportation Modelling work. Fife Council is co-ordinating the delivery of all off-site transportation interventions. The Council is collaborating with the SDA developers to deliver the community infrastructure such as the 5 new primary schools required and will manage developer contributions to deliver new secondary school capacity. Fife Council is leading the financial modelling work for both education and transportation. An internal Strategic Transportation Interventions Delivery Board and School Education Development Board oversee this work, with both reporting to the Sustainable Growth & City Deal Board (see Section 6 regarding governance).
The individual developers are also responsible for delivering the transportation interventions where they run through their respective development sites e.g. the
Northern Link Road and the Western Distributor Road. These routes will provide the primary route through a number of strategic growth sites. Whilst developers will directly deliver on site interventions, in line with planning guidance, they will be making developer contributions towards the delivery of off-site works. The delivery of three rail crossings (two on the Western Distributor and one on the Northern Link Road) and the closure of a level crossing at the east end of the NLR (reducing interface between road and rail users) will be delivered jointly by Fife Council and Network Rail (see Appendix 8.2 - Network Rail Joint Working Agreement).
Communities and other interested parties have been consulted through the Local Development Plan process on the strategic transport interventions and proposed
associated routes. Briefing notes, and meetings have kept Community Councils updated on the progress in delivering the SDAs. In addition, each of the SDA
developers have engaged in community consultation via the planning application process, including for example a World Café and Design workshops.
The proposal in this business case comprises a programme of investment in infrastructure over a period of 15 years (from 21/22 – 35/36). The overall investment
over the whole programme is projected to be £16.5m City Deal funding and £52.6m Fife Council. Whilst the business case covers a wider programme of 15 years
expenditure, a Phase 1 HIF application is being made for the £4.85m over the first 5 years. Phase 1 will cover the Scottish Parliamentary period 2021/22 - 2025/26 to align with HIF funding requirements. Based on the successful application and delivery of Phase 1, it would be the intention to engage with the Scottish
Government for further funding for the remaining period of programmed expenditure up to 2035/36.
Fife Council will deliver a major investment programme in transportation infrastructure in Dunfermline to support the delivery of homes, employment land and
community infrastructure such as schools, shops and urban parks. Such investment will accelerate inclusive growth, create new economic opportunities, and new jobs that will help to reduce inequalities in the Dunfermline area and beyond. This will be achieved through direct investment by the Council working in partnership with private sector landowners and developers to leverage additional investment and funding into Dunfermline, Fife and the City Region.
The aim is to create a long-term investment programme in Dunfermline that will assist in the delivery of the objectives of the Local Outcome Improvement Plan not only in Dunfermline but into Mid Fife and the rest of Fife through increased connectivity and economic growth.
2.0 STRATEGIC CASE
2.0.1 This section sets out the case for change at a strategic level. It summarises the programme’s fit with wider policy objectives and summarises the strategic
objectives for the investment programme. The investment proposed in this business case fits within, supports and contributes to the achievement of a number of policy objectives at a national, regional and local level.
2.0.2 The delivery of sustainable economic growth in Dunfermline is being progressed in alignment with the principles of the Infrastructure First approach and the Scottish Government infrastructure investment programme outcomes. The infrastructure investment programme is focussed on delivering good outcomes for the people of Scotland and, transitioning to net zero emissions, driving inclusive economic growth and building resilient and sustainable places.
2.1 Strategic Dimension
2.1.1 ‘A Plan for Scotland’, the Scottish Government’s Programme for Government, (September 2016) stated that the planning system … “enables housing and
infrastructure delivery and supports quality of life of all our communities by promoting quality of place and the public interest ...”. Protecting Scotland,
Renewing Scotland: The Government's Programme for Scotland 2020-2021 also recognises the vital importance of ensuring that all parts of Scotland benefit from
economic growth and highlights that the government will continue to support City Region Deals and Regional Growth Deals
2.1.2 Without assistance to augment the Council's current front-funding arrangements, the planning system in Fife is currently unable to integrate the timing and delivery of housing and infrastructure in Dunfermline thus maximising the associated economic growth. The Infrastructure Commission for Scotland’s first published Report Phase 1 Key findings: A blueprint Scotland is welcomed. A number of the eight overarching themes, such as Place; Transport; Housing; and Public Service Infrastructure overlap with the objectives for delivering strategic growth in Dunfermline.
2.1.3 Fife’s Strategic Development Areas (SDAs) are large scale, mixed-use, development allocations which are identified through the Strategic Development
Plans of SESplan (for the Edinburgh City Region) and TAYplan (for the Dundee City Region). The delivery of the SDAs is central to the spatial strategy of Fife Council’s Adopted Local Development Plan (FIFEplan) which proposes a number of SDA sites for development. Development of the SDAs will help achieve the outcomes of the Plan 4 Fife, Fife’s Local Outcome Improvement Plan, and in particular contribute to the themes of Thriving places and Inclusive Growth and Jobs. The scale of growth in the Dunfermline area, which will involve significant capital investment, will result in a positive economic outcome for the local and regional economy: resulting in direct and indirect employment opportunities. At a national level, Fife’s SDAs will contribute to national outcomes relating to the delivery of homes and jobs; place making; social inclusion; and net zero carbon whilst contributing to the post COVID-19 national economic recovery (see Appendix 8.3 Dunfermline Housing Market Report and Appendix 8.12 Assessment for Economic Impact.)
The Dunfermline SDA programme represents one of the largest areas of strategic growth in Scotland. The Programme has potential to provide up to 8,000 homes
(including a minimum of 25% affordable – approximately 2,000 units); 80 ha of employment land; 5 new primary schools and £36m in developer contributions to
secondary education facilities in the Dunfermline area; and other community facilities. There will be additional benefits to the wider Dunfermline Strategic
Transportation Zone where a total of 14,000 houses are programmed (see Appendix 8.5 - Transport Zones and Appendix 8.7 - Financial Model).
The Dunfermline housing market is strong and continues to perform well when compared to the rest of Fife, and against similar sized towns in Scotland (see
Appendix 8.3 - Dunfermline Housing Market Report). As a result, there is currently developer interest in all the Dunfermline SDA sites (see Appendix 8.4 – Dunfermline Strategic Growth Development Overview). However, there are long term socio economic challenges in the area which restrict inclusive economic growth. The Dunfermline Area Community Plan Strategic Assessment identifies that greater investment is required in business infrastructure, transportation and
digital connectivity to ensure the area's on-going and increasing competitiveness. The development of the Dunfermline SDA will bring additional infrastructure investment and help enable inclusive economic growth.
The Fife Industrial Estates Regeneration Programme, funded through the ESES RegioN City Deal, will invest in new business properties to create new employment
opportunities in the Dunfermline and South Fife area. This business case seeks to unlock development investment in transportation infrastructure to enable that
growth; the case is therefore linked to the delivery of homes and jobs.
A comprehensive programme of infrastructure delivery is required to support the SDA sites, to ensure that new development addresses any additional impacts on
roads, schools and community facilities. This will be funded through developer contributions, as set out in FIFEplan Planning Obligations Framework Supplementary Guidance 2017.
Whilst the delivery of strategic transportation interventions in Dunfermline is proposed to be funded by developers, in the inner and outer Transportation Zones
(see Appendix 8.5), the additional costs identified along with the timing lag in funding in the early years will prevent progress in delivery and restrict economic growth in the area if the funding gap is not closed.
City Regions Aspirations to Deliver Inclusive Growth
Strategic growth and regeneration are part of the Plan 4 Fife (Fife’s LOIP) and Fife’s Development Plan strategy. While Fife is already prosperous and important to the national economy – generating £33bn of GVA a year, significant inequalities persist. It is estimated that 20% of Fife’s population are living in poverty. The Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation 2020 identifies communities within Dunfermline which are in the most deprived 20% - Abbeyview, Baldridgeburn, Brucefield, Halbeath, Headwell, Touch and Woodmill all fall into this category, with a combined population of 8,274 (an increase of over 2,500 since 2016). Three of these communities, (Abbeyview, Headwell, and Touch and Woodmill), are within the 10% most deprived.
The ESES Region City Deal’s vision is aimed at tackling the twin challenges of inequality and productivity. The successful delivery of a City Region Deal would
make clear and measurable contributions to both inclusion and economic growth and address key economic barriers with significant new investment in housing,
transport and community infrastructure. New jobs, skills and training opportunities will not only be created during construction and delivery of the planned growth but also in terms of future employment opportunities in the 80ha of employment land to be provided, and further employment opportunities in the community infrastructure (see Appendix 8.12 Assessment for Economic Impact).
Contribution to National Policy Objectives
Climate Change/Transitioning to Net Zero Emissions
The Climate Change (Emissions Reduction Targets) (Scotland) Act 2019 sets targets to reduce Scotland's emissions of all greenhouse gases to net-zero by 2045
at the latest, with interim targets for reductions of at least 56% by 2020, 75% by 2030, 90% by 2040.
Fife Council declared a climate emergency in 2019. It is recognised that Fife Council and the wider community have made considerable progress at reducing emissions and increasing resilience, but that we now need to mobilise to accelerate the pace and ambition of our response to the climate crisis. Climate Fife (Fife’s Sustainable Energy & Climate Action Plan (SECAP)) is Fife’s most recent response to the climate emergency.
It is recognised, by Fife Council, that spatial planning has the potential to lessen the impact of global climate change and help achieve sustainable development.
Planning, along with Transportation, and aligned with relevant Community Planning strategies, can facilitate increased usage and access to public transport, walking and cycling modes. This can be achieved for example, by encouraging higher density development around transport nodes and an increase in mixed land-uses and active travel opportunities thus helping create balanced communities.
Fife Council has made significant investment over many years in transportation infrastructure in the Dunfermline area (see paragraph 1.1.5). The Dunfermline
strategic growth programme will build on this and deliver active travel routes (on and off site) for pedestrians and cyclists and provide for sustainable transport
modes (bus and rail), aimed at encouraging modal shift. The masterplans for the strategic development sites have applied the principles of walkable neighbourhoods (see paragraphs 2.4.5 and 3.1.12).
The Northern Link Road and Western Distributor Road will work alongside new park and ride schemes and a new rail halt at Halbeath Park and Ride. Further access to the south towards Edinburgh via bus has also been significantly improved now that the Forth Bridge is dedicated to public transport. Improved modal options which will promote sustainable and active travel in Dunfermline and the surrounding area are listed in section 2.4.
National Planning Framework
The current National Planning Framework, NPF3, sets out a long-term vision for development and investment across Scotland over the next 20 to 30 years. The
Scottish Government state that the NPF “is the spatial expression of the Government Economic Strategy, and of our plans for infrastructure investment. It is
about our ambition to create great places that support sustainable economic growth across the country”.
NPF 3 recognises Dunfermline as an important hub for employment and services and notes that it is identified for strategic growth as part of the Edinburgh City
As part of the preparation of National Planning Framework 4, comments on how Scotland should look by 2050 were sought by the Scottish Government in early
2020. Further comments were sought on the NPF Position Statement in late 2020.
It is expected that NPF4 will focus on achieving the following key outcomes by 2050:
- Net-Zero Emissions
- A Wellbeing Economy
- Resilient Communities
- Better, Greener Places
In keeping with NPF4, strategic growth in Dunfermline is aligned with the objectives, of Transitioning to Net Zero Emissions; Driving Inclusive Economic Growth; and Building Resilient and Sustainable Places (see paragraphs 3.1.9 - 3.1.12).
However, as was noted in Fife Council’s submission to the initial NPF4 Call for Ideas, the delivery of strategic transportation interventions and community facilities
(including secondary and primary school provision) to support the level of projected growth, and the associated revenue costs placed on the Council, will continue to be a challenge. This Business Case helps address this challenge by outlining the case for the part funding of strategic transportation infrastructure through City Deal.
The ESES Region City Deal authorities have also produced an interim Regional Spatial Strategy to feed into the preparation of the draft NPF4. The recently ratified
Strategy focus on Regional recovery and renewal, as well as an adaptable and accessible region.
A National Mission with Local Impact: Infrastructure Investment Plan for
The Infrastructure Investment Plan for Scotland 2021-2022 to 2025-2026 states that “Scotland aims to deliver a wellbeing economy. That means ensuring society thrives economically, socially and environmentally, and that we deliver sustainable and inclusive growth for all. Making the right investments in the right places is crucial.”
In particular, the Plan will focus on the following shifts in capital investment, to seek to address the economic, health and social impacts of COVID-19:
- Investing in digital connectivity and digital inclusion to help businesses, workers and service users to accelerate the uptake of digital services and reducing the need to travel.
- Supporting safe active travel and local, accessible public services in vibrant places to sustain local communities.
- Supporting green and blue spaces to provide access to nature.
- Investing in local business opportunities and job-creation to preserve and generate employment to support economic recovery.
The original concept plans for strategic growth in Dunfermline and the subsequent planning applications and supporting master plans are fully aligned with, and will deliver, these objectives. Fife Council will deliver a major investment programme in transportation infrastructure in Dunfermline to support the delivery of homes, employment land and community infrastructure such as schools, shops and urban parks and utilities. Such investment will accelerate inclusive growth, create new economic opportunities, and new jobs that will help to reduce inequalities in the Dunfermline area and beyond. This will be achieved through direct investment by the Council working in partnership with private sector landowners and developers to leverage additional investment and funding into Dunfermline, Fife and the City Region.
2.3.13 The Place Principle was adopted to help overcome organisational and sectoral boundaries, to encourage better collaboration and community involvement, and improve the impact of combined energy, resources and investment. It promotes a shared understanding of place, and the need to take a more collaborative
approach to a place’s services and assets to achieve better outcomes for people and communities. The principle encourages and enables local flexibility to respond
to issues and circumstances in different places.
2.3.14 Strategic growth in Dunfermline is, and will continue to be, a collaborative, place-based approach with a shared purpose between the public and private sectors and local communities, to support a clear way forward for all services, assets and investments which will maximise the impact of their combined resources. The Dunfermline Area Community Plan Strategic Assessment identifies that greater investment is required in business infrastructure, transportation and digital
connectivity to ensure the area's on-going and increasing competitiveness. The development of the Dunfermline SDA will bring additional infrastructure investment and help enable inclusive economic growth.
2.4 Contribution to Regional Policy Objectives
2.4.1 SESplan’s Strategic Development Plan (SDP) June 2013, sets out the strategic vision for the South East of Scotland City Region: -
“By 2032, the Edinburgh City Region is a healthier, more prosperous and sustainable place which continues to be internationally recognised as an outstanding area in which to live, work and do business.”
2.4.2 Part of this vision includes: - “Significant investment in infrastructure will be needed if new opportunities are to be realised and the area is to grow sustainably and improve its competitiveness nationally and internationally. The role of the SDP is to prioritise limited resources and provide a framework within which to align the investment plans of the key agencies and others.”
2.4.3 “The Spatial Strategy aims to encourage key development sectors and promote a sustainable growth pattern. It identifies priority strategic improvements to transport and other infrastructure which are required to support existing and future development.”
2.4.4 The Spatial Strategy sets a framework for the SESplan area to take forward the Vision and Aims of the SDP. It identifies Sub Regional Areas across the SESplan area (e.g. Fife Forth) within which specific (SDAs) are identified with additional development in Fife Forth to be focussed in new SDAs in North Dunfermline and Ore/Upper Leven Valley areas.
2.4.5 The Edinburgh and South East Scotland City Region authorities produced an interim Regional Spatial Strategy. The recently ratified Strategy focuses on Regional recovery and renewal, as well as an adaptable and accessible region. The Strategy states that, “Fife’s strategic position stretching between three of Scotland’s cities ... with a long coastline and strategic transport routes provides excellent opportunities for investment to strengthen Fife’s communities and economy. Ongoing planned strategic growth of Dunfermline is the largest of the City Region’s development areas, with levels of strategic infrastructure investment highest outwith a Scottish city. Fife will build on this strong growth around Dunfermline and the Forth bridgehead area...”
2.4.6 Key to the delivery of strategic growth in Dunfermline is the provision of a Northern Link Road (NLR) and a Western Distributor Road (WDR). Both roads will provide a primary frontage through the development sites, in keeping with the principles of place making. Place making connections which afford opportunities for active travel, access to formal and informal leisure activities, and access to green and blue infrastructure are recognised as key components to better physical, mental health and wellbeing. Pedestrian and cycle routes, proposed along the routes of the NLR and WDR, will provide opportunities to access the nearby Country Park and Loch to the north and the Town Park and wider countryside to the south-west. The masterplans for the strategic development sites, which are being developed around these roads and active travel routes have applied the principles of walkable neighbourhoods. It should be noted that new community infrastructure, such as schools, local shops and parkland, and areas of serviced employment land within the development sites have been designed to be walkable and supports the Scottish Government’s ambitions of 20-minute neighbourhoods.
2.4.7 Providing these alternative routes through Dunfermline will relieve congestion and potentially improve the air quality along the Halbeath Corridor which is currently an air quality hot spot. Appin Crescent, Halbeath is one of two Air Quality Management Areas in Fife being monitored for nitrogen oxide (NO2) and fine particles (PM10). (see Fife Air Quality Annual Progress Report 2020).
2.4.8 It is recognised that the Dunfermline SDA build out period will take the programme through the interim reduction targets to reduce greenhouse gases and potentially on to zero carbon targets (2045) as set out in the Climate Change (Emissions Reduction Targets) (Scotland) Act 2019. The NLR and WDR will work alongside new park and ride schemes and a new rail halt at Halbeath Park and Ride. The proposed statutory closure of the level crossing at Halbeath, as part of the delivery of the NLR, will also improve performance on the Fife Circular line. Further access to the south towards Edinburgh via bus has also been significantly improved now that the Forth Bridge is dedicated to public transport. Improved modal options which will promote sustainable and active travel in Dunfermline and the surrounding area include: -
• Electrification of the East Coast Main Line and Fife Circular;
• Dunfermline to Alloa railway route, and electrification, including delivery of the Charlestown Rail Chord to enable direct westerly access to Rosyth Port;
• Halbeath Park and Choose capacity improvements including rail links;
• Improved interchange facilities at Inverkeithing station and Ferrytoll Park and Ride;
• A985/M90 traffic flow improvements serving Rosyth Port and West Fife including provision of park and choose, passenger ferry or river taxi options; and,
• Improved public transport connectivity with Edinburgh City Centre.
2.4.9 The development and application of innovative technology in Fife could, for example, see the hydrogen technology, being developed at Fife Energy Park,
applied to serve the East Coast mainline and Fife Circle trainline in future.
2.4.10 The results of the Longannet Taskforce, which should maximise employment opportunities in the wider area, is also likely to see increased connectivity. The
Charlestown Rail Junction, a proposal in FIFEplan, would see a link between Dunfermline to the Stirling Rail Line and the Fife Circle Line. The route abuts the
northern boundary of the Broomhall SDA. In addition, a site to the west of Dunfermline, may be required to accommodate Talgo. The train manufacturer announced, in Nov. 2018, that it had selected the former Longannet power station as its new factory site, should it win the contract to build trains for HS2.
2.5 Contribution to Local Policy Objectives
Fife’s Local Outcome Improvement Plan 2017
2.5.1 Fife Council, as part of Fife’s Community Planning Partnership, is developing its Local Outcome Improvement Plan, the Plan 4 Fife. The emerging vision is: “by 2027, we want Fife to be a place where all residents live good lives, make informed choices and have a sense of control so that they can reach their full potential, and where all children are safe, happy and healthy. We want Fife to be a place where we make best use of our assets and facilities while sustaining them for future use. There are four priorities for the Plan 4 Fife:
• Opportunities for all – to ensure that every Fifer can access opportunities in education, training and jobs.
• Thriving places – safe, well-designed and maintained places that promote wellbeing, where people are proud to be, and where they have access to the services and facilities they need at different stages of their lives.
• Inclusive growth and jobs – to improve investment, growth and participation by businesses, people and communities, particularly in the mid-Fife area; to support businesses to grow and make sure that communities benefit from new business investment.
• Community-led services – putting communities and service users at the heart of public services.
2.5.2 Dunfermline Strategic Growth Infrastructure Programme will contribute to meeting these priorities by meeting our ambitions for Fife by, improving access to affordable housing and other community infrastructure, increasing connectivity and therefore access to employment and training opportunities (see Appendix 8.6 - LOIP extract).
2.5.3 A key focus of the Thriving Places theme within the LOIP is the need to increase the supply of housing within Fife to help meet the challenge of Fife’s growing population with more than 20,000 new homes needed over 10 years.
2.5.4 This is to be achieved by facilitating house building through well planned, sustainable communities, with adequate community infrastructure and affordable
housing. Among the actions is one to “promote investment and align public sector capital investment to unlock developer funding for transport and education
infrastructure.” This business case seeks to contribute to this aim and unlock development and transportation investment. Adopted FIFEplan 2017 (Fife Local Development Plan)
2.5.5 FIFEplan, was adopted in September 2017. It supports the creation of a place in which, by 2026, economy activity has recovered, and building is at a higher level of activity than at present, resulting in sustainable economic growth. This will be achieved by allocating land for new homes to be built and for investment in
economic growth and regeneration. The Plan policies encourage new, high quality development to achieve this.
2.5.6 Preparation of the next Local Development Plan (LDP) will commence later this year, with an indicative proposed new FIFEplan being ready for consultation in April- June 2023 and adoption in July-September 2024. The future housing allocation for Fife, which will be set out in the Housing Need & Demand Assessment (HNDA) 3, is currently unknown. However, the requirement to deliver the number of houses as allocated in the currently adopted LDP will still stand.
2.5.7 The adopted FIFEplan strategy combines growth ambitions with improving Fife as a place to live and work – keeping safe Fife’s rich environmental assets and improving and protecting the quality of Fife’s towns and villages as they change. The delivery of the SDA programme is central to delivering FIFEplan’s vision and strategy.
2.5.8 The Dunfermline Strategic Growth Infrastructure Programme will comprise a significant catalyst in securing the outcomes identified in FIFEplan. Dunfermline is a main focus for a large amount of strategic growth over the Local Development Plan period. The provision for a Northern Relief Road and a Western Distributor
Road is essential to the delivery of these strategic developments. These will work alongside active travel options, the new park and ride at Halbeath and the improved access to the bridges to provide a range of travel options. There is also potential for improved rail connectivity through the introduction of a rail link between Inverkeithing and Halbeath, consistent with the Transport Scotland’s Strategic Transport Projects Review. Direct investment in essential infrastructure will support the delivery of up to 8,000 homes and 80ha of serviced employment land within Dunfermline alone. There will be additional benefits to the wider Strategic
Transportation zone where a total of 14,000 houses are programmed. (See Appendix 8.5 Transport Zones and Appendix 8.7 Financial Model.)
2.5.9 Safeguarding and improving the environment are central to the Local Development Plan Strategy. The FIFEplan Strategic Environmental Assessment - Environment Report assesses the potential significant environmental impact of implementing the policies and proposals contained within the Plan across a number of themes. The summary for the strategy for Dunfermline is that it can be delivered without significant adverse impacts on the environment.
2.5.10 FIFEplan does not exist in a vacuum. It complements and supports the Council’s Local Outcome Improvement Plan (Plan 4 Fife), Local Community Plans, and the Fife Economic Strategy. It also supports the Council's aims of providing more good quality affordable homes and builds on the success of the 3,104 affordable homes that have been built in the last 5 years. FIFEplan Planning Obligations Framework Supplementary Guidance 2017
2.5.11 FIFEplan Local Development Plan Policy 4: Planning Obligations and the related Supplementary Guidance on planning obligations provides the mechanism for developers to pay towards infrastructure required to mitigate the impact of their development. Contributions must be reasonable and proportionate to meet relevant planning tests in Scottish Government Planning Circular 3/2012. The FIFEplan policy and guidance allow exemptions from making contributions including
affordable housing and development on brownfield land; but if the proposed development would create a critical capacity issue for the school estate, the
exemptions may be set aside, and a contribution sought. These exemptions are built into the financial modelling that supports this business case.
2.5.12 As developer contributions are collected by Fife Council, for the strategic transportation interventions, they are held in an Infrastructure Fund. This approach allows cumulative contributions to be used in the most effective manner. In the event that an intervention was not delivered the developer contributions would be refunded after an agreed period of time as agreed in the developer’s individual Section 75 Agreements.
2.5.13 On site requirements, local to individual developments within the SDAs, will be expected to be provided by the developer in a timely manner to serve proposed development, particularly active travel and sustainable transport measures.
2.5.14 The draft framework lists the Transportation interventions; identifies the Strategic Transportation Zones and confirms that transport contributions for the Dunfermline Zone will be held in the one of four sections of the Infrastructure Investment Fund (IIF). Developers will pay for interventions, totalling £50.055m at 2020 prices (£66.8m when index linked). Details on the operation of the IIF, including the value and timing of contributions collected for the Dunfermline Transportation Infrastructure Fund will be monitored through the annual HIF grant monitoring report.
2.6.1 The Local Development Plan process has afforded a number of opportunities to comment on the SDA proposals, including the delivery of the Northern Link Road and the Western Distributor Road. Following Fife Council’s Executive Committee approval on 23rd June 2015, the Proposed Local Development Plan was submitted to the Scottish Government Examination process. Through the examination process the Scottish Government Reporters considered all unresolved representations submitted to the Proposed Plan and made recommendations on any modifications that Fife Council required to make to the Plan prior to adoption.
2.6.2 Planning applications for the SDA sites will have to be accompanied by a Planning Application Consultation report. The site promoters will undertake comprehensive community consultation on the individual masterplans. Planning applications for the strategic transportation interventions, to be delivered by Fife Council, will also be the subject of community consultation and be accompanied by a Planning Application Consultation report.
2.7.1 A comprehensive programme of infrastructure delivery is required to support the SDA sites, to ensure that new development addresses any additional impacts on roads, schools and community facilities. It is proposed that this will be funded through developer contributions, as set out in FIFEplan Planning Obligations Framework Supplementary Guidance 2017. The framework within the supplementary guidance lists the Transportation interventions (see Appendix 8.1 –Strategic Infrastructure Transportation Measures) and identifies the Strategic Transportation Zones (see Appendix 8.5 - Dunfermline Transport Zones). It also confirms that transport contributions for the Dunfermline Zone are held in the one
of four sections of the Infrastructure Investment Fund (IIF).
2.7.2 The major roads, i.e. the Northern Link Road and the Western Distributor Road, will provide the primary routes through the SDA sites. The provision of the on-site components of the routes will be the sole responsibility of the developers to fund and deliver through their respective sites.
2.7.3 The Dunfermline Strategic Land Allocation TA (2011), prepared for the Dunfermline & West Fife Local Plan, identified strategic transportation intervention measures (STIM’s) required to support SLA development. The FIFEplan TA was undertaken in 2015, which included an update of the Dunfermline SLA TA, tested existing STIMs and an east and west extension of the Northern Link Road. Individual TAs have been submitted in support of each development site’s planning application. There is a strong evidence base to identify when interventions will be required. A timescale can be placed on each STIM by using the infrastructure capacity triggers set through the Section 75 agreements and the latest build programme for each site from the annual Fife Housing Land Audit. However, the current scale of developer interest in Dunfermline, which has seen the majority of sites coming forward at the same time, results in forecast build out rates, as seen in the Housing Land Audit, that require earlier interventions. Further detailed design work will be undertaken for each intervention to further refine the high-level cost estimates.
2.7.4 The phasing and delivery of the interventions has been further tested by transportation modelling work commissioned by Fife Council in the autumn of 2020,
in order to review the current STIMs, traffic assumptions and delivery programme. This additional transport modelling concluded that all programmed Dunfermline
Strategic Transportation Intervention Measures are still required and that no additional transport infrastructure is necessary to support the strategic growth of
2.7.5 The development partners are all committed to a high modal shift to meet environmental objectives. The provision of additional and enhanced cycle and
pedestrian routes and connections to public transport (both bus and rail) are a fundamental part of each development.
2.7.6 The Council’s Strategic Transportation Interventions Delivery Board (see Appendix 8.9 Strategic Transportation Interventions Delivery Board Remit) has a remit to deliver the strategic transport interventions required to serve Fife’s proposed strategic growth. Whilst, the work of the board will be Fife-wide it will initially concentrate on Dunfermline where the development pressure, and consequently pressure on existing infrastructure, is most acute. The Strategic Transportation Board (see below) will be responsible for signing off the prioritised transportation interventions, in conjunction with Fife Council’s Investment Strategy Group and the Policy & Co-ordination Committee. The Strategic Transportation Board will also be responsible for producing work programmes for all transportation interventions (including design work, lead-in times and delivery).
2.7.7 High level infrastructure design and costing work was undertaken for the Dunfermline Strategic Land Allocation TA 2009 and the FIFEplan TA 2015. This has
been refined further by the individual transport assessments undertaken by the SDA developers. Fife Council Asset, Management & Design have commenced a
programme of design work. Specific measures, currently, being examined in more detail include the design work for the Northern Link Road and the compulsory
purchase of land to deliver the Northern Link Road and the Western Distributor Road.
2.8 Do Nothing
2.8.1 Fife’s Development Plan for the Dunfermline area (SESplan and FIFEplan) includes a commitment to strategic growth, including strategic development areas/strategic land allocations across Fife. In order to facilitate this growth, additional transportation infrastructure is required. Action to address current constraints to development has been identified. A grant to part fund strategic transportation interventions would allow the timeous delivery of the infrastructure as, without the intervention, the Council would not be able to fund the gap identified as a result of the increased costs. Transport Assessments, undertaken on behalf of Fife Council and the individual developers, have considered how to ensure the existing road network operates within capacity for as long as possible prior to the strategic interventions being required (e.g. certain interim measures are being adopted, such as additional signalisation). The interventions will, however, be required prior to sufficient funds being collected through developer contributions.
2.8.2 A shortfall in funding to deliver key infrastructure could risk planning applications being refused. If that were to happen for development supported by the
Development Plan, applicants may appeal planning refusals and planning permission could be granted on appeal leaving the Council to find funding solutions
to deliver infrastructure. The impact of planning by appeal of course is a significantly reduced ability to secure the most positive outcomes and to co-ordinate growth with infrastructure delivery and mitigation. There is also a reputational risk to the Council if it is unable to deliver its own approved development strategy.
2.8.3 Alternatively, sites which are consented with a condition that a particular intervention is required at a certain trigger point will find that house building will be
stopped. For example Wellwood, in the North of Dunfermline, requires the delivery of the Pitreavie Roundabout signalisation and an additional southbound lane on
A823 prior to occupation of 250th house. This intervention is required by Transport Scotland. Failure to deliver would result in a build-up of queue lengths on the A823 (M) arm of the roundabout and increase the probability of queueing vehicles being struck by high speed vehicles leaving the M90. Transport Scotland would insist on the enforcement of the condition requiring that further house building stop until the intervention was completed. It should, however, be noted that this intervention is currently being delivered.
2.8.4 Table 2.1 identifies the result of a do-nothing approach for each Dunfermline STIM intervention. It is anticipated that all sites, if consented, would stall due to the critical nature of the transportation network in Dunfermline. Housing construction would be effectively halted by the required infrastructure not being delivered to facilitate development. Doing nothing would result in the non-delivery of the SDA Programme in Dunfermline. As a result National, Regional and Local Objectives to deliver homes and economic growth through strategic growth would fail. The consequences of failing to deliver enhanced connectivity in Dunfermline would also impact on other parts of Fife, in particular Mid Fife, and the wider Edinburgh City Region.
2.8.5 Ultimately, a shortfall in funding to deliver key infrastructure will result in the nondelivery of much needed local affordable housing. Thus, failing to deliver on the Housing to 2040 vision, the Infrastructure Investment Plan for Scotland, Fife Council’s Local Outcome Improvement Plan (in particular the themes of Thriving places and Inclusive Growth and Jobs) and the policies and proposals of the Local Development Plan.
3.0 ECONOMIC CASE
3.1 The Edinburgh City and South East Scotland City Region
3.1.1 The Edinburgh City and South East Scotland City Region economy pre- COVID has been experiencing healthy levels of growth with a variety of
thriving sectors. The City Region brings together six local authorities that span a large and varied geographic area with a population of 1.33 million, and an
economy that generates £32.39 billion GVA per year.
3.1.2 The diversity of the City Region means that it is ideally placed to support a number of vibrant and growing industries. A City Region Deal that proposes
a targeted series of interventions and projects to address the barriers to development, while building on the area’s existing strengths, will accelerate
economic growth, as well as address the inequality and productivity challenges.
3.1.3 The objective of current job creation in the region has focused on skills programmes in highly productive sectors in, for example, technology, science,
finance, and energy and in driving higher productivity across lower income levels. This has resulted in growth for these high value sectors, however there
should be a continued focus on developing supply of skills and a workforce in this area.
3.1.4 To attract inward investment, businesses need to see investment in the region’s infrastructure. Across the region barriers to business growth include
the availability of development land for housing and commercial expansion in urban areas, as well as physical and digital connectivity issues. The strategic
growth of Dunfermline will contribute both to the delivery of additional housing and employment land and will help attract new inward investment into the
3.1.5 Existing transport infrastructure will need to be upgraded to reduce journey times, maintain safety, and improve road and rail connectivity across the City
Region augmenting significant connectivity investment already delivered or in the pipeline.
3.1.6 Within this context, Fife Council has a long-standing commitment to growth around the west and north of Dunfermline. This strategy was devised early
this century to address the growth requirements of the local population and the demand from inward migration. Although delayed by the recession, this
strategy is now being realised through the progression of all the major development sites around the town.
3.1.7 As the largest town in the South East of Scotland, after Edinburgh, Dunfermline is a natural focus for economic growth. The south Fife area has
a strong economy of its own but also benefits from close links to Edinburgh. These have been enhanced by the delivery of the Queensferry Crossing
across the Forth, and the dedicated public transport route across the Forth Road Bridge.
3.1.8 The south Fife area is identified as a key driver in the Regional Economy in SESplan 1. With National Planning Framework (NPF) 3 identifying the need
for an increased focus on housing delivery across the South East of Scotland, and the South of Fife containing a large proportion of the growth planned in
the region to 2036, there is a clear need to focus the delivery of infrastructure to provide the context for this growth. NPF3 also states that innovative means
will be necessary to fund the infrastructure that is required to enable and support on-going inclusive growth.
3.1.9 The delivery of sustainable economic growth in Dunfermline is being progressed in alignment with the principles of the Infrastructure First approach
and the Scottish Government infrastructure investment programme outcomes. The infrastructure investment programme is focussed on delivering good
outcome and sustainable places.
3.1.10 Driving inclusive economic growth. Fife Council will deliver a major investment programme in transportation infrastructure in Dunfermline to
support the delivery of homes, employment land and community infrastructure such as schools, shops and urban parks. Such investment will accelerate
inclusive growth, create new economic opportunities, and new jobs that will help to reduce inequalities in the Dunfermline area and beyond. This will be
achieved through direct investment by the Council working in partnership with private sector landowners and developers to leverage additional investment
and funding into Dunfermline, Fife and the City Region.
3.1.11 Transitioning to net zero emissions. It is recognised that the Dunfermline SDA build out period will take the programme through the interim reduction
targets to reduce greenhouse gases and potentially on to zero carbon targets as set out in the Climate Change (Emissions Reduction Targets) (Scotland)
Act 2019. The programme of Strategic Transportation Interventions (STIM) will work alongside new park and ride schemes and a new rail halt at Halbeath
Park and Ride. Improved modal options which will promote sustainable and active travel in Dunfermline and the surrounding area.
3.1.12 Building resilient and sustainable places. How the land-use elements (housing, employment, and community infrastructure) could be accommodated in Dunfermline in a manner which would result in “high quality, sustainable & distinctive place-making". The starting point of the Framework was the development of walkable neighbourhoods based around mixed-use local centres and local employment land, supported by improved transport facilities.
3.1.13 To help ensure the best value for taxpayers' money in the delivery of vital public infrastructure projects in Dunfermline. Fife Council has worked
closely with the Scottish Futures Trust (SFT) in preparing this business case to secure funding for the Dunfermline strategic transportation interventions.
3.2 Dunfermline Economic Context
3.2.1 Dunfermline has a population of around 56,832 people, about 15% of Fife’s population. Whilst Dunfermline is one of the least deprived areas of Fife with
only 9.3% of its population classified as income deprived and 7.9% employment deprived in the Scottish Government’s latest Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD20), between 2016 and 2020, the number of its data zones (and population) in the most 20% deprived in Scotland increased.
3.2.2 In addition, neighbouring Cowdenbeath has the second highest rate of deprivation in Fife - 17.0% of its population are income deprived (compared
with a Fife average of 11.9%) and 13% are employment deprived (compared with a Fife average of 9.4%). Cowdenbeath and the area covered by West Fife
and Coastal Villages also have a high number of people claiming out-of-work benefits. In September 2020, their claimant counts were 7.7% and 7.1%
respectively compared with 6.7% in Fife as a whole.
3.2.3 The area covered by Dunfermline, South West Fife and Cowdenbeath Area Committees contains 35.7% of Fife’s most deprived areas (11.2% are in
Dunfermline, 19.4% in Cowdenbeath and 5.1% in South West Fife).
3.2.4 The strategy for south Fife has a strong focus on creating the economic climate and improved accessibility to address these inequality challenges.
3.3 Dunfermline Housing Market
3.3.1 Market-based investment has already achieved a significant level of growth in Dunfermline which is located within 30 minutes travel time of Edinburgh city
centre. Its population grew by 10,000 residents/22% between 2001 and 2011. Further expansion to the north and west could be enabled by the delivery of
key infrastructure projects, such as the Dunfermline Northern Link Road, the Western Distributor Road, Rosyth Park & Ride and the Charleston Rail Chord.
3.3.2 In comparison to other settlements of a similar size Dunfermline performs well. Dunfermline has weathered the post credit crunch downturn better than
settlements of similar size. Table 3.1 shows the 12 most populous localities in Scotland and indexes their populations against Dunfermline i.e. Dundee’s
population is 2.79 times that of Dunfermline. From these localities, 5 were selected as house building comparators to Dunfermline – Dundee; East
Kilbride; Hamilton; Kirkcaldy and Dysart and Perth (shaded blue in Table 3.1). Appendix 8.3 (Dunfermline Housing Market Report) assesses Dunfermline
against these comparator localities to assess the strength of the Dunfermline housing market by looking at population, new house building activity, house
sales activity and house price increase.
3.3.3 As Table 3.2 shows, Dunfermline is nearly 3 times as successful in attracting new development as its nearest neighbour, Kirkcaldy. If the mean completions
figures were to be normalised by the population index, i.e. mean completions ÷ population index, in order to remove locality size as a factor in attracting and
delivering new build housing, Dunfermline is by far the most successful of the comparator localities in attracting new build housing.
3.3.4 The data in Appendix 8.3 (Dunfermline Housing Market Report) highlights that Dunfermline has a strong housing market. Dunfermline has weathered the post credit crunch downturn better than settlements of similar size. Whilst all localities underwent a significant reduction in new housing completions
following the credit crunch and onset of the recession in 2008, of all the comparator localities, Dunfermline shows the most consistency from year to
year demonstrating its resilience and its attractiveness to developers.
3.4 Why City Deal?
3.4.1 Dunfermline has now reached a point where economic growth, on a scale envisaged by national and regional strategy, will be unable to continue at the
scale and timing anticipated until significant investment has been made into the town. Additional capacity is required within the school estate and the
transport network within 2-3 years. Neither the private nor public sectors have the required funding to undertake these projects. Private sector infrastructure
investment will be leveraged through the planning process but will also be made in the housing stock as the SDAs are developed. It will also enable
private sector investment in the development of employment land in South Fife. Monies from the Housing Infrastructure Fund, via the City Deal
Programme would allow development to be unlocked and proceed.
3.4.2 The advantage of HIF City Deal Funding is that this funding solution allows a package of support to be delivered rather than individual HIF applications for
each intervention. The primary risk of individual applications would be no certainty that all applications would all be successful, thus creating a lack of confidence. Packaging all interventions within this Business Case, which covers the full STIM programme and provides detail for the first grant phase,
provides confidence and certainty in the STIM delivery programme to the market to enable private sector investment.
3.4.3 Together, the early delivery of these projects will allow an accelerated progression of 2,000 affordable, and additional market housing, and
employment sites to the benefit of the whole City Region. This will provide employment opportunities accessible to an area of persistent deprivation. It
will allow the south Fife area to operate at an improved level of sustainability through greater public transport options and improve access to the wider City
3.4.4 South West Fife has significant potential for further inclusive growth. Therefore, the Council and partners are continuing to promote the location
given its strong existing employment profile and the areas excellent transport links, in addition to the areas strong skills base which stems from a proven
track record in industry. Continued focus will also be placed via the Fife Economic Strategy 2017 to drive forward innovation and entrepreneurship by
attracting new industry and modern employment uses to the area. Within this context, the Port of Rosyth remains a location for strategic investment and
3.4.5 City Deal funding support would also encourage the private sector to invest in commercial property. Research by Rydens in 2014/15 concluded that
significant challenges face the sector in Fife. A growing obsolescence (physical, functional and energy) of the industrial and office stock, is resulting in the reduced availability of quality properties to encourage high value businesses to locate to Fife. This is affecting the productivity of existing occupiers. The employment land allocation, which would be facilitated by the strategic transport infrastructure in Dunfermline, will provide opportunities for new development to address the obsolescence of industrial and office stock.
3.4.6 Current policy partly addresses the strategic transportation interventions funding issue through an assumption that developer contributions will primarily
fund the interventions. However, the housing sites require a timing lag to be applied and funded to deliver the essential strategic infrastructure when it is
required and allow development to proceed. In addition, there is a funding gap between the cost of the interventions and expected developer contributions
due to increased costs. If the required infrastructure takes too many years to be realised, the delivery of the step change in economic performance
increases will be delayed. City Deal funding enables the economic infrastructure to be forward-funded and accelerated; to unlock development
and reduce risk for all stakeholders.
3.5.1 Through Regional and Local transport modelling, key transport interventions have been identified that require to be delivered to allow development to
progress. These have been agreed by Transport Scotland and have been set out in the Local Development Plan as main elements of the spatial strategy.
3.5.2 Their funding has also been progressed through Planning Obligations Framework Supplementary Guidance 2017. This policy guidance focuses on
the impact of development on infrastructure and the levels which development should contribute to upgraded or new infrastructure.
3.5.3 Without the transport infrastructure set out in this bid, development cannot proceed in a timely and integrated manner and subsequently the strategy aims
of national and regional planning may not be realised. The south Fife element of the south East Scotland City Region may not be able to assist, at the rate
anticipated, with the increased delivery of housing (including 2,000 affordable units), economic growth and improvements to social inclusion that are
predicted as a result of the strategy.
3.5.4 Therefore, the do nothing or status quo option is not a viable alternative to the proposal in this business case. Equally other options are not suitable
as they would not reflect the outcomes of the transport modelling which the Council has agreed to include as a main part of its Local Development Plan
3.6 Economic Benefits
Gross Value Added
3.6.1 The investment unlocks the complex delivery of key infrastructure that is required to allow private sector investment to deliver growth in this area.
The Housing Infrastructure Fund would enable a viable funding package and provide co-investment to advance housing delivery (including 25%
affordable) for the Strategic Development Areas. It will also accelerate delivery of business investment and forecast increases in GVA and jobs across the SDA and the wider Dunfermline Intermediate Transport Zone (see Appendix 8.5). (Table 3.3 GVA Forecast).
Table 3.3: GVA Forecast
3.6.2 The delivery of these transportation infrastructure interventions would unlock up to 2,000 affordable homes. In addition, it would help deliver a total of up to
8,000 homes in the Dunfermline strategic growth area and have added benefits across the wider region. This investment in the Dunfermline area and
the knock-on impacts on the area adjoining the Bridgehead and Rosyth port facilities will provide new jobs accessible to the residents of Mid Fife and the
3.6.3 The figures in the GVA forecast in table 3.3 are taken from the Fife Economic Model 2018. In 2020, a further estimate of the economic impact of the strategic growth was undertaken by Fife Council (see Appendix 8.12 Approach to Estimating Economic Impact). This appendix sets out the methodology for the
calculation of employment associated with the strategic transport interventions in terms of:
• The long-term/permanent effect from employment land unlocked (circa 80 Ha); and
• The short-term/temporary effect from construction investment in the transport interventions themselves, and the associated construction of homes and schools.
3.6.4 The assessment is made over a 30-year time horizon, and also estimates the indirect and induced employment effects generated by these directly created
3.6.5 It concludes that on average, 1,000 construction jobs per annum will be sustained per annum across the construction phase, assuming a 30 year build out. This is likely to peak in the middle 10 years (years 10 to 20). By the end of the 30 year period, about 1,000 permanent/recurring jobs will have been
created on the employment land allocation. These will build up over time, peaking in the later years, and continue on beyond the 30 years, but no jobs
from the employment land are projected for the first few years. This assessment assumes 25% of the employment land being built out. The 80ha
land allocation is of significant scale and is unlikely to be developed in full during a 30-year period. The employment has, therefore, been reduced by a
further 75% to allow for an expected rate of build out and the risk that constraints render some sites undevelopable in the short to medium-term.
3.6.6 There is no comprehensive data available about the impact of COVID on employment effects or multipliers and this has therefore not been modelled. It
would be reasonable to assume that, overall, COVID-19 will not significantly affect the total number of jobs created by each £1m invested by the
construction sector. However, it may affect the balance between direct and indirect jobs as it could effectively push activity out to the supply chain and
away from construction sites e.g. construction firms may seek products that minimise on-site assembly. It is not clear at this stage the extent to which this
will happen and whether any changes will revert to pre-COVID approaches or endure as part of a new normal.
3.6.7 Regional approaches to off-site construction will have a bearing on the extent to which this shift will constitute leakage from the region (and indeed Scotland) and to what extent it will simply redistribute impacts between different sectors and geographies within the region.
3.6.8 There is no comprehensive data available about the impact of BREXIT on employment effects or multipliers and this has not been modelled. There is
some evidence of increases in the cost of imported raw materials, and rising wages as labour supply for the sector contracts due to fewer migrant workers.
Both of these affects are likely to result in an overall reduction in the number of jobs created per £1m invested. Future trade deals, migration and innovation
in the sector will influence the number of jobs sustained by construction investment.
4.0 COMMERCIAL CASE
4.0.1 Fife Council has a strong desire to see the strategies and allocations of SESplan, FIFEplan and the Plan 4 Fife delivered. This includes as a key focus
the strategic growth of Dunfermline to the benefit of Fife and the wider Edinburgh and South East Scotland City Region.
4.0.2 As identified within the Economic Case (Chapter 3), Dunfermline has a strong housing market. Whilst all localities underwent a significant reduction in new
housing completions following the credit crunch and onset of the recession in 2008, of all the comparator localities, Dunfermline shows the most consistency
from year to year demonstrating its resilience and its attractiveness to developers. Dunfermline is in addition nearly 3 times as successful in attracting new development as its nearest neighbour, Kirkcaldy. Analysis of housing completions indexed against population demonstrates that every comparator locality is outperformed by Dunfermline. It has delivered significantly more new housing than all comparators and has sufficient land allocated and programmed as effective to maintain, and improve on, new housing delivery.
4.0.3 The case, therefore, for continued housebuilding in Dunfermline remains very strong. This is reflected in the projected build rates for Dunfermline, as supplied by development interests, within the Housing Land Audit 2019. The accuracy of previous projections for the Dunfermline Housing Market area
within the Housing Land Audit has been analysed and found to have a high level of accuracy over most of the last 8 years due to the strong housing
market (Table 4.1). When sites are allocated and gain planning consent, units are built and sell reflecting the strong market demand. Due to a very strong
year in 2016/17 when 121% of the programmed housing output was achieved, the programmed output for the following year (2017/18) was increased
accordingly. 2016/17 was a uniquely high level of completions and completions have now reduced as illustrated in Table 4.2. As this increase in
completions has not been sustained, the adjusted 2017/18 programmed output resulted in an over prediction of 30%. This has levelled and, as a result,
the 2018/19 prediction is within 10%.
Table 4.1: Housing Land Audit Prediction Accuracy1
1 Data does not include small site completions and assumptions in calculations Less than 100% indicates an over-prediction, more than 100% indicates an under-prediction Key
4.1 Appraisal of Delivery & Funding Options
4.1.1 The UK Treasury Green Book is guidance issued by HM Treasury on how to appraise policies, programmes and projects. It also provides guidance on the
design and use of monitoring and evaluation before, during and after implementation. The role of appraisal and evaluation is to provide objective
analysis to support decision making, including the scrutiny of business cases by government departments. The principles of the Green Book also support
options appraisal. It is intended to assist in the development of transparent, objective and evidence-based advice to inform consistent decision making
across government. This approach has been applied to the delivery of the Dunfermline Strategic Transportation Intervention Measures below.
4.1.2 It should be noted that Strategic Transportation Intervention Measures (STIMs) 7, 8 and 9 (Whitefield Road; Appin Crescent & Elgin St. Link Road),
which were included in the FIFEplan Planning Obligations Guidance 2015, are no longer required and have been removed from FIFEplan Planning
Obligations Guidance 2017. FIFEplan 2017, which replaced the Dunfermline & West Fife Local Plan 2012, identified additional land allocations which
required different transport solutions, e.g. the Northern Link Road (NLR) was extended to the east and west removing the need for through trips in the town.
STIMs 10, 11 and 12 were consequently renumbered to 7, 8 and 9 as below. As a result, STIMs 1 - 9, only, are referred to throughout the business case,
including in Section 2.8 Do Nothing (Table 2.1). However, the Options Appraisal below includes the original (12) interventions in the Do maximum
4.1.3 Strategic Transportation Intervention Measures (STIMs) (1-9): -
Figure 4.1, below, shows the location of the following strategic transportation
1. Pitreavie Roundabout Signalisation & Additional Southbound Lane on A823
2. Kings Road/Admiralty Road (A985) junction signalisation
3. Bothwell Gardens Roundabout Signalisation
4. Northern Link Road (NLR) - East End
5. Western Distributor Road (WDR) - Grange Drive Link Road
6. NLR - A823 - Whitefield Road
7. WDR - Coal Road including bridge crossing of Dunfermline - Alloa Railway (previously no.10)
8. WDR - William Street/Rumblingwell junction upgrade (previously no.11)
9. WDR - William Street (previously no.12)
The transportation intervention triggers on individual sites are listed below and mapped.
4.1.4 Transportation Intervention triggers on individual development sites: -
1. Pitreavie Roundabout required prior to occupation of 250th house
2. Bothwell Gardens signalisation prior to occupation of 350th house
1. Pitreavie Roundabout required prior to occupation of 312th house
2. Kings Road/Admiralty Road junction signalisation required prior to occupation of 312th house
3. WDR – Grange Road Link required prior to occupation of 655th house
4. WDR – Coal Road required prior to occupation of 1,413th house
5. WDR – William Street/ Rumblingwell junction required prior to occupation of 1,413th house
6. WDR – William Street required prior to occupation of 1,413th house
1. NLR - East End required prior to occupation of 340th house
Wellwood, Colton, N. of Wellwood, Swallowdrum & Berrylaw
1. NLR – A823- Whitefield Road required prior to occupation of 800th house
2. WDR – Coal Road required prior to occupation of 1,187th house
3. WDR – William Street/ Rumblingwell junction required prior to occupation of 1,187th house
4. WDR – William Street required prior to occupation of 1,187th house
4.1.5 It is approved Fife Council policy that developer contributions for off-site transportation interventions in Dunfermline will be collected and held within
the Infrastructure Investment Fund, and the funds drawn down as required for Fife Council to deliver the infrastructure intervention(s). As previously
identified, due to the strong Dunfermline housing market; many of the Dunfermline housing sites are now being considered through the planning
process and programmed to be under construction at the same time. This accelerates the requirement for transportation infrastructure and results in a
cash flow deficit within the Infrastructure Investment Fund that requires to be filled to allow development to proceed.
4.1.6 This development pressure, along with the additional costs, results in a cash flow deficit and requires the previously approved delivery vehicle to be
reviewed. As the financial model illustrates, all funding for each strategic transportation intervention measure will not be collected in its entirety before
the intervention requires to be delivered. Whilst Fife Council had planned for the timing gap within their Capital Plan for the next 10 years, the additional
costs are not reflected in the Capital Plan. Therefore, Fife Council will not be in a position to solely deliver all off-site interventions as all the capital required
will not be collected from developers. In addition, as public sector organisations cannot apply for the financial transactions monies from the City
Deal Housing Fund, an alternative delivery model (i.e. non-Council delivery) was considered to meet the terms of the fund.
4.1.7 The creation of a delivery partnership between Fife Council and the private sector development interests for Dunfermline SDAs to deliver the off-site
transport interventions was explored in the preparation of this Business case. To accord with the terms and conditions of the City Deal Housing Fund, it was
proposed that the private sector interests, through the delivery partnership, would deliver the required off-site transportation infrastructure and borrow
funding to address the cash flow deficit. Fife Council would be a minority partner in the delivery partnership. The role of the Council would be to collect
and retain the private sector contributions within the Fife Infrastructure Investment Fund and allow these funds to be drawn down for the delivery of
the transportation infrastructure by the private sector.
4.1.8 The success of such a delivery model required considerable hurdles to be overcome. Most significantly was the requirement for the responsibility of the
delivery of off-site infrastructure to shift from the Council (current Council policy dictates Council delivery) to the private sector, thus increasing the level
of risk placed on the development industry. In addition, the interest rate applied to City Deal Housing Fund monies have in the past been charged at
commercial rates to meet state aid compliance. This created a higher rate of interest than the private sector (and the Council) could borrow at from
alternative sources, thus increasing overall costs.
4.1.9 The borrowing costs associated with the private sector led delivery of the strategic infrastructure, along with the transference of risk to the private sector
(as delivery lead), understandably resulted in a very significant challenge to gain development industry sign up under the terms and conditions of City Deal
4.1.10 As this business case illustrates, the private sector has the potential to deliver major mixed-use strategic growth in Dunfermline thereby meeting policy
objectives. It is important to note that the development industry is committed to investing in the Dunfermline market. The policy of the Local Development
Plan (and its supporting TAs) requires developers to fully fund the strategic transportation interventions required as a result of the cumulative
development impact (based on the costs at the point planning consent is granted). To facilitate that growth, the Council needs to enable the process
where there is a short-term timing lag in income. This is due to a mismatch between when infrastructure is required to be delivered to unlock development
and when monies from development contributions will be in a position to fund these infrastructure interventions in their entirety.
4.1.11 Furthermore, revised STIM cost estimates have been prepared since the FIFEplan Planning Obligations Framework Supplementary Guidance
2017 was prepared (which set the level of developer contributions in policy). This has highlighted significant additional costs of £15.9m, an increase of
43%. When these costs, along with the introduction of the interest projected to be incurred from the timing gap in income are modelled, it is now projected
that developer contributions will be unable to cover the full cost of infrastructure delivery (capital and borrowing costs). Whilst Fife Council had
planned for funding the timing gap, the shortfall due to increased costs is unaffordable for the council. However, it should be noted that HIF grant/City
Deal funding will be used to reduce the capital shortfall.
4.1.12 Without public sector intervention to bridge the initial upfront infrastructure , the strategic growth of Dunfermline, as proposed through SESplan and
FIFEplan, will not be able to be delivered by the private sector. This will have serious implications for the delivery of affordable housing in Dunfermline. It is
considered essential that public sector intervention is secured to realise the potential economic benefits that would be expected to be accrued through the
provision of new jobs and homes. The SDA Programme will meet the national, regional and local policy objectives if infrastructure can be front funded to kickstart
and unlock development.
4.1.13 While the development industry continue to invest in the strategic growth of Dunfermline, the risk transference and increased costs associated with the
interest rate to achieve the then State Aid compliance created a barrier to the private sector committing to City Deal funding under the current terms and
conditions placed on the City Deal Housing Fund. Another solution required to be found which allows public sector investment to address the timing lag as
well as the shortfall due to the increased costs. This will enable infrastructure to be delivered when required to unlock sites, deliver affordable housing, and
allow the strategic growth of Dunfermline to progress as programmed in SESplan and FIFEplan. The increased costs have also resulted in a greater
risk and level of exposure for the Council to cover. Therefore, an alternative funding solution requires to be found.
4.1.14 Fife Council has investigated alternative funding models with the Scottish Futures Trust and the Scottish Government that allow the Council (rather than
the private sector) to deliver the infrastructure interventions, share risk and injects capital into the SDA programme. As Table 4.3 (UK Treasury Green
Book Appraisal of Delivery Options) concludes, the preferred funding option is a Housing Infrastructure Fund (HIF) grant to part fund the delivery of the
strategic transportation infrastructure.
4.1.15 Therefore, under the terms of the City Deal Housing Fund (the original funding option available), City Deal cannot successfully deliver the required
transportation infrastructure due to the additional costs and risks placed upon the private sector. However, through the investigation of alternative funding
mechanisms, the HIF grant funding mechanism has been identified as the preferred funding solution and allows both development and private sector
investment to be unlocked.
4.2 Risk Sharing/Public Sector Collaboration Options Appraisal
4.2.1 Table 4.3 above highlights the results of the appraisal that was undertaken to identify the potential delivery options available to deliver the Dunfermline
Strategic Transportation Intervention Measures. The preferred option that is reflected in this business case is coloured green. A risk sharing/public sector
collaboration options appraisal has also been undertaken. This was attended by Fife Council, Scottish Futures Trust and the Scottish Government. It
reviewed the appraisal of funding options previously undertaken by Fife Council in Table 4.3, sought to highlight any additional options and ascertain
if all parties agreed with Fife Council’s conclusions. The options considered at the workshop were:
• Financial Transactions
• Risk Share with Private Sector Only
• Scottish Government Guarantee
• Increased Capital Grant Ask
4.2.2 A detailed appraisal of each option can be found within Appendix 8.14: Risk Sharing/Public Sector Collaboration Options Appraisal. The risk sharing/
public sector collaboration options appraisal concluded that a capital grant ask would be the most acceptable option to the Scottish Government and so
confirmed the approach of the earlier Fife Council appraisal.
4.2.3 A phased approach of public funding is proposed. The viability of future investment will be kept under review (over and above grant reporting and the
monitoring requirements set out in Section 6.6 Programme and Project Monitoring, Evaluation and Reconciliation.
4.2.4 Neither the Scottish Government nor Fife Council’s current budgets extend far enough into the future to cover the full projected 15 year expenditure of the
STIM programme. Fife Council’s Capital Plan covers the 10 year period 2021-2031. The additional £15.9m costs are not included within the most recent
Capital Plan. An initial 5 year grant funding application will be submitted for initial Scottish Government funding. Further funding applications will be
submitted to the Scottish Government in future funding periods. Therefore, it should be noted that the assumption of 15 year Scottish Government grant
funding is a significant and uncertain assumption. To reflect this, a series of 3 checkpoints will be built into the programme to agree funding in 5 year blocks.
These reflect the grant funding periods which align with the Scottish Parliament Parliamentary periods. It is understood that there is no Scottish
Government commitment to grant funding over the full programme. Approval of the Business Case will allow the first grant application to be prepared and
4.2.5 The proposal in the Dunfermline Business Case comprises a programme of investment in infrastructure from 21/22 to 35/36 and will form the basis of
multiple grant applications for Scottish Government funding over the 15-year transport intervention delivery period. Whilst the Dunfermline Business Case
covers the wider 15 year programme of expenditure, an initial phase 1 HIF grant application will be prepared for the immediate 5 years of expenditure.
Phase 1 will cover the Scottish Parliamentary period 2021/22 - 2025/26 to align with HIF funding requirements. As the Dunfermline STIM programme is
not self-funding after the receipt of a Phase 1 grant, to help further reduce the gap, borrowing costs and negative NPV, future bids shall be made in
successive parliamentary periods for HIF monies (or its future equivalent).
4.2.6 The investment objectives are listed in Table 4.4 below:
4.3.1 This section provides an overview of the main risks identified in preparing the business case and the related mitigation strategies and actions. A risk register
has been prepared for the purposes of this Business Case outlining the principal risks together with anticipated impact, likelihood and mitigation of
those risks. The risk register is included in Appendix 8.10.
4.3.2 The overall approach to risk management is to achieve appropriate levels of risk sharing at programme and individual infrastructure intervention project
level. This will be key to the successful delivery of the strategic transportation infrastructure intervention projects and to provide sufficient safeguards so that
the Council and private sector are not overly exposed financially.
4.3.3 The proposals have been based on due consideration of the evidence of housing market demand reflected in the Housing Land Audit (prepared with
the industry body Homes for Scotland) and the various transport assessments undertaken.
4.3.4 Subject to approval of the business case, the Council would propose to proceed in preparing detailed design proposals for each transportation intervention. The private sector development interests will continue to secure the necessary consents for the initial phases of their development sites to progress as per the development build out rates/programming reflected in the financial model. It is recognised that as detailed design progresses then the contingency costs will become more accurate.
4.3.5 As identified in the Financial Case (Chapter 5) to achieve best value, it is suggested that a degree of flexibility and movement within the infrastructure
programme is allowed. Various external factors may require for infrastructure to be brought forward or started later reflecting the priorities determined by the
build out programme and its cumulative effect (as per the sensitivity analysis Table 5.5 and Appendix 8.7 - Financial Model). The programme provided,
outlining the priority of the infrastructure provision, is indicative. It is based on the build out programme of the latest published Housing Land Audit (2019),
will be updated annually, and will be subject to further change.
4.3.6 Fife Council takes a prudent approach to managing its financial risk. Any significant investment is based on a detailed Business Case for each phase
of development. This is based on detailed analysis of the costs and benefits of individual projects. Where appropriate, the Council would propose that any
significant capital investment be subject to appropriate mitigation measures such as Section 75 legal agreements being entered into with private sector
4.3.7 Compliance is monitored through the Council’s internal and external audit procedures. Appropriate consent from Scottish Government will be sought
where asset and land ownership issues are incompatible with standard prudential borrowing rules.
4.3.8 The procurement of works and services will be conducted in full compliance with the Council’s procurement regulations and the adoption of the provisions
of UK and Scottish legislation. The Council has undertaken significant procurement exercises in relation to the delivery of infrastructure works in the recent years. Any procurement approach will be developed with the Council’s Procurement Service, including the most appropriate procurement strategy, and procurement risks in relation to securing any contractor and/or consultants in respect of individual projects.
4.3.9 Fundamental to each infrastructure intervention is the delivery of the infrastructure components. Cost variances are included within the financial model sensitivity analysis to reflect the early-stage cost estimates of a number of the proposed infrastructure interventions. Further information of cost maturity can be found in Section 5.7 of Chapter 5 (Financial Case).
4.3.10 There is a risk that the cost of the infrastructure interventions is significantly understated or that phases of the project deliver significant cost over-runs due to currently unknown ground conditions. This might increase the level of unsupported borrowing, increase debt costs or the payback period. Contingencies have been built into the intervention costings and a potential cost-over run has been tested. A series of sensitivities have been run which consider the downside of the current financial assumptions. Prior to any investment, detailed design works, and ground investigation works will have been undertaken. It would be proposed in line with the Council’s procurement policies that a fully transparent tendering exercise be undertaken and only
fixed sum contracts be entered into with the transfer of risk of any cost overruns being relocated to the contractor.
4.3.11 There is a risk that private sector housing demand does not materialise to the extent anticipated or is significantly delayed as a result of, for example, Brexit, changes in government policy, economic instability, legal delays or health & safety issues. Prudence has been an underlying consideration in all the
demand assumptions. It is proposed to take a prudent approach to any investment through the strategic transportation infrastructure measures and
commitment to such investment will only be made on the basis of a detailed Business Case for individual projects.
4.3.12 A build rate for all Dunfermline strategic housing growth is published in the Housing Land Audit 2019. It is assumed new development will proceed largely
as programmed due to the strong housing market and high demand as discussed earlier in this chapter and Chapter 3 (Economic Case).
5.0 FINANCIAL CASE
5.0.1 As already identified, there are significant additional costs of £15.9m as well as a mismatch between when infrastructure is required to be delivered to unlock development and when monies from developer contributions will be in a position to fund these infrastructure interventions in their entirety. Due to the strong Dunfermline housing market; many of the Dunfermline housing sites are now being considered through the planning process and programmed to be
under construction at the same time. This accelerates the requirement for transportation infrastructure and contributes to a cash flow deficit within the
Infrastructure Investment Fund. Fife Council is modelling the Dunfermline Strategic Growth Infrastructure Programme as a self-contained financial model.
This will allow the Council to manage this programme diligently and monitor spend and income against that programmed and mitigate as appropriate. It is
the best way to drive value for money. There is no prescribed City Deal investment model.
5.0.2 Securing City Deal grant for the Dunfermline STIM Programme will help to allow Fife Council to manage and deliver the growth and infrastructure ambitions in Fife. The financial model within Appendix 8.7 (Financial Model) contains the following source data:
• Programmed build rates of development (based on land owner/developer intelligence from the Fife Housing Land Audit 2019 (HLA)) adjusted for assumed COVID-19 delays
• Programme of transportation interventions (including trigger dates when required based on transport assessments and HLA build out rates);
• Programme of agreed payment triggers (both timing of staged payments and values);
• Programme of assumed payment triggers (for sites which have yet to have an agreed Section 75 in place - both timing of staged payments and values);
• Level of developer contributions already collected and either sitting in the Fife Infrastructure Investment Fund (IIF) or already invested in infrastructure delivery.
5.0.3 This source data allows the financial model (which includes the indexation of costs) to identify the level of capital required based on when developer
contributions are programmed to be paid against when the infrastructure interventions are required to unlock development. There is a timing gap within
the Strategic Transportation Interventions Measures programme between when the transportation interventions require to be in place and when developer
contributions will be received in full. This has always been expected and been estimated and accounted for in the Fife Council capital plan. However, capital
costs are projected to be higher than the level that can feasibly be covered from receipt of developer contributions. Housing Infrastructure Fund grant will bridge
the projected capital funding gap.
5.0.4 In most cases, infrastructure will be required to unlock development before development has reached the level that will fully pay for the infrastructure
intervention(s). Front-funding is, therefore, required to address the cash flow deficit and bridge this timing lag.
5.0.5 The key point of this financial case is that it justifies the rationale for Scottish Government paying grant monies in an efficient manner – The preferred
proposal is that the Dunfermline Strategic Transportation Intervention Measures are funded from HIF/City Deal funding to reflect actual expenditure
incurred per financial year. The proposed sources of funding are summarised in Table 5.1 below.
5.0.6 On a cash basis, the programme generates a £15.22m surplus. However, there is a timing lag in receipt of developer contributions which is funded by
the Council. The Net Present Value of the costs is £31.618m and the NPV of developer contributions is £24.18m, creating a gap of £7.42m. The £7.42m
gap in funding is met from £6.97m HIF grant and 0.450m Fife Council. This is based on the assumption of the Council receiving 100% of the expected
developer contributions. Any change in this would result in a financial risk to the Council.
5.0.7 The total cost of the STIMs is valued at £50.055m at 2020 prices. When index linked to date of delivery, the STIMs are valued at £66.8m (£69.1 once
borrowing costs are added). Grant funding will part fund the infrastructure required to unlock development before all sites can progress. This upfront
funding will unlock private sector investment in the off-site STIMs as in Appendix 8.1 (Strategic Infrastructure Transportation Measures).
5.0.8 There is a direct timing relationship between the actual pace of development and the need for the STIM measures on site. Should there be a delay (or
acceleration) to the pace of development then the STIM programme can also be reprogrammed accordingly. This will ensure infrastructure is being delivered at the correct time i.e. not too early to incur unnecessary revenue costs and not too late to result in development hitting triggers and therefore ceasing until infrastructure is delivered. Changes to the STIM programme may lead to reprofiling of the capital plan. However, the principle of the programme being delivered at the pace required by development remains.
5.1 Profile of Funding
5.1.1 As previously identified in the Strategic Case (Chapter 2), the Planning Obligations Framework Supplementary Guidance 2017 lists the required
transportation interventions (see Appendix 8.1 - Transportation Interventions) and identifies the Strategic Transportation Zones used as a basis to calculate
and collect these contributions (see Appendix 8.5 - Dunfermline Transport Zones). The contributions for the Dunfermline Zone will be held in the one of
four sections of the Infrastructure Investment Fund (IIF).
5.1.2 The phasing and delivery of the interventions have been tested by a number of Transport Assessments (TAs) (see the Strategic Case (Chapter 2) and
Appendix 8.8 - Timetable Dunfermline Strategic Transportation Interventions - STIM). Through these TAs there is a strong evidence base to identify when
interventions will be required. However, the current scale of developer interest in Dunfermline, which has seen the majority of sites coming forward at the
same time, results in forecast build out rates, as seen in the Housing Land Audit, that require earlier interventions.
5.1.3 The profiling of the timing lag funding is informed by the phasing and delivery of the interventions as identified above. It is important to note this is based on the proposed build-out rate and programming of the individual development sites and the cumulative effect of this development on strategic transportation
infrastructure. This defines the priorities and timescales for the delivery of the strategic transportation intervention measures.
5.1.4 A strategic transportation financial model has been developed to provide an overview of the expected planning obligations from unconsented housing sites
which will contribute to Dunfermline’s Strategic Transport Interventions. This factors in the phasing of development sites (as at 31st March 2019) and cost
of the Interventions (2020 STIM estimates index linked to date of delivery) based on Transport Assessments undertaken for the development plan
process and subsequently for planning applications.
5.1.5 Analysis of the discounted cash flow financial model has identified a funding gap as a result of the increased costs as well as a timing lag funding profile
that requires to be met to unlock sites and allow development to proceed. The reason for selecting this particular profile is that it provides the capital funding
required to reduce the funding deficit, to allow infrastructure to be delivered timeously, unlock sites and allow affordable housing development to proceed.
Other options considered included a flat-line payment profile over different time periods. However, these other options presented an unacceptable
stalling and blighting of development (as in the Strategic Case, Section 2.8 – Do Nothing), level of financial risk, and borrowing costs so were not considered feasible. It is considered that the strategic transportation financial model is the only affordable option that delivers the desired outcome of
unlocking affordable housing delivery.
5.2 The Council’s Debt Requirement
5.2.1 The financial model combines the infrastructure costs and projected income through developer contributions to estimate the Council’s borrowing
requirement. Borrowing is required to cover any deficit outstanding at the end of each financial year.
5.2.2 The capital and revenue implications of the Dunfermline transport infrastructure requirement have been modelled using a discounted cash flow
(see Appendix 8.7 Financial Model). The capital costs and forecast developer contributions have been indexed using the Building Cost Information Service
(BCIS) and include design costs. Developer contributions held within the Infrastructure Fund gains interest at a rate of 0.25%. Revenue costs have
been inflated at 2%, reflecting the Bank of England target rate. As highlighted in Table 5.2 below, this resulted in a Net Present Value (NPV) Deficit of £0.4m
over the full term of the projected STIM programme, as revenue costs are not funded in this model. This assumes that a Scottish Government grant will be
provided for the full 15 years of expenditure.
5.2.3 For the purposes of the capital investment bid to City Deal the revenue costs have been removed from the model and, as Table 5.2 illustrates, this results
in a NPV £0.4m Deficit, which would indicate that the capital investment is mostly funded if the Grant is provided for the 15 year period, however there is
a timing lag in funding created by the delay in receipt of developer contributions which peaks at £12.4m.
5.2.4 The cash flow graph below (Figure 5.1) shows surplus until the capital expenditure exceeds income in 2024/25 and continues into deficit until
2041/42. Thereafter, the cash flow surpluses increase as future developer contributions are collected and capital spend has been fully funded and
continues in surplus until the Dunfermline SDA house builds are completed in 2058/59. The total capital requirement to close this funding gap peaks at
£12.4m. As identified in Figure 5.1, the capital funding to address this deficit is required from 2024/25 until 2041/42.
5.3.1 As identified above in Figure 5.1, in the first 7 years of the programme there will be a net surplus in the Infrastructure Investment Fund (IIF) which will fund
required infrastructure delivery. The financial modelling forecasts that to allow infrastructure to be delivered when required and allow development to
proceed, the IIF will go into deficit between years 8-25. Work has been undertaken by Fife Council to model the full revenue cost to the Council of the
strategic growth of Dunfermline (i.e. revenue costs which will occur as a result of strategic growth and resulting transport, education and other community
infrastructure). In line with the Fife Council Medium-Term Financial Strategy, approved in September 2017, revenue costs associated with growth are to be
funded by the respective Service(s). These are indicated at £1.355m p.a. at 2018 prices on the full investment programme.
5.3.2 The delivery of around 2,000 new affordable homes, as well as up to an additional 6,000 market homes, and the significant roads and housing
infrastructure in the Dunfermline SDA is a major investment in Fife and key to achieving our growth targets. The STIM measures (indexed at £66.8m) to be
delivered by the Council are only the off-site aspects of the new roads infrastructure associated with the development. In addition, the on-site aspects that are to be provided by the developers are even greater in financial terms with the overall new road’s infrastructure being in the order of £150m. The revenue consequences of this huge investment is significant and grows in time. Immediate costs such as traffic signals, winter maintenance, street
lighting energy, routine maintenance such as gully emptying, and road and lighting faults cannot be avoided and in time as the assets age, greater
maintenance interventions will be needed with the estimate being around £2.5m pa in 30 year’s time including indexation.
5.4 Debt drawdown and repayment profile
5.4.1 The financial modelling presented in this section should be considered indicative at this time but is to an appropriate level of detail to support this
5.4.2 It is assumed that debt repayments will be on an income profile method basis. This method is that any surplus cash collected by the Investment Infrastructure Fund is applied to pay down the remaining principal balance. Early repayment of the principal balance can result in reduced financing costs.
5.4.3 For internal accounting purposes in line with the Council’s treasury management policy, the Council adopts the Council’s long term consolidated
pool interest rate (currently 3.61%). The financial modelling undertaken for this bid reflects this pool rate against the Council’s contribution.
5.5 Summary financial out-turn
5.5.1 The summary outline of the cash-flow is presented in Table 5.3 below.
5.5.2 The total off-site transportation infrastructure capital spend is anticipated to be £66.8m. Table 5.3: Cash Flow includes income sources comprising of Fife
Council and City Deal funding and anticipated developer contributions. It also includes an estimate of the interest costs. The base case generates a negative
Net Present Value (NPV) of £0.4m. In addition, as highlighted in section 6.2, it is proposed that a final reconciliation process is undertaken. This will ensure
that, at the end of the Programme, if any surplus in funds exist, this is reinvested in affordable housing projects in Fife.
5.6 Key Assumptions of Base Case
5.6.1 The following assumptions have been used in the financial model:
5.7 Cost Maturity of Estimates for Transportation Interventions
5.7.1 The costings of the strategic transportation interventions are highlighted in Appendix 8.1 (Strategic Infrastructure Transportation Measures). The costs of
the strategic transportation infrastructure are indicative and are based on the 2011 Dunfermline & West Fife Local Plan Transport Assessment which
highlighted indicative designs and costs. As Appendix 8.8 (Timetable Dunfermline Strategic Transportation Interventions - STIM) highlights, the
2015 FIFEplan Local Development Plan Transport Appraisal (TA) built upon the 2011 TA and this information has been further updated as information has
been received through more detailed specific TAs submitted with individual planning applications.
5.7.2 In the case of the Northern Link Road intervention, costs are very high level. The identified route is indicative, and no ground investigation work has been
undertaken to date. Once ground investigation works and detailed design works are undertaken the costs for the Northern Link Road will be subject to
further change. The degree of change is currently unknown and variations to capital costs have been reflected in the sensitivities tested and base case.
5.7.3 It is suggested that a degree of flexibility and movement within the infrastructure programme is allowed. Various external factors may require for infrastructure to be brought forward or started later reflecting the priorities determined by the build out programme and its cumulative effect (as per the
sensitivity analysis highlighted below and in Appendix 8.7 (Financial Model). The programme provided, outlining the priority of the infrastructure provision,
is indicative. It is based on the build out programme of the Housing Land Audit 2019, will be updated annually, and will be subject to further change.
5.7.4 Whilst this provides the best estimate at this time and has been factored up to include reasonable expectancies and contingencies, assessing cost maturity
highlights that the cost of the infrastructure interventions needs to be reviewed on a more detailed project by project basis with the development of more
specific cost estimates. As each project progresses into the ground investigation, scheme design and optioneering phase, confidence in budget
profiles will improve. There is a risk that the STIM programme could be understated however the intention would be to cost engineer the projects to fit
within the existing budget envelope.
5.7.5 The COVID assumption assumes the delivery of 25% of the Dunfermline housing completions programmed in 2020/21 (due to construction pausing
for 9 months), with recovery over the following 3 years. COVID-19 delays due to adaptions to working practices and disruption to the supply chain are
expected to also have an adverse impact on construction costs. A continency of 15% has been included on construction costs in 2020/21 and
10% in 2021/22. 5.8 Inflation
5.8.1 Cost estimates for the transportation infrastructure have been taken from a 2020 base giving a total cost of £50.05m. Further indexation has also been
applied in the financial model up to date of delivery for each STIM. The total compounded BCIS indexation as projected through the financial model, based
on the programmed build out rate of the Housing Land Audit 2019, creates a total indexed cost of £66.8m. There is a risk that actual costs may increase at
a different rate to the BCIS indexation.
5.9 Sensitivity Analysis
5.9.1 Sensitivity analysis has been carried out to evaluate some of the key variables and assumptions within the financial model and to determine where the main
financial risks and opportunities lie within the project. The positive and negative impacts tested are listed in Table 5.5. The main negative financial
risks relate to a recovery rate of less than 100% for developer contributions and an increase in construction costs. A reduced recovery rate of developer
contributions has the potential to cause a significant impact due to lost revenue and an increase in construction costs will result in a higher capital
cost than that envisaged through the high-level costing estimates undertaken to date.
5.9.2 The recovery rate of programmed developer contributions could be affected by a slower, or faster, build out rate than that envisaged through the Housing Land Audit 2019. A delay in income from developer contributions would increase interest costs on timing lag borrowing, which is offset by increased
indexation being applied. Additionally, a reduction in developer contributions could also result from re-negotiated Section 75 Agreements. Once planning
consent had been granted and a Section 75 agreement concluded, applicants can apply to re-negotiate their Section 75 Agreement through a Section 75A
application. If successful, this could result in a lower developer contribution(s) being agreed from that of the original agreement.
5.9.3 Construction costs could also increase given the current cost maturity of the estimates for transportation interventions as highlighted above in Section 5.7.
Present Value deficit of £0.4m. Whilst the construction costs are at an indicative stage and include built in contingencies, a 10% decrease and 10%
increase in capital costs have been modelled to illustrate the impact of a change in infrastructure costs. As the model highlights, this would affect
the capital gap, timing gap and assumed grant. Work will continue through the STIM Programme and the risk register to monitor the likelihood of
these outcomes and develop mitigating actions as required.
6.0 MANAGEMENT CASE
6.1.1 City Deal funding is sought from the Edinburgh and South East Scotland Region City Deal Programme, although it is acknowledged that funding may
be sourced from an alternative Scottish Government budget(s). The overall governance of the delivery of the Dunfermline Strategic Transportation Intervention Measures will be provided through the Edinburgh and South East Scotland City Deal governance structure as illustrated in Figure 6.1. The Dunfermline STIM Programme sits within the projects listed under the remit of the Regional Housing Board.
Figure 6.1: Edinburgh and South East Scotland City Deal regional governance structure
6.1.2 The Dunfermline STIM Programme will report to the Edinburgh and South East Scotland City Region Deal Executive Board and its Joint Committee. Fife
Council authorised participation in the Joint Committee and City Deal governance in June 2018. The Dunfermline STIM Programme and the wider
Fife Strategic Development Areas Programme is governed within Fife Council by the Council’s Sustainable Growth and City Deal Board. The Board was
established to provide the internal Fife Council governance for all strategic growth and City Deal matters within Fife. The Fife Strategic Growth and City
Deals Board will also integrate the governance relating to both the Edinburgh and South East Scotland Region City and Tay Cities Deals. This will provide
strategic direction and oversee all city deal activities, programmes and projects to ensure inter-dependencies are managed and benefits realised.
6.1.3 Fife Council has established a Sustainable Growth and City Deals Programme Board to provide strategic direction and oversee all city deal activities,
programmes and projects. Its remit includes management of the Dunfermline STIMs Programme and all other City Deal projects to ensure their interdependencies
are managed and benefits realised. The Sustainable Growth and City Deals Programme Board will also integrate the governance relating to both Edinburgh and South East Scotland and Tay Cities Deals. The membership of the Sustainable Growth and City Deal Board consists of senior officers, Heads of Service and Executive Directors from key Council services. Further information on the membership and governance structure can be found in Appendix 8.9 (Strategic Growth and City Deals Programme Governance Structure).
6.1.4 The governance for the delivery of individual strategic transportation interventions will be controlled and overseen by the Council’s Strategic
Transportation Interventions Delivery (STID) Board. Membership of this Board consists of officers from Transportation, Planning and Finance and is chaired
by the Senior Manager for Transportation. The STID Board is directly accountable to the Sustainable Growth and City Deal Board. The individual
project and programme management arrangements are shown below:
6.1.5 As identified in Chapter 4 (Commercial Case), the creation of a delivery partnership between Fife Council and the private sector development interests
for Dunfermline SDAs had been considered. However, the risk transference and increased costs associated with the City Deal interest rate created a barrier
to the private sector committing to City Deal funding under the current terms and conditions placed on the City Deal Housing Fund.
6.1.6 Therefore, Fife Council investigated alternative funding models with the Scottish Futures Trust and the Scottish Government through the preparation of
this Business Case. This was required from a governance perspective to allow the Council (rather than the private sector) to deliver the infrastructure
interventions and share risk whilst also injecting capital into the SDA programme. As Table 4.3 (UK Treasury Green Book Appraisal of Delivery
Options) concludes, the preferred funding option is a Housing Infrastructure Fund grant to part fund the delivery of the strategic transportation infrastructure.
6.2 Managing Change
6.2.1 Project and programme tolerances will set out in terms of cost, time, resources, quality, scope, risk and benefits. Tolerances will be agreed by the
relevant Board and reviewed between programme/grant phases. The financial management and monitoring system of the programme shall include
constantly revising and updating projections as the cost maturity of the programme increases. Where project or programme tolerances are exceeded,
exception reports will be triggered and escalated as outlined below:
6.3. Contract Management
6.3.1 As Scotland’s third largest local authority, Fife Council’s Roads and Transportation Services have a Service turnover of approximately £80m per
annum (capital and revenue). All contracts are actively monitored and managed. Contract management will be undertaken by Fife Council through a
skilled team within Roads and Transportation Services using Fife Council’s Contract Standing Orders – Scheme of Tender Procedures. Quality assurance
requirements will be written into all contracts. The Senior Supplier and Project Manager (as identified in Figure 6.2) are Chartered Civil Engineers and are
Members of the Institution of Civil Engineers and the Engineering Council, each with over 20 years' experience in the industry. Appendix 8.15 outlines
further details of the contract management team.
6.4 Benefits Realisation
6.4.1 The Benefits Realisation Register is set out in Appendix 8.16. The benefits relate to the outcomes of delivering the STIMS as identified in this business
case and the Economic Appraisal set out in Section 3.6. These will be managed and reviewed through the governance and change management
6.5 Approach to Risk Management
6.5.1 The programme risks relate to delivery and viability; finance; and legal. A copy of the risk register is set out in Appendix 8.10. Plans to mitigate risk have been developed. Risks within the control of Fife Council, (staff capacity and appropriate governance arrangements) are being actively managed.
Mitigation strategies relating to the wider economic environment (economic instability, interest rates) have been developed and will be deployed in response to changes or developments. All risks will be regularly reviewed and reported to the Strategic Transportations Intervention Delivery Board.
6.6 Programme and Project Monitoring, Evaluation and Reconciliation
6.6.1 Each project (transportation intervention) will require Fife Council approval to progress to design, procurement and delivery phases. Further reviews will be
carried out after the procurement is completed for each project; and when each project is delivered. Benefit Realisation Reviews will also be conducted.
6.6.2 In order to monitor the outputs from the HIF grant funding, linked to City Deal, it is proposed that there be an annual monitoring process. The process will
• The preparation and submission of an annual report to the Scottish Government; and
• an annual meeting between Fife Council and Scottish Government officials to discuss the annual report, infrastructureand housing delivery progress (programmed versus actual output) and any emerging trends.
6.6.3 The annual monitoring reports, prepared for the delivery of the Dunfermline Strategic Transportation Intervention Measures programme, will monitor
programmed versus actual for a range of measures:
• Developer contributions received and spent (operation of the Infrastructure Investment Fund);
• Housing completions (houses built);
• Programmed completions (houses proposed to be built in future years as per the latest annual Housing Land Audit);
• Trigger dates for individual transportation interventions;
• Intervention costs; and
• Market led intelligence on delivery trends
6.6.4 Regular reporting to meetings of the City Deal Housing Theme Strategic Sites group, the Regional Housing Partners and Housing Board will ensure that
lessons learned through the delivery of the Dunfermline strategic transportation infrastructure can help inform and improve other business
cases being prepared, and programmes delivered, through the ESES City Deal Housing Theme.
6.6.5 In addition, it is proposed that a final reconciliation process is undertaken. This will ensure that, at the end of the Programme, if any surplus in funds generated by Scottish Government/City Deal funding exist, this is reinvested in affordable housing projects in Fife. Such projects would require the prior agreement of the Scottish Government.
7.0 CONCLUSIONS & RECOMMENDATION
7.1.1 The proposal contained in this Business Case is to part fund the delivery of the Dunfermline Strategic Growth Programme STIMs from the Edinburgh and
South East Scotland Region City Deal. This will assist in addressing the funding deficit within the programme and reflects the aspiration to deliver
strategic growth in Dunfermline. This proposal will provide a means to unlock and accelerate investment in essential transportation infrastructure in the
Dunfermline Area. It will facilitate the unlocking and delivery of the strategic growth programme in Dunfermline, thereby providing up to 2,000 affordable
homes, 6,000 private homes, large scale mixed use development and investment in the Dunfermline economy.
7.1.2 The Business Case for Dunfermline shows a commitment to place-based investment. The STIM programme displays a co-ordinated approach to
housing investment through the delivery of essential infrastructure investment first, that will ensure private sector investment, whilst supporting regional
7.1.3 The vision is that this programme will have a transformative effect on Dunfermline, in terms of place making and inclusive and economic growth and
contributes to national, regional and local policy objectives. This vision, therefore, supports not just the ambitions of the Edinburgh and South East
Scotland City Deal, but the strategic ambitions outlined throughout this business case. The investment in up to 2,000 new affordable homes, additionally up to 6,000 new market homes, new schools, employment opportunities and the creation of new sustainable communities will play a crucial contribution to Scotland’s economic recovery.
7.1.4 There is a capital shortfall due to increased costs. In addition there is a timing difference between when infrastructure is required to be delivered to allow
development to proceed and when monies accrued from developer contributions will be in a position to fund these infrastructure interventions in their entirety. The financial model identifies the level of funding required based on when developer contributions are programmed to be paid against when the infrastructure interventions are required to unlock development. In general, infrastructure will be required to unlock development before development has reached the level that will fully pay for the infrastructure intervention(s).
7.1.5 The private sector has the potential to deliver major mixed-use strategic growth in Dunfermline thereby meeting policy objectives. The policy of the
Local Development Plan requires developers to fund the strategic transportation interventions required as a result of the cumulative development impact. The development industry is committed to investing in the Dunfermline market and is already delivering units on the ground. To continue to secure strategic growth in the area infrastructure requires to be delivered timeously so as not to stall development.
7.1.6 Without public sector intervention to fund the capital shortfall and timing gap, the strategic growth of Dunfermline as proposed through SESplan and
FIFEplan, and the outcomes of the Plan 4 Fife (Fife’s Local Outcome Improvement Plan) will not be able to be delivered. It is considered essential that public sector intervention is secured to realise the potential economic benefits in this Business Case that would be expected to be accrued through the provision of new jobs and homes. The SDA Programme will only be able to meet the national, regional and local policy objectives if infrastructure can be front-funded to kick-start and unlock development.
7.1.7 This document presents the Business Case for a proposal to part fund the Dunfermline Strategic Growth Programme, by means of HIF grant funding, as
part of the Edinburgh and South East Scotland Region City Deal. This proposal will provide a means to unlock and accelerate investment in essential
transportation infrastructure in the Dunfermline Strategic Growth Area to facilitate affordable housing delivery as part of large-scale mixed-use
development and investment in the Dunfermline economy.
7.1.8 The advantage of HIF City Deal Funding is that this funding solution allows a package of support to be delivered rather than individual HIF applications for
each intervention. The primary risk of individual applications would be no certainty that all applications would all be successful, thus creating a lack of
confidence. Packaging all interventions within this Business Case, which covers the full STIM programme and provides detail for the first grant phase,
provides confidence and certainty in the STIM delivery programme to the market to enable private sector investment.
7.1.9 HIF grant funding to assist with the delivery of strategic transportation infrastructure in Dunfermline would: -
• enable housing and infrastructure delivery; support quality of life by promoting quality of place and the public interest in Dunfermline in line
with A Plan for Scotland’, the Scottish Government’s Programme for Government; A National Mission with Local Impact Infrastructure Investment Plan for Scotland 2021-22 to 2025-2026; and the Place Principle;
• enable the delivery of up to 2,000 new affordable homes supporting the Sottish Government’s Housing to 2040 vision;
• enable the delivery of up to 8,000 new homes, supporting the SESplan 19,000 target;
• enable the delivery of sustainable place making and new homes supporting Fife Council’s Local Outcome Improvement Plan;
• enable Fife Council to maintain an effective 5-year housing land supply and fulfil its statutory requirement to deliver the adopted Local Development Plan;
• enable the collection of over £66m in transportation contributions (required to improve the local transportation network), and the equivalent of over £100m in education contributions; to sustain the growth from not only the strategic sites but the other 20 or so housing sites allocated in the Local Development Plan, in line with Fife Council's Planning Obligations Supplementary Guidance; and
• enable further economic growth in the Dunfermline area through the creation of construction jobs and the delivery of employment land, and local community infrastructure.
In summary the Dunfermline Business Case: -
• is seeking grant funding of £4.85m over the next Scottish Parliament parliamentary period (2021/22 – 2025/26), to unlock affordable housing - covering 25% of construction costs (to align with 25% affordable housing provision) (see Table 7.1); and
• sets out plans for future phases of the Programme which will require financial support after 2025/26 (see Table 7.1).
It is recommended that the Full Business Case for the Dunfermline Strategic Transportation Intervention Measures is approved to support Housing Infrastructure Fund grant applications.
Senior Responsible Owner:
8.1 Strategic Infrastructure Transportation Measures
8.2 Network Rail Joint Working Agreement
8.3 Dunfermline Housing Market Report
8.4 Dunfermline Strategic Growth Development Overview
8.5 Transport Zones
8.6 Local Outcome Improvement Plan Extract
8.7 Financial Model
8.8 Timetable Dunfermline Strategic Transportation Interventions (STIM)
8.9 Governance Structures
8.10 Programme Risk Register.Extract
8.11 Fife Economic Model 2018
8.12 Assessment for Economic Impact
8.13 Growth Scenarios to Project Future Housing Market Performance
8.14 Risk Sharing/Public Sector Collaboration Options Appraisal
8.15 Contract Management Team
8.16 Benefits Realisation Register
Appendix 8.1 Strategic Infrastructure Transportation Measures
Appendix 8.2 Network Rail Joint Working Agreement
JOINT WORKING AGREEMENT
Heads of Terms
1.0 Project Partners
1.1 Network Rail, 151-155 St Vincent Street, Glasgow, G2 5NW and;
Fife Council, Fife House, North Street, Glenrothes, Fife, KY7 5
1.2 Fife Council will include representatives from Planning Services (PS) and Roads and Transportation Services (RTS).
2.0 Project Objectives
2.1 To implement the adopted FIFEplan Local Development Plan 2017 which promotes strategic growth in Dunfermline.
2.2 To reduce the risk to members of the public from injury at Kingseat Road level crossing on the Fife Circular, Dunfermline by reducing interface
between road and rail users at this at-grade intersection; and
2.3 To deliver an alternative crossing in the form of a new vehicular and pedestrian bridge at Halbeath, Dunfermline; and
2.4 To provide significant improvement to transport infrastructure in Dunfermline by removal of delays to rail services, and vehicle, cycle and pedestrian trips.
Reducing risk to rail passengers; performance benefit for NR; and environmental improvements – air quality.
2.5 To provide an alternative route between the NLR & KIngseat Road (via Pleasance Road).
3.0 Project Outcomes
3.1 To jointly secure the statutory closure of the Kingseat Road level crossing (to both vehicles and pedestrians);
3.2 To jointly secure the design and delivery of a new vehicular and pedestrian bridge and associated footpath links over the railway at Halbeath, Dunfermline; and
3.3 To jointly deliver the first part of the Northern Link Road.
3.4 The Strategic Transport Projects Review 2 (STPR2) with regard to further electrification of the rail network notes (A.49) “in the longer term, extending
into the period beyond STPR, this would include…Phase 3 – Electrification of routes between Edinburgh, Perth and Dundee including the Fife Circle.”
3.5 The Kingseat Level Crossing sits on the Fife Circle Route. The line between Alloa and Dunfermline is not currently signalled to passenger carrying
standards. The Fife Circle is a priority for present investment in new rolling stock ***NR. Its morning peak services can be overcrowded. Failure at the
level crossing signals can result in significant delays for both road and rail traffic.
3.6 The adopted Local Development Plan promotes strategic growth in Dunfermline. Development proposals include the Dunfermline N/W/SW Strategic Land Allocation and the North Dunfermline Strategic Development Area. The SLA/ SDA sites are capable of delivering over 7000 houses, 25% of which will be affordable. In addition, over 80 hectares of employment land are proposed. The proposed development will require a minimum of £35m of transportation infrastructure. This will include the delivery of a Northern Relief Road (NLR) and a Western Distributor Road (WDR). Fife Council will manage the delivery of off-site infrastructure, through the Infrastructure Investment Fund. The Fund will accrue as developer contributions are collected.
3.7 The Northern Link Road will run from Swallowdrum (A907) in the west to the Halbeath Bypass (A907) in the east via the new vehicular and pedestrian
bridge crossing of the Fife Circle.
3.8 There is considerable developer interest in Dunfermline. With a significant number of live and approved applications across the north of Dunfermline
which have the potential to unlock investment, realise regeneration potential, and deliver strategic infrastructure (see 4.3 above).
4.0 Project Structure/Governance
4.1 A Programme Board, to be chaired jointly by Network Rail and Fife Council, will be established (indicative names included).
4.2 A Joint Project Team made up of representatives of Network Rail and Fife Council will be established and run by a Programme Manager (indicative
5.0 Project Tasks/Roles
5.1 The attached Programme Plan identifies key tasks; lead and support; as well as indicative timescales. The key tasks will include:-
Land Acquisition – to be led by Fife Council
Statutory Closure Order – to be led by Network Rail, supported by FC
Community Engagement – to be led by Fife Council, supported by NR
Committee Approval – to be led by Fife Council
Bridge Design, Road Design & Option Appraisal – jointly by Network Rail & FC
Delivery of Bridge (Bridge Construction Contract) – jointly by Network Rail & FC
6.0 Funding (Indicative at this stage for further discussion)
6.1 Land acquisition will be funded by Fife Council.
6.2 The closure of the level crossing and the delivery of the bridge will be jointly funded.
7.1 It is anticipated that delivery of this joint project may take 3 to 5 years. The community engagement and statutory notice procedure can take x months.
There are also a number of tasks of a complex nature from land acquisition to design and construction of the new bridge.
Appendix 8.3 Dunfermline Housing Market Report
1.1 This report assesses the strength of the housing market in the locality of Dunfermline (as defined by the NRS - National Records of Scotland). Both locality
and settlement boundaries are assessed in determining mid-year population estimates by National Records of Scotland (NRS). Whilst the locality boundary for
Dunfermline is a fair approximation of the settlement boundary delineated in FIFEplan – Fife’s Local Development Plan – the settlement boundary assessed by
NRS includes Rosyth, Inverkeithing and Crossgates. Throughout this report, NRS locality boundaries are used. Map 1 illustrates the difference between the FifePlan
Dunfermline settlement, NRS Dunfermline Settlement and NRS Dunfermline locality boundaries. Please note that all tables are ordered by population size and
Dunfermline is highlighted for ease of reference.
1.2 Rather than focus solely on Dunfermline in attempting to assess the strengths of its housing market, this report assesses the Dunfermline locality against comparator localities and looks at population; new house building activity; house sales activity; and house price increase.
2. Comparator localities
2.1 Dunfermline is the 9th largest locality in Scotland (source National Records of Scotland https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-bytheme/population/population-estimates/settlements-and-localities/mid-2016/list-oftables).
2.2 Table 1 shows the 12 most populous localities in Scotland and indexes their populations against Dunfermline i.e. Dundee’s population is 2.79 times that of
Dunfermline. These indices are used to normalise subsequent statistics.
2.3 From these localities, 5 were selected as house building comparators to Dunfermline: Dundee, East Kilbride, Hamilton, Kirkcaldy and Dysart, and Perth
(shaded blue in Table 1.2).
2.4 Dundee was selected as the smallest city which is the centre of a city region. It is nearly 3 times the size of Dunfermline and is also the major service and
employment centre for north Fife and Angus. Dundee is on the East Coast Main Line and has reasonable road and bus links.
2.5 East Kilbride was selected for comparison as the first and largest of Scotland’s New Towns. Like Dunfermline, East Kilbride is served by two railway
2.6 Hamilton has almost the same population as Dunfermline being within 2%. It is served by the motorway network and has a bus station and three railway stations. Hamilton also has further advantages in that it is the administrative centre for South Lanarkshire Council.
Kirkcaldy and Dysart
2.7 Kirkcaldy and Dysart were selected as a Fife comparator. The combined locality was once the most populous in Fife but was overtaken by Dunfermline
sometime after the turn of the millennium.
2.8 Perth is Scotland’s newest city but is of similar historical importance to Dunfermline. Perth also has planned strategic development which could deliver
6,000 - 8,000 homes and, as such, shares similar characteristics with Dunfermline.
3. Housing completions
3.1 New house building is adopted as a measure of the attractiveness of a locality to house builders. Completions figures were collected for each of the localities by year from 2007/08 to 2018/19. This period has one year before the start of the recession in 2008 and stretches to the partial recovery which is beginning to become apparent.
3.2 As can be seen from Table 2 and Chart 1, all localities underwent a significant reduction in new housing completions following the credit crunch and onset of the recession in 2008. Of all the comparator localities, Dunfermline shows the most consistency from year to year demonstrating its resilience and its attractiveness to developers.
3.3 To further explore the relationship between house completions and locality size, Table 3 takes the mean of completions from 2009/10 – 2018/19 and indexes
them by the population index in Table 1.
3.4 As Table 3 shows, Dunfermline is nearly 3 times as successful in attracting new development as its nearest neighbour, Kirkcaldy. If the mean completions
figures were to be normalised by the population index, i.e. mean completions ÷ population index, in order to remove locality size as a factor in attracting and
delivering new build housing, Dunfermline is the most successful of the comparator localities in attracting new build housing.
3.5 Chart 2 combines population of locality (2016 estimate) with mean completions by locality (2009/10-2018/2019) and indexes each comparator locality
against Dunfermline (Dunfermline = 100%) and orders the chart by comparative population. As Dunfermline represents the 100% index in both population and mean completions, any comparator locality which outperformed Dunfermline in these measures would have the % of Dunfermline Completions higher than % of
3.6 Data on programmed development is available for Dunfermline and is given in Chart 3. This shows that Dunfermline has sufficient land to maintain, and improve on, its delivery of new housing.
3.7 Map 2 is a mapped representation of the data in Chart 3 and shows the distribution of completed and programmed housing in Dunfermline from 1999 to
2032. Of particular interest is the small number and area of sites which have failed to deliver housing completions and are no longer programmed. This is a further
indication of the strength of the market in Dunfermline.
3.8 In conclusion, Dunfermline has weathered the recession better than localities of a similar size. When indexed by population, Dunfermline has delivered
significantly more new housing than all comparators and has sufficient land allocated and programmed as effective to maintain, and improve on, new housing delivery.
4. House sales
4.1 Localities which have good employment opportunities, good access to these opportunities and are attractive as places to live, learn, work and take leisure tend to have a high number of house sales as a result. Indeed, the number of house sales can be seen as a measure of the attractiveness of the locality as, not only a place to live, but a place to invest in new development.
4.2 Statistics on house sales have been taken from Zoopla over a ten-year period. Although this ten-year period is not exactly the same period as was used for
new home completions in section 3, the period is sufficiently long to smooth out any anomalies and spikes which may exist in the data.
4.3 Table 4 shows that Dunfermline had the second highest number of house sales of all the comparator localities over the last 10 years. However, the more
homes there are in a locality, the more there are to bring to market. Although, strictly speaking, these statistics should be normalised by the number of homes in each locality, this data is not available and the 2016 mid-year population estimates are used as a proxy for number of homes. Table 5 normalises the data using the population index in Table 1.
4.4 Table 5 shows that, when the house sales data is normalised using the population index, Dunfermline has, proportionally, the greatest number of house
sales over the last 10 years.
4.5 Another indicator of attractiveness is the proportion of house sales which were of new build homes. As stated in paragraph 4.2 the house sales data and the new build completions data do not cover the same period and data which covers the same period is not available. However, both datasets cover 10-year blocks which is of a sufficient sample size to be a reasonable indication of the proportion of new home sales to all sales. Whilst this data should be treated with some caution, the same data has been used for each comparator locality and, barring a significant event which exists in one period but not in another, is sufficient to rank the localities by proportion of new build sales to all sales.
5. House prices
5.1 House prices are an indicator of the attractiveness of a locality as they reflect what the market is prepared to pay. Table 7 may be seen to represent a vindication of the selection process by which the comparator localities were chosen – all average house prices are within ± £25,000 of the mean of means. Dunfermline has a relatively high house price, surpassed only by Perth. However, looking at the longer term, including the worst years of the recession, Dunfermline has the highest overall price increase over the last 10 years of all the comparators. This indicates resilience and return on investment which is likely to be attractive to new housing developers.
6.1 This report, having assessed the strength of the housing market in the locality of Dunfermline, concludes that Dunfermline compares favourably with the selected comparator localities in terms of:
• Historic housing completions
• House sales
• House prices
• House price growth
6.2 Dunfermline has weathered the recession better than localities of a similar size and, when indexed by population, Dunfermline has delivered more new housing than all comparators. In addition, Dunfermline has sufficient programmed land to maintain, and improve on, housing delivery in the locality well beyond 2032. Dunfermline has only a small number and area of sites which have failed to deliver housing completions and are no longer programmed. This is a further indication of the strength of the market in Dunfermline.
6.3 Dunfermline has the second highest number of house sales of all the comparator localities over the last 10 years (Ttable 6). However, when the house
sales data is normalised using the population index ranks 3 ahead of both Dundee and Perth.
6.4 Dunfermline has the highest overall price increase over the last 10 years of all the comparators. This indicates resilience and return on investment which is likely to be attractive to new housing developers.
6.5 This report, having assessed the strength of the housing market in the locality of Dunfermline, concludes that Dunfermline shows the most consistency from year to year demonstrating its resilience and that it is well placed to continue to deliver house completions.
Appendix 8.11 Fife Economic Model 2018
Appendix 8.11 is available on request.
Appendix 8.12 Assessment for Economic Impact
This appendix sets out the methodology for the calculation of employment associated with the strategic transport interventions in terms of:
• The long-term / permanent effect from employment land unlocked (circa 80 Ha); and
• The short-term / temporary effect from construction investment in the transport interventions themselves, and the associated construction of homes and
The assessment is made over a 30 year time horizon, and also estimates the indirect and induced employment effects generated by these directly created
JOBS CREATED ON EMPLOYMENT LAND
Summary of Approach
The expected amount of employment generated is based on the total land area. The gross site area is reduced by 64% to give an estimate of the net
developable area (this allows for roads, gradient, embankments and landscaping, SUDS areas, stand-off areas, parking, etc). It is assumed that
each Ha of developable land can support 70 jobs1.
However, this 80 Ha land allocation is of significant scale, and is unlikely to be developed in full during a 30-year period. The employment has therefore been
reduced by a further 75% to allow for an expected rate of build out and the risk that constraints render some sites undevelopable in the short to medium-term.
Type 1 and Type 2 multipliers from the Scottish Input-Output Tables (2017) were then used to estimate the associated indirect (or supply-chain), and
induced employment2. These are based on an unweighted average across SIC sectors 10 - 32.
The expected jobs will build up over the course of the 30 year period as sites are developed out and occupied. They will continue beyond the 30-year
period as these are permanent effects of the investment.
Summary of Approach
The jobs associated with the transport interventions themselves, and the housing and school investment that they are expected to unlock have each
been estimated separately. These can be combined to give a total figure for employment, and the average annual employment level.
The estimates are based on 2020 prices over a 30-year timeframe and use data from the most recent (2017) Scottish Input-Output tables (see
This approach estimates jobs in Scotland but does not provide a regional breakdown.
Expected levels of investment are based on the following information:
• Immediate Housing – 8,000 units in the immediate SDA area, at £140,000 average development cost per unit (2018 prices)
• Additional Housing – an additional 875 units in the wider SDA area (at the same assumed average development cost as indicated above)
• Transport – £80m of investment (2020 prices, source Table 2.1 of business case)
• Schools – £161m investment (2020 prices, source p. 6 of business case)
The HM Treasury GDP Deflator was applied to express all investment consistently in 2020 prices.
The employment effect and the employment multiplier for the construction sector in the Scottish Input-Output Tables (2017) were used to estimate that
each £10m invested in construction generates circa 87 construction jobs.
Type 1 and Type 2 multipliers were then used to estimate the associated indirect (or supply-chain), and induced employment.
The above ratio was based on the 2017 Input-Output tables. This was adjusted using the HM Treasury GDP Deflator. This reduced the expected
jobs by approximately 6%. Beyond the 30-year timeframe of this analysis the construction jobs will fall to
zero because the construction activity will be complete.
Expected Impact of COVID-19
There is no comprehensive data available about the impact of COVID on employment effects or multipliers and this has therefore not been modelled. It
would be reasonable to assume that, overall, COVID-19 will not significantly affect the total number of jobs created by each £1m invested by the
construction sector. However, it may affect the balance between direct and indirect jobs as it could effectively push activity out to the supply chain and
away from construction sites e.g., construction firms may seek products that minimise on-site assembly. It is not clear at this stage the extent to which this
will happen and whether any changes will revert to pre-COVID approaches or endure as part of a new normal.
Regional approaches to off-site construction will have a bearing on the extent to which this shift will constitute leakage from the region (and indeed Scotland)
and to what extent it will simply redistribute impacts between different sectors and geographies within the region.
Expected Impact of BREXIT
There is no comprehensive data available about the impact of BREXIT on employment effects or multipliers and this has not been modelled. There is
some evidence of increases in the cost of imported raw materials, and rising wages as labour supply for the sector contracts due to fewer migrant workers.
Both of these affects are likely to result in an overall reduction in the number of jobs created per £1m invested. Future trade deals, migration and innovation in the sector will influence the number of jobs sustained by construction investment.
Appendix 8.13 Growth Scenarios to Project Future Housing
In developing the base case, it is important to consider the future performance and behaviour of the Dunfermline housing market. The operation of the Dunfermline housing market is the greatest sensitivity upon which costs and timescales could deviate from that programmed in the Housing Land Audit (HLA). In conjunction with the Scottish Futures Trust, 4 scenarios have been developed to test the effect of housing market performance on the STIM programme. These were initially based on the scenarios developed for the E&SES City Deal Winchburgh model. To reflect the strength of the Dunfermline housing market (including during the last recession) the short term under performance scenario has been altered from that of Winchburgh to include shorter and shallower dips/troughs which reflects the market strength of Dunfermline.
A fifth scenario has also been developed to examine developer optimism bias in the programming of housing completions within the Housing Land Audit.
The OBC and financial model recognises that the Dunfermline SDA programme has potential to provide up to 8,000 homes (including a minimum of 25% affordable – approximately 2,000 units); 80 ha of employment land; 5 new primary schools; £36m in developer contributions to secondary education facilities in the Dunfermline area; as well as other community facilities; all integrated with new strategic transport infrastructure. There will also be additional benefits to the wider Dunfermline Strategic Transportation Zone where a total of 14,000 houses are programmed. All of the above infrastructure will be 100% funded by developers, with either direct provision on site or via Section 75 contributions. In the case of the off-site strategic transportation infrastructure, Section 75 contributions will be collected in a Strategic Infrastructure Fund to be managed by Fife Council.
The Dunfermline housing market has traditionally performed well, as evidenced in the graph below and Appendix 8.3. Dunfermline has weathered the last economic recession better than many similar sized towns. However, the more recent impacts of COVID-19 and the resulting economic recession are largely as yet unknown. The longer-term impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic are harder to predict but it is plausible to assume that sites in Dunfermline may not build out as quickly as currently programmed. As a result, a COVID assumption has been developed. This has reprogrammed the housing output for 20/21 to 25% of the 2019 HLA to reflect the period of lockdown and when housing sites temporarily stopped construction. Within this COVID assumption, it is programmed that the market recovers over the following 3 years. The future phasing of sites will be kept under review.
As previous housing completions illustrate, the market does not produce a constant level of completions year on year. External influences, that are not reflected in the HLA, will affect the behaviour of the housing market, such as recession. Therefore, it is important to reflect this in the base case. In projecting the future performance of the Dunfermline housing market, a total of 5 scenarios were modelled:
1. Short Term Under Performance
2. Longer Term Under Performance
3. Extreme Market Failure
4. Modest Over Performance
5. HLA Optimism Bias 10%
These scenarios have been applied to the 2019 HLA and COVID assumption and modelled to highlight different growth scenarios against different market
positions/behaviours. The output from each scenario has been assessed and the most likely future behaviour of the Dunfermline housing market selected as an input into the base case. It is important to note that the scenarios don't all stop in the same year. This is due to the different scenarios resulting in different build out rates. All scenarios continue until all units are built out and therefore each has a different term. Each scenario is presented below.
Short Term Under Performance assumes a cyclical slowing of market and then recovery throughout the build out period. It does not assume an enhanced
performance relative to the business case as in the earlier period, housing output is dictated by the infrastructure delivery programme and in the later years of the programme, output already reflects a strong market. The shallow slowing of the market within this scenario reflects the strength of the Dunfermline housing market. All units are built out and income recovered by the end of the programming.
Longer Term Under Performance assumes income, via Section 75s, is as projected in the initial years before a decline in the housing market. The market recovers and then experiences another, lesser decline, later in the build out period. All units are built out and income recovered by the end of the programming.
Extreme Market Failure assumes an extreme downturn in the market in a scenario which represents a deep recession. Development will stop and/or sites will stall, resulting in no Section 75 income in certain years before recovery. All units are built out and income recovered by the end of the programming.
Modest Over Performance assumes a cyclical upturn in the market before returning to the projected in the HLA. The Modest Over Performance reflects a cyclical boom in the housing market. All units are built out and income recovered by the end of the programming.
Housing Land Audit Optimism Bias 10% assumes all sites have over estimated annual completions by 10% and adjusts downwards accordingly. The HLA is agreed annually with the house building industry and this scenario assumes that projected completions (versus actual completions) are 10% more optimistic with housebuilders only delivering 90% of the units programmed. All units are built out and income recovered by the end of the programming. As the first 2 years (2017/18 and 2018/19) of this scenario reflect actual site completions rather than 90% of projected completions, they are modelled at 100%.
All Scenario Profiles
Past completions data for Dunfermline during the last economic recession indicates that Dunfermline continued to perform well. Whilst sites slowed, they continued to deliver. Local developers post lockdown are currently indicating a positive outlook, possibly in part due to committed sales and pent up demand. However, this will be more difficult to predict longer term. While Dunfermline is not immune to the effects of recession, the extent of the dip in performance is relative to the strength of the housing market. This suggests the shallow dip of the Short Term Under Performance scenario is the most appropriate scenario to apply in the base case. It is not considered that the Extreme Market Failure scenario, reflecting a deep recession, is appropriate and similarly it is considered that the Longer Term Under Performance scenario (while not as severe as Extreme Market Failure) reflects deeper recession/market dips than is likely to be experienced in Dunfermline given the strength of the market. With the current global pandemic and the signs of the country going into recession, it
is unlikely that the housing market is going to experience an increase in output. Furthermore, as housing output in Dunfermline is directly controlled by infrastructure delivery (and the associated triggers) it is unlikely that the market can increase beyond the completions programmed in the base case as the infrastructure will not have been delivered to support/release the increase in units. On this basis, the Modest Over Performance scenario is not considered appropriate. In the case of Dunfermline, the Housing Land Audit has proven to be accurate with any optimism bias being, on average, less than 10%. This suggests the optimism bias scenario would model a slowing of the market to a greater extent than would be expected for Dunfermline. The Short Term Under Performance scenario, while also slowing the market, is the most appropriate scenario to apply in the base case to model projected performance. The rate of market slowing compared to the HLA 2019 over the length of the project is considerably less for the Short Term Under Performance scenario than the optimism bias scenario, or the deeper dips of the Extreme Market Failure or Longer Term Under Performance scenarios. This reflects the strength of the
Dunfermline housing market.
It is therefore considered that a Short Term Under Performance scenario is the most likely to reflect the future performance of the Dunfermline Housing Market. This scenario is identified as one of the inputs to the base and is reflected in the key assumptions (section 5.6 of the OBC).
Appendix 8.14 Risk Sharing/Public Sector Collaboration Options
Fife Council have been working with the Scottish Futures Trust (SFT) and the Scottish Government’s More Homes Team for some time to establish if, and how, a
collaborative approach between these organisations can resolve a funding barrier to the delivery of Strategic Transport Intervention Measures (STIMs) in and around Dunfermline.
This collaborative approach, through a series of workshops and meetings, has further refined and developed the ask of the Business Case. This has focussed on identifying an innovative funding solution that looks beyond City Deal funding to unlock the delivery of housing within Dunfermline. This is discussed in more detail below.
In total, £34.1m investment is required across nine individual projects to enable the delivery of the development sites that comprise the Dunfermline Strategic
Development Area (SDA). In total the Dunfermline SDA has the capacity to deliver more than 8,000 homes in addition to commercial development. This investment will also unlock housing sites in the wider area, by removing constraints on the local and regional transport network.
Investment in education provision at primary and secondary level is also required to enable the sites’ build out. However, the resolution of this constraint is being taken through a separate process. Dunfermline SDA is included among the strategic sites listed in the Edinburgh and South East Scotland City Region Deal. The relevant section of the deal document states:
“Collaboratively regional partners and Government will work together on:
• Developing risk-sharing guarantees on a site-by-site basis to support local authority borrowing and share the financing risk of infrastructure delivery required across strategic sites, starting with Winchburgh in 2018, where West Lothian Council has agreed guarantees for up to £150m of infrastructure investment with the Scottish Government. These will be repaid by developer contributions as set out in a complementary tripartite agreement between West Lothian Council, the lead developer and the Scottish Government.
• Seven strategic sites have been identified in SESplan as key areas of change and growth (Blindwells, Calderwood, Dunfermline, Edinburgh’s Waterfront, Shawfair, Tweedbank and Winchburgh). Business cases will be developed within the 15-year period of the City Region Deal, of which Winchburgh is likely to be the first. Taken together these sites will deliver over 41,000 new homes, create 7,800 jobs and contribute over £10 billion to the wider economy. The Scottish Government and city region commit to work together on each of these strategic housing sites recognising the longterm nature of these proposals with most new homes being delivered over a 15-year period.
To support this, the Scottish Government will commit at least £50 million. City Region partners will explore, with the Scottish Government, innovative
solutions to stimulate creative ideas, fresh thinking and innovation in the provision of housing. This collaboration will consider the evolving financial
landscape with the Scottish Government’s proposals to establish the Building Scotland Fund and Scottish National Investment Bank.”
Risk Sharing Workshop
SFT has participated in a series of workshops and meetings to support Fife Council as they refine and develop their ask of Scottish Government in relation to unlocking the delivery of Dunfermline.
This appendix reflects the discussion and conclusions of the risk appraisal workshop that took place at SFT’s offices on 3rd February 2020 and further discussion after the workshop. Therefore, the costs quoted do not reflect the September 2020 cost estimates.
Baseline Conditions & Key Considerations
1. There are three key principal parties that control the land to be built on in the northern and western expansion of Dunfermline. These are Taylor Wimpey,
Stirling Developments and I&H Brown.
2. I&H Brown own some of the land they will develop and they, along with the other developers, have options in place with landowners for the remaining land
to be developed.
3. Contributions towards STIM is just one cost faced by developers. The others include (inter alia) primary education, secondary education, transport infrastructure within their sites and the cost association with the ground conditions in the area due to previous undermining, which is requiring significant grouting to be carried out before development can commence.
4. Fife Council has made a commitment in policy to undertake the STIM projects that lie outwith developers’ sites. These STIM projects comprise of nine
projects, all established through transport appraisal work. It is the means of funding and delivering these nine STIM projects that this paper is concerned with.
5. The £34.1m cost of these projects will be recouped over time through developer contributions.
6. Most of the planning consents and Section 75 agreements around the SDA have already been granted/agreed. This means that the level of income Fife Council will secure from developer contributions is – for the most part - already fixed.
7. The amount Fife Council can receive from developer contribution to fund STIM has also been set in supplementary guidance. This amount is reflected in existing and emerging Section 75 agreements.
8. The £34.1m cost of the STIM projects has been determined by Fife Council through high level design and costing. The real cost of the project may be
higher. However, Fife Council cannot increase the level of developer contributions, if indeed the cost rises, as (as above) the amount to be paid by developers has already been agreed. The agreed level of developer contributions was based on the estimated £34.1m cost (2017 cost which is index linked in the financial model).
9. The requirement for Fife Council to lead the project and the multiplicity of sites are key factors in determining the most effective and most appropriate way
forward. It is approved Fife Council policy that Section 75 contributions for offsite transportation interventions in Dunfermline will be collected, held within the
Fife Infrastructure Investment Fund, and the funds drawn down as required for Fife Council to deliver the required infrastructure interventions
10. It was agreed that, given the number of sites and range of developers and landowners involved in Dunfermline SDA, the likelihood of the sites being
delivered in line with how they are currently profiled in the financial model – which reflects the contents of the most recent Housing Land Audit – is low.
11. It was also highlighted at the workshop that previous high levels of housing delivery – even through the global downturn after 2008 – was positively
influenced by the fact that key infrastructure such as roads and schools were already in place. The northern and western expansion of Dunfermline will be
more vulnerable to any downturn at the early stages of its build out if that infrastructure is not in place.
12. Finally, there is work being undertaken in parallel with Fife Council to address the other infrastructure barrier to delivery of the Dunfermline SDA, which is the
need to create additional education capacity. While a solution has been agreed with the private sector, this is currently being re-examined due to difficulties
associated with delivery. Therefore, resolving the STIMS project will not unlock Dunfermline SDA unless a solution to education provision is found in parallel.
The four options previously assessed by Fife Council were reviewed. No additional options were suggested by any party at the workshop.
1. Financial Transactions
Finance is available to developers through Financial Transactions monies. This can be offered to the private sector by the public sector through funds such as the Housing Infrastructure Fund (HIF) and the Building Scotland Fund (BSF). Finance must be offered on commercial terms, to ensure State Aid compliance.
This can be a useful source of finance where a developer does not have access to a good commercial rate through the market due to the nature of the developer (e.g. SME) or the nature of the work (not all banks offer finance for enabling infrastructure as investment is required ahead of returns in the form of housing sales).
How Financial Transitions Could Work
The Developer(s) undertakes and forward funds works up front and accesses finance for works through existing mechanisms (HIF and BSF).
• Developer borrows and assumes risk.
• No impact on public sector balance sheet.
• Fife Council has given policy commitment to lead project due to the multiplicity of sites and Fife Council cannot apply for financial transactions monies.
• Cumulative impacts – 8 projects with multiple developers contributing to each.
• Would require a lead developer/consortium with legal agreements for repayment.
• Less certainty on delivery.
Option for Dunfermline SDA?
Financial transactions monies (the option currently on the table for City Deal) is not an option for Dunfermline as this is only available to the private sector. Developers are already funding works within their sites in Dunfermline. The STIM projects must be led by Fife Council. Due to conditions on the Housing Infrastructure Fund and/or Building Scotland’s Future fund, Fife Council is unlikely to be able to access these for the delivery of market (non-affordable) housing projects. Therefore, financial transactions monies are not a viable option.
2. Risk Share with Private Sector Only
As part of the Winchburgh tripartite risk sharing arrangement under the E&SES City Deal, Winchburgh Developments Ltd (WDL) entered into a legal agreement whereby they guaranteed a baseline payment equivalent to one year’s developer contributions (based on 350 unit per annum) for the first three years of construction. Thereafter, WDL agreed to make available the equivalent of one year’s developer contributions (£850,000), which could be drawn down by West Lothian Council in the event there was a shortfall in developer contributions due to a slowdown in development below the baseline of 350 units per annum.
In effect, WDL guaranteed that West Lothian Council’s debt repayments for the delivery of a new high school would be covered for the first three years of construction and provided a stand-by facility that guaranteed up to £850,000 to make up any shortfall going forward. This was sufficient to cover potential shortfalls in contributions in all but the most extreme of circumstances (e.g. occupancy of homes dropping below 350 homes per annum sharply and for a prolonged period).
How the Private Sector Could Risk Share
Fife Council would act as lead developer for STIM, funding all capital works. The Council would put in place legal contracts with private sectors partners who agree to risk share through the provision of facilities as described above to reduce risk of underpayment of developer contributions. No Scottish Government role would be required.
• Fife Council – private sector share some of the risk around funding the development of STIMs.
• Deliverability - Private sector have no rationale to enter into risk share agreements as most site owners/operators have signed Section 75 agreements already that did not include this and Fife Council has agreed to fund STIM through agreed Section 75 payments. Not possible to revisit these retrospectively unless the private sector initiates this.
• Complexity – there are three major landowners, therefore requiring multiple contractual arrangements.
• Sufficiency – scenarios around under-delivery of homes have been run by Fife Council, however the quantum of contributions that would be generated by each
developer annually and the potential requirement regarding a stand-by facility has not been tested.
Option for Dunfermline SDA?
Any scope for a developer led risk share is very limited in Dunfermline. The only strategic site within the SDA that does not yet have a signed Section
75 agreement in place is Halbeath (Taylor Wimpey), although this is in its final stage of conclusion. Therefore, a risk share with the private sector is
not considered to be a viable option and another solution is sought which would allow investment to address the timing lag across all SDA sites.
3. Scottish Government Guarantee
Within the Edinburgh and South East Scotland City Region Deal, the Scottish Government undertook to develop risk-sharing guarantees on a site by site basis to
support local authority borrowing and share the financing risk of infrastructure delivery required across strategic sites, starting with Winchburgh in 2018, where West Lothian Council has agreed guarantees for up to £150m of infrastructure investment with the Scottish Government. These will be repaid by developer contributions as set out in a complementary tripartite agreement between West Lothian Council, the lead developer and the Scottish Government.
How a Scottish Government Guarantee Could Work Fife Council would fund all capital works, including the cash flow gap currently identified and act as lead developer. If a guarantee was made available, the Scottish Government would cover some/all (yet to be determined) of the cost of Fife Council’s debt repayments in the event of a shortfall in developer contributions.
On the basis of the Winchburgh guarantee, this form of risk share with the Scottish Government would be made available subject to a range of conditions including but not limited to:
• Only utilised in event of shortfall in developer contributions and where all other means of making up the deficit are exhausted.
• Guarantee is provided on commercial basis to ensure State Aid compliance – this would involve a facility fee and interest rate on sums drawn down to cover
• Support/risk share for the guarantee is provided via securities over land to the Scottish Government.
• The maximum/cumulative risk exposure would need to be calculated to establish how much of this Scottish Government would be able/willing to cover
and how long the guarantee might be made available for.
• Fife Council – remains lead developer, undertakes all borrowing but with less risk associated with it.
• Scottish Government – no impact on capital budget.
• Complexity of setting up a guarantee, with significant time and resources involved, particularly if the sum of money to be covered by the guarantee is
• Impact on Scottish Government contingent liability, which means a guarantee must go through a parliamentary approval process.
• Making guarantee available may not unlock this site on its own. This may be a deterrent from investing resources in this approach, unless a solution to education provision is agreed in advance.
Option for Dunfermline SDA?
Scottish Government officers have indicated that entering into a guarantee to enable the strategic growth of Dunfermline is unlikely to be an option. The reasoning for this being the large amount of work for the relatively small sums of money involved and the concern that any guarantee would run over a long-time frame, require Parliamentary approval and span multiple Parliamentary periods.
4. Increased Capital Grant Ask
One option discussed at the workshop was the scope for the Scottish Government to make a contribution to the capital cost of the STIM programme. The most critical project, which occurs relatively early in the programme and is therefore a higher risk element for Fife Council to fund, is the Northern Link Road (east end), which comprises a bridge over the railway to serve Halbeath (project 4 below highlighted in blue).
How an Increased Capital Grant Ask Council Work
Rather than seek funding for the cashflow gap identified through the business case financial model, Fife Council would make a business case to seek funding for a specific element of the STIM programme. Fife Council would then need to borrow less, and this removes the requirement for risk sharing or a guarantee.
25% of housing across the Dunfermline SDA will comprise of affordable housing. On that basis, one option to explore further is the utilisation of the Housing Infrastructure Fund to make a contribution towards the overall cost of the project that reflects the proportion of affordable housing to be delivered.
• Fife Council – Lower borrowing requirement/lower impact on revenue budget. May result in lower developer contribution ask (Fife Council would need to
establish if developers would need to be refunded if a surplus was generated by the programme with the additional of capital funding from Scottish Government).
• Scottish Government – avoids complexity/costs of guarantee while unlocking a critical element of the STIM programme.
• Northern Link Road may result in benefits to Network Rail and Transport Scotland.
• There may be scope for the City Deal funding to be repayable once developer contributions received.
• If it is repayable, there may be scope for this fund to be recycled, echoing how Highland Council has deployed its Evergreen Fund.2
• Scottish Government – impact on capital budget.
• When this was assessed in more detail, the proposal to fund a specific element of the STIM programme was not supported by the Scottish Government as it
would favour specific developers/sites and therefore fail the test of State Aid compliance.
Option for Dunfermline SDA?
Not under the initial proposal of funding a specific element of the STIM programme due to failing the test of State Aid compliance. However, through further discussion and informal feedback the State Aid unit has been provided on the basis of the provision of funding towards enabling infrastructure generally for the strategic growth of Dunfermline i.e. not a specific intervention. Such funding would be compliant as long as infrastructure was to benefit the whole of the
Dunfermline area i.e. funding was directed generally to the STIMS/public works and not directed to a specific intervention(s)/developer(s).
Since the workshop, the Evergreen funding approach has been further investigated. When assessing the timing of the STIM intervention delivery, the programme does not allow for the recycling of funding (a key component of Evergreen Funding) and therefore has been discounted by Fife Council and the Scottish Government as a viable funding option.
This revised option of funding towards enabling infrastructure generally for the strategic growth of Dunfermline offers the greatest potential to provide a funding
solution to the cashflow deficit of the STIM programme.
It was concluded through the options appraisal that a capital grant ask would be the most acceptable option to the Scottish Government and so confirmed the approach of the draft Business Case. In assessing a potential risk share with the Scottish Government, their position appears clear; there is no appetite for a guarantee.
Therefore, another approach was required to be explored to share the risk of the strategic growth of Dunfermline between the Council and the Scottish Government. It was agreed this should be progressed through the option of an increased capital grant as identified in Option 4 above.
No funding options in addition to those already highlighted in the draft Business Case were identified.
Appendix 8.15 Contract Management Team
BEng (Hons) in Civil Engineering
Chartered Civil Engineer Member of the Institution of Civil Engineers
Over 20 years' experience in the industry
BEng (Hons) in Civil & Transportation Engineering
Chartered Civil Engineer Member of the Institution of Civil Engineers
Accredited NEC Project Manager since 2014.
Over 20 years' experience in the industry
Construction projects the Project Manager has delivered valued at over £1M to date include:
• Roads Maintenance Contract – The City of Edinburgh Council (2004 – 2006) £2M
• Chapel Level Dualling, Kirkcaldy – Fife Council (2012) £3.8M
• Halbeath Park & Ride – Fife Council (2013) £10M
• The Cross, Cupar – Fife Council (2014) £1.6M
• Dunfermline Flood Prevention Scheme Phase 2 – Fife Council (2015) £2.5M
• Methil Low Carbon – Site Servicing – Fife Council (2015) £1.1M
• Kirkcaldy High Street Ph3 & Charlotte Street – Fife Council (2016) £1.1M
• Shorehead Leven Streetscape Improvements – Fife Council (2017) £1.3M
• Cowdenbeath High Street – Fife Council (2018) £1.6M
• The Waterfront, Kirkcaldy – Fife Council (current) £1.6M